Compendium › Reversion › AXP
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
AXP
Alpaca Tradeable

Reversion's Analysis

Last 6 Months: 2026-03-24 to present • 17 trades in period

-8.96%
Last 6 Months Return
$9,376.58
Current Value
41%
Win Rate
$10,299.83
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 0: RANGING
Signals generated 2026-09-24 21:42:53

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
44.7 neutral
20d Trend
-0.8%
5d Trend
+1.1%
EMA20 Dist
-0.8%
ATR%
2.1%
Range Pos
55%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
4/6

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

11
Lifetime
Confidence: 86%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
6.2/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
6.4/10
Raw Quality 12.6/100
× Confidence 0.86 = 10.8

30-Day Momentum

0
-8.2%
30d Return
0%
Win Rate
3
Trades
0.6×
Profit Factor
Quality: 0.0 Conf: 0.61×
Declining (-11 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (86%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
9,984
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-03-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
128 days
Data Gaps
None (5 market holidays)

Market Closed (5 days)

2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)

Period Start Capital
$10,299.83
Current Value
$9,376.58
Period P&L
$-923.25
Max Drawdown
-9.8%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.10

Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)

Trades in Period
17
Winners / Losers
7 / 10
Best Trade
+6.30%
Worst Trade
-9.07%
Avg Trade Return
-0.44%
Avg Hold Time
10.6d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$360,433.15
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-923.25
Net P&L (after fees)
$-923.25
Gross Return
-8.96%
Net Return (after fees)
-8.96%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 AXP Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 128 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 6 Months - 17 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Reversion had $10,299.83 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Mar 17, 2026 3:55pm ET $300.85 34 $10,228.90 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 27, 2026 3:55pm ET $292.46 34 $9,943.81 $10,051.46 $-285.09
(-2.8%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
2 🟢 BUY Apr 1, 2026 9:50am ET $300.70 33 $9,923.26 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET $319.66 33 $10,548.78 $10,676.98 +$625.52
(+6.3%) 		🎯 +5% Target
7d held
3 🟢 BUY Apr 9, 2026 9:30am ET $314.16 33 $10,367.32 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 15, 2026 9:35am ET $331.20 33 $10,929.76 $11,239.43 +$562.45
(+5.4%) 		🎯 +5% Target
6d held
4 🟢 BUY Apr 16, 2026 9:45am ET $328.58 34 $11,171.72 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 27, 2026 9:30am ET $313.02 34 $10,642.68 $10,710.39 $-529.04
(-4.7%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
11d held
5 🟢 BUY Apr 28, 2026 2:25pm ET $317.55 33 $10,479.15 — — —
🔴 SELL May 8, 2026 2:25pm ET $316.43 33 $10,442.35 $10,673.60 $-36.79
(-0.4%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
6 🟢 BUY May 11, 2026 3:10pm ET $312.03 34 $10,609.02 — — —
🔴 SELL May 21, 2026 3:10pm ET $309.71 34 $10,530.14 $10,594.72 $-78.88
(-0.7%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
7 🟢 BUY May 22, 2026 3:50pm ET $311.79 33 $10,289.07 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 1, 2026 3:50pm ET $313.26 33 $10,337.58 $10,643.23 +$48.51
(+0.5%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
8 🟢 BUY Jun 3, 2026 9:30am ET $309.73 34 $10,530.82 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 12, 2026 3:10pm ET $325.22 34 $11,057.48 $11,169.89 +$526.66
(+5.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
9.2d held
9 🟢 BUY Jun 15, 2026 3:55pm ET $335.49 33 $11,071.17 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 25, 2026 3:55pm ET $342.57 33 $11,304.81 $11,403.53 +$233.64
(+2.1%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
10 🟢 BUY Jun 15, 2026 3:55pm ET $335.49 33 $11,071.17 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 6, 2026 9:30am ET $354.06 33 $11,683.98 $12,016.34 +$612.81
(+5.5%) 		🎯 +5% Target
20.7d held
11 🟢 BUY Jul 7, 2026 10:00am ET $355.06 33 $11,716.98 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 17, 2026 10:00am ET $356.68 33 $11,770.44 $12,069.80 +$53.46
(+0.5%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
12 🟢 BUY Jul 20, 2026 10:05am ET $353.05 34 $12,003.87 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 24, 2026 9:30am ET $321.04 34 $10,915.36 $10,981.29 $-1,088.51
(-9.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
4d held
13 🟢 BUY Jul 7, 2026 10:00am ET $355.06 33 $11,716.98 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 30, 2026 9:35am ET $331.85 33 $10,950.89 $10,215.20 $-766.09
(-6.5%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
23d held
14 🟢 BUY Aug 3, 2026 3:55pm ET $343.63 29 $9,965.13 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 13, 2026 3:55pm ET $343.55 29 $9,962.95 $10,213.02 $-2.18
(-0.0%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
15 🟢 BUY Aug 17, 2026 9:30am ET $340.20 30 $10,206.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 27, 2026 9:30am ET $334.02 30 $10,020.60 $10,027.62 $-185.40
(-1.8%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
16 🟢 BUY Aug 31, 2026 9:30am ET $331.00 30 $9,930.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 10, 2026 9:30am ET $320.43 30 $9,612.90 $9,710.52 $-317.10
(-3.2%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
17 🟢 BUY Sep 11, 2026 2:15pm ET $324.69 29 $9,416.01 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 21, 2026 2:15pm ET $313.17 29 $9,082.07 $9,376.58 $-333.94
(-3.5%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $9,376.58
Net Profit/Loss: $-623.42
Total Return: -6.23%
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