Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-24 19:56:52

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
4.96%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.26%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
37.5 neutral
20d Trend
-7.1%
5d Trend
-7.2%
EMA20 Dist
-4.1%
ATR%
3.0%
Range Pos
19%
Bounce Ratio
0.5×
Green/Red 10d
5/5

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

16
Lifetime
Confidence: 82%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.5/35
Total Return
1.9/25
Win Rate
10.6/15
Profit Factor
0.1/15
Consistency
6.0/10
Raw Quality 19.1/100
× Confidence 0.82 = 15.7

30-Day Momentum

32
+4.2%
30d Return
100%
Win Rate
3
Trades
10.0×
Profit Factor
Quality: 51.9 Conf: 0.61×
Accelerating (+16 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (82%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
9,984
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-03-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
128 days
Data Gaps
None (5 market holidays)

Market Closed (5 days)

2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)

Period Start Capital
$10,418.83
Current Value
$10,071.05
Period P&L
$-347.78
Max Drawdown
-4.5%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.07

Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)

Trades in Period
17
Winners / Losers
10 / 7
Best Trade
+5.35%
Worst Trade
-7.02%
Avg Trade Return
-0.26%
Avg Hold Time
10.7d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$330,663.14
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-347.78
Net P&L (after fees)
$-347.78
Gross Return
-3.34%
Net Return (after fees)
-3.34%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 DIS Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 128 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 6 Months - 17 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Reversion had $10,418.83 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Mar 17, 2026 2:15pm ET $100.15 106 $10,615.90 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 27, 2026 10:05am ET $93.12 106 $9,870.72 $9,922.75 $-745.18
(-7.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
9.8d held
2 🟢 BUY Apr 1, 2026 12:25pm ET $96.95 102 $9,888.90 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 13, 2026 9:30am ET $98.91 102 $10,088.82 $10,122.67 +$199.92
(+2.0%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
11.9d held
3 🟢 BUY Apr 15, 2026 9:30am ET $102.20 99 $10,117.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 27, 2026 9:30am ET $102.62 99 $10,159.38 $10,164.25 +$41.58
(+0.4%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
12d held
4 🟢 BUY Apr 28, 2026 9:50am ET $101.17 100 $10,117.00 — — —
🔴 SELL May 6, 2026 9:30am ET $106.51 100 $10,651.50 $10,698.75 +$534.50
(+5.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
8d held
5 🟢 BUY May 7, 2026 12:45pm ET $109.70 97 $10,640.90 — — —
🔴 SELL May 18, 2026 9:30am ET $102.68 97 $9,960.44 $10,018.30 $-680.45
(-6.4%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
10.9d held
6 🟢 BUY May 19, 2026 9:30am ET $103.71 96 $9,956.16 — — —
🔴 SELL May 29, 2026 9:30am ET $103.25 96 $9,911.66 $9,973.80 $-44.50
(-0.4%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
7 🟢 BUY Jun 1, 2026 9:30am ET $101.66 98 $9,962.68 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 11, 2026 9:30am ET $98.59 98 $9,661.82 $9,672.94 $-300.86
(-3.0%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
8 🟢 BUY Jun 12, 2026 3:35pm ET $99.85 96 $9,585.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 22, 2026 3:35pm ET $102.22 96 $9,813.12 $9,900.46 +$227.52
(+2.4%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
9 🟢 BUY Jun 24, 2026 9:30am ET $103.10 96 $9,897.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 1, 2026 3:50pm ET $95.87 96 $9,203.52 $9,206.38 $-694.08
(-7.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
7.3d held
10 🟢 BUY Jul 6, 2026 9:55am ET $97.56 94 $9,170.17 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 16, 2026 9:55am ET $98.29 94 $9,239.26 $9,275.47 +$69.09
(+0.8%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
11 🟢 BUY Jul 17, 2026 10:20am ET $98.65 94 $9,273.10 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 27, 2026 10:20am ET $96.47 94 $9,068.65 $9,071.02 $-204.45
(-2.2%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
12 🟢 BUY Jul 6, 2026 9:55am ET $97.56 94 $9,170.17 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 30, 2026 9:30am ET $96.31 94 $9,053.14 $8,953.99 $-117.03
(-1.3%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
24d held
13 🟢 BUY Jul 31, 2026 10:20am ET $95.66 93 $8,896.38 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 5, 2026 9:30am ET $100.78 93 $9,372.08 $9,429.68 +$475.69
(+5.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
5d held
14 🟢 BUY Aug 10, 2026 9:30am ET $104.22 90 $9,380.25 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 20, 2026 9:30am ET $106.79 90 $9,611.10 $9,660.53 +$230.85
(+2.5%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
15 🟢 BUY Aug 21, 2026 1:35pm ET $107.08 90 $9,637.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 31, 2026 1:35pm ET $107.41 90 $9,666.90 $9,690.23 +$29.70
(+0.3%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
16 🟢 BUY Aug 21, 2026 1:35pm ET $107.08 90 $9,637.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 3, 2026 11:40am ET $107.80 90 $9,702.00 $9,755.03 +$64.80
(+0.7%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
12.9d held
17 🟢 BUY Sep 4, 2026 3:55pm ET $105.25 92 $9,683.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 14, 2026 3:55pm ET $108.68 92 $9,999.02 $10,071.05 +$316.02
(+3.3%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $10,071.05
Net Profit/Loss: +$71.05
Total Return: +0.71%
Back to Reversion