Compendium › Reversion › DKNG
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
DKNG
Alpaca Tradeable

Reversion's Analysis

Last 6 Months: 2026-03-24 to present • 25 trades in period

-12.68%
Last 6 Months Return
$7,129.86
Current Value
52%
Win Rate
$8,165.38
Period Start
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PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-24 23:56:43

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
22.5 oversold
20d Trend
-25.9%
5d Trend
-7.4%
EMA20 Dist
-13.7%
ATR%
5.3%
Range Pos
8%
Bounce Ratio
0.2×
Green/Red 10d
3/7

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

11
Lifetime
Confidence: 97%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
7.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.6/10
Raw Quality 11.5/100
× Confidence 0.97 = 11.2

30-Day Momentum

1
-9.1%
30d Return
25%
Win Rate
4
Trades
0.7×
Profit Factor
Quality: 1.4 Conf: 0.66×
Declining (-10 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (97%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
9,984
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-03-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
128 days
Data Gaps
None (5 market holidays)

Market Closed (5 days)

2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)

Period Start Capital
$8,165.38
Current Value
$7,129.86
Period P&L
$-1,035.53
Max Drawdown
-28.1%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.06

Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)

Trades in Period
25
Winners / Losers
13 / 12
Best Trade
+5.94%
Worst Trade
-8.69%
Avg Trade Return
-0.33%
Avg Hold Time
6d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$426,205.39
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-1,035.53
Net P&L (after fees)
$-1,035.53
Gross Return
-12.68%
Net Return (after fees)
-12.68%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 DKNG Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 128 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 6 Months - 25 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Reversion had $8,165.38 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Mar 24, 2026 9:40am ET $23.45 348 $8,160.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 25, 2026 1:20pm ET $21.80 348 $7,584.66 $7,589.44 $-575.94
(-7.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1.2d held
2 🟢 BUY Mar 27, 2026 9:30am ET $21.09 359 $7,573.10 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 1, 2026 9:35am ET $22.32 359 $8,012.88 $8,029.22 +$439.78
(+5.8%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5d held
3 🟢 BUY Apr 2, 2026 9:35am ET $22.01 364 $8,013.46 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 2, 2026 3:50pm ET $23.17 364 $8,432.06 $8,447.82 +$418.60
(+5.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
6.3h held
4 🟢 BUY Apr 7, 2026 2:05pm ET $22.92 368 $8,434.56 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 17, 2026 9:30am ET $24.11 368 $8,872.48 $8,885.74 +$437.92
(+5.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
9.8d held
5 🟢 BUY Apr 20, 2026 9:30am ET $22.58 393 $8,873.94 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 27, 2026 12:25pm ET $23.77 393 $9,343.57 $9,355.37 +$469.63
(+5.3%) 		🎯 +5% Target
7.1d held
6 🟢 BUY Apr 29, 2026 9:30am ET $23.05 405 $9,333.23 — — —
🔴 SELL May 6, 2026 9:30am ET $24.22 405 $9,809.10 $9,831.24 +$475.87
(+5.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
7d held
7 🟢 BUY May 11, 2026 9:30am ET $25.08 392 $9,829.40 — — —
🔴 SELL May 21, 2026 9:30am ET $24.78 392 $9,713.76 $9,715.60 $-115.64
(-1.2%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
8 🟢 BUY May 22, 2026 11:55am ET $25.65 378 $9,695.70 — — —
🔴 SELL May 26, 2026 3:50pm ET $23.83 378 $9,009.63 $9,029.53 $-686.07
(-7.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
4.2d held
9 🟢 BUY May 28, 2026 9:30am ET $24.68 365 $9,008.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 1, 2026 9:45am ET $26.14 365 $9,541.10 $9,562.43 +$532.90
(+5.9%) 		🎯 +5% Target
4d held
10 🟢 BUY Jun 2, 2026 1:30pm ET $25.50 374 $9,538.87 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 9, 2026 9:40am ET $27.02 374 $10,105.48 $10,129.04 +$566.61
(+5.9%) 		🎯 +5% Target
6.8d held
11 🟢 BUY Jun 10, 2026 3:25pm ET $28.92 350 $10,122.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 17, 2026 3:05pm ET $26.87 350 $9,404.50 $9,411.54 $-717.50
(-7.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
7d held
12 🟢 BUY Jun 22, 2026 9:30am ET $25.55 368 $9,402.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 25, 2026 11:00am ET $23.74 368 $8,736.36 $8,745.50 $-666.04
(-7.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
3.1d held
13 🟢 BUY Jun 26, 2026 1:15pm ET $24.40 358 $8,733.41 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 26, 2026 3:55pm ET $25.72 358 $9,207.76 $9,219.85 +$474.35
(+5.4%) 		🎯 +5% Target
2.7h held
14 🟢 BUY Jun 22, 2026 9:30am ET $25.55 368 $9,402.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 6, 2026 9:30am ET $25.68 368 $9,450.24 $9,267.69 +$47.84
(+0.5%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
14d held
15 🟢 BUY Jul 8, 2026 9:40am ET $26.66 347 $9,249.29 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 16, 2026 10:15am ET $24.78 347 $8,598.66 $8,617.07 $-650.63
(-7.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
8d held
16 🟢 BUY Jul 17, 2026 10:45am ET $24.08 357 $8,596.56 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 22, 2026 9:35am ET $22.36 357 $7,982.52 $8,003.03 $-614.04
(-7.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
5d held
17 🟢 BUY Jul 23, 2026 11:00am ET $22.50 355 $7,986.68 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 27, 2026 9:30am ET $23.73 355 $8,424.51 $8,440.85 +$437.82
(+5.5%) 		🎯 +5% Target
3.9d held
18 🟢 BUY Jul 8, 2026 9:40am ET $26.66 347 $9,249.29 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 30, 2026 9:35am ET $24.34 347 $8,445.98 $7,637.54 $-803.31
(-8.7%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
22d held
19 🟢 BUY Aug 3, 2026 10:35am ET $23.26 328 $7,628.62 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 5, 2026 1:50pm ET $21.62 328 $7,091.36 $7,100.28 $-537.26
(-7.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
2.1d held
20 🟢 BUY Aug 10, 2026 2:05pm ET $24.50 289 $7,080.53 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 12, 2026 1:30pm ET $25.74 289 $7,437.42 $7,457.17 +$356.89
(+5.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
2d held
21 🟢 BUY Aug 13, 2026 2:20pm ET $25.05 297 $7,438.37 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 14, 2026 2:20pm ET $26.35 297 $7,827.43 $7,846.24 +$389.07
(+5.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1d held
22 🟢 BUY Aug 17, 2026 3:20pm ET $25.33 309 $7,825.43 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 27, 2026 3:20pm ET $24.24 309 $7,488.62 $7,509.43 $-336.81
(-4.3%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
23 🟢 BUY Aug 31, 2026 9:30am ET $24.26 309 $7,496.34 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 10, 2026 9:30am ET $23.58 309 $7,286.22 $7,299.31 $-210.12
(-2.8%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
24 🟢 BUY Sep 14, 2026 9:45am ET $23.96 304 $7,283.84 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 15, 2026 2:25pm ET $25.21 304 $7,663.84 $7,679.31 +$380.00
(+5.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1.2d held
25 🟢 BUY Sep 17, 2026 1:20pm ET $23.23 330 $7,664.25 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 23, 2026 9:30am ET $21.56 330 $7,114.80 $7,129.86 $-549.45
(-7.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
5.8d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $7,129.86
Net Profit/Loss: $-2,870.14
Total Return: -28.70%
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