Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 4: RECOVERY
Signals generated 2026-05-09 08:31:41

Bounce in progress. Hold existing positions, let trailing stops manage exits.

Fear & Greed
38
Fear
VIX
17.1
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.41%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.49%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.75
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟠 2.6
Active
⛈️ 2 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
58.5 neutral
20d Trend
+2.0%
5d Trend
+2.1%
EMA20 Dist
+1.4%
ATR%
2.0%
Range Pos
82%
Bounce Ratio
0.9×
Green/Red 10d
5/5
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Active magnetosphere: slight tilt toward volume/macro strategies.

Strategy Score Scored May 9, 2026

13
Lifetime
Confidence: 77%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.4/35
Total Return
1.7/25
Win Rate
8.9/15
Profit Factor
0.1/15
Consistency
6.2/10
Raw Quality 17.2/100
× Confidence 0.77 = 13.3

30-Day Momentum

0
-0.9%
30d Return
33%
Win Rate
3
Trades
0.9×
Profit Factor
Quality: 0.0 Conf: 0.61×
Declining (-13 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (77%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
11,403
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-11-10 → 2026-05-08
Trading Days
135 days
Data Gaps
None (6 market holidays)

Market Closed (6 days)

2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)

Period Start Capital
$11,175.72
Current Value
$10,059.91
Period P&L
$-1,115.81
Max Drawdown
-2.4%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.57

Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)

Trades in Period
7
Winners / Losers
2 / 5
Best Trade
+3.23%
Worst Trade
-4.88%
Avg Trade Return
-1.49%
Avg Hold Time
7.2d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$102,952.14
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-1,115.81
Net P&L (after fees)
$-1,115.81
Gross Return
-9.98%
Net Return (after fees)
-9.98%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 HD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 135 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 6 Months - 7 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Reversion had $11,175.72 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Nov 18, 2025 9:30am ET $344.65 0 $0.00
🔴 SELL Nov 18, 2025 3:35pm ET $337.62 0 $0.00 $10,950.92 $-224.80
(-2.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Dec 8, 2025 9:35am ET $346.39 0 $0.00
🔴 SELL Dec 8, 2025 11:40am ET $349.91 0 $0.00 $11,060.04 +$109.12
(+1.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Mar 6, 2026 9:30am ET $357.00 30 $10,710.00
🔴 SELL Mar 16, 2026 10:30am ET $344.11 30 $10,323.30 $10,673.34 $-386.70
(-3.6%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
4 🟢 BUY Mar 17, 2026 1:30pm ET $341.63 31 $10,590.53
🔴 SELL Mar 27, 2026 1:30pm ET $324.95 31 $10,073.45 $10,156.26 $-517.08
(-4.9%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
5 🟢 BUY Mar 31, 2026 2:40pm ET $326.50 31 $10,121.50
🔴 SELL Apr 10, 2026 2:40pm ET $337.03 31 $10,447.93 $10,482.69 +$326.43
(+3.2%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
6 🟢 BUY Apr 14, 2026 12:55pm ET $341.06 30 $10,231.72
🔴 SELL Apr 24, 2026 12:55pm ET $336.89 30 $10,106.70 $10,357.67 $-125.02
(-1.2%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
7 🟢 BUY Apr 27, 2026 3:25pm ET $332.98 31 $10,322.38
🔴 SELL May 7, 2026 3:25pm ET $323.38 31 $10,024.63 $10,059.91 $-297.76
(-2.9%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $10,059.91
Net Profit/Loss: +$59.91
Total Return: +0.60%
Back to Reversion