MARA Reversion's Analysis
Last 6 Months: 2026-03-24 to present • 38 trades in period
-37.79%
Last 6 Months Return
$7,125.40
Current Value
50%
Win Rate
$11,453.98
Period Start
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
20.9 oversold
20d Trend
-40.9%
5d Trend
-30.4%
EMA20 Dist
-28.9%
ATR%
10.8%
Range Pos
1%
Bounce Ratio
0.2×
Green/Red 10d
2/8
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
14
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
8.3/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
5.8/10
Raw Quality
14.1/100
× Confidence 0.98
= 13.8
30-Day Momentum
29
+7.3%
30d Return
67%
Win Rate
6
Trades
1.2×
Profit Factor
Quality: 38.6
Conf: 0.74×
Accelerating (+15 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
9,984
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-03-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
128 days
Data Gaps
None (5 market holidays)
Market Closed (5 days)
2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)
Period Start Capital
$11,453.98
Current Value
$7,125.40
Period P&L
$-4,328.57
Max Drawdown
-27.5%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.15
Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)
Trades in Period
38
Winners / Losers
19 /
19
Best Trade
+7.88%
Worst Trade
-10.24%
Avg Trade Return
-1.00%
Avg Hold Time
2.4d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$798,625.26
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-4,328.57
Net P&L (after fees)
$-4,328.57
Gross Return
-37.79%
Net Return (after fees)
-37.79%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 MARA Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 128 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 6 Months - 38 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Reversion had $11,453.98 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 24, 2026 9:55am ET | $8.76 | 1,308 | $11,451.54 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 25, 2026 1:35pm ET | $8.14 | 1,308 | $10,640.58 | $10,643.02 |
$-810.96 (-7.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.2d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 26, 2026 1:40pm ET | $8.75 | 1,216 | $10,640.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2026 9:55am ET | $8.00 | 1,216 | $9,728.00 | $9,731.02 |
$-912.00 (-8.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20.3h held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 30, 2026 3:00pm ET | $7.74 | 1,256 | $9,727.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 31, 2026 2:45pm ET | $8.15 | 1,256 | $10,230.12 | $10,233.42 |
+$502.40 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.8h held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $7.79 | 1,313 | $10,228.27 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 2, 2026 10:45am ET | $8.26 | 1,313 | $10,838.82 | $10,843.97 |
+$610.55 (+6.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.3h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 6, 2026 12:55pm ET | $8.90 | 1,217 | $10,837.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2026 11:05am ET | $8.24 | 1,217 | $10,027.96 | $10,034.54 |
$-809.43 (-7.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.2h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 8, 2026 2:25pm ET | $9.43 | 1,064 | $10,033.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 9, 2026 12:20pm ET | $9.92 | 1,064 | $10,552.75 | $10,553.77 |
+$519.23 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
21.9h held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 13, 2026 9:30am ET | $9.31 | 1,134 | $10,551.87 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 13, 2026 10:30am ET | $9.87 | 1,134 | $11,192.58 | $11,194.48 |
+$640.71 (+6.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1h held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $11.30 | 990 | $11,190.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 22, 2026 10:00am ET | $11.92 | 990 | $11,800.80 | $11,804.62 |
+$610.14 (+5.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 23, 2026 1:20pm ET | $11.81 | 999 | $11,803.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 28, 2026 9:30am ET | $10.77 | 999 | $10,759.23 | $10,760.67 |
$-1,043.95 (-8.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.8d held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 29, 2026 9:35am ET | $10.73 | 1,003 | $10,757.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 30, 2026 9:40am ET | $11.47 | 1,003 | $11,504.41 | $11,507.90 |
+$747.23 (+6.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | May 1, 2026 11:35am ET | $11.99 | 959 | $11,503.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 6, 2026 9:35am ET | $12.94 | 959 | $12,409.75 | $12,414.44 |
+$906.54 (+7.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.9d held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | May 7, 2026 12:10pm ET | $12.65 | 981 | $12,404.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 8, 2026 1:50pm ET | $13.31 | 981 | $13,057.11 | $13,066.71 |
+$652.27 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | May 11, 2026 3:00pm ET | $13.50 | 967 | $13,054.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 12, 2026 10:20am ET | $12.52 | 967 | $12,102.01 | $12,114.22 |
$-952.49 (-7.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
19.3h held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | May 13, 2026 11:55am ET | $12.61 | 960 | $12,110.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 14, 2026 10:55am ET | $13.26 | 960 | $12,729.60 | $12,733.42 |
+$619.20 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23h held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | May 15, 2026 3:55pm ET | $12.41 | 1,025 | $12,725.37 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 20, 2026 10:20am ET | $13.07 | 1,025 | $13,396.75 | $13,404.79 |
+$671.37 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.8d held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | May 22, 2026 3:30pm ET | $13.78 | 972 | $13,392.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 26, 2026 9:35am ET | $14.52 | 972 | $14,108.58 | $14,120.57 |
+$715.78 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.8d held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | May 27, 2026 9:40am ET | $14.05 | 1,005 | $14,120.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 1, 2026 11:00am ET | $14.77 | 1,005 | $14,845.86 | $14,846.18 |
+$725.61 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5.1d held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 2, 2026 12:55pm ET | $14.53 | 1,021 | $14,840.23 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 4, 2026 9:40am ET | $13.38 | 1,021 | $13,660.98 | $13,666.93 |
$-1,179.25 (-7.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 5, 2026 9:40am ET | $12.89 | 1,060 | $13,658.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 5, 2026 2:15pm ET | $11.96 | 1,060 | $12,677.71 | $12,686.54 |
$-980.39 (-7.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.6h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 10, 2026 11:00am ET | $13.03 | 973 | $12,678.19 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 12, 2026 9:30am ET | $13.70 | 973 | $13,330.10 | $13,338.45 |
+$651.91 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 15, 2026 2:40pm ET | $14.83 | 899 | $13,332.17 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 22, 2026 9:50am ET | $15.96 | 899 | $14,348.04 | $14,354.32 |
+$1,015.87 (+7.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
6.8d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 24, 2026 9:45am ET | $14.31 | 1,002 | $14,343.63 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 25, 2026 9:50am ET | $13.23 | 1,002 | $13,256.46 | $13,267.15 |
$-1,087.17 (-7.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 26, 2026 2:40pm ET | $14.56 | 910 | $13,254.15 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 29, 2026 10:05am ET | $13.53 | 910 | $12,311.03 | $12,324.03 |
$-943.12 (-7.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8d held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 30, 2026 12:15pm ET | $13.41 | 919 | $12,323.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 2, 2026 12:25pm ET | $12.43 | 919 | $11,418.58 | $11,418.72 |
$-905.31 (-7.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 7, 2026 9:30am ET | $12.67 | 901 | $11,415.67 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $11.73 | 901 | $10,568.73 | $10,571.78 |
$-846.94 (-7.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 9, 2026 2:00pm ET | $13.18 | 802 | $10,566.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 13, 2026 9:40am ET | $12.24 | 802 | $9,816.40 | $9,821.83 |
$-749.95 (-7.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.8d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 14, 2026 10:00am ET | $11.92 | 823 | $9,810.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $10.70 | 823 | $8,806.10 | $8,817.69 |
$-1,004.14 (-10.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 21, 2026 1:45pm ET | $12.51 | 705 | $8,816.03 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 27, 2026 10:40am ET | $11.48 | 705 | $8,093.54 | $8,095.20 |
$-722.48 (-8.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.9d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 28, 2026 1:50pm ET | $11.19 | 723 | $8,090.37 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 29, 2026 11:45am ET | $10.40 | 723 | $7,519.20 | $7,524.03 |
$-571.17 (-7.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21.9h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 31, 2026 9:50am ET | $11.57 | 650 | $7,523.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 7, 2026 9:35am ET | $10.45 | 650 | $6,792.50 | $6,792.78 |
$-731.25 (-9.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
7d held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 10, 2026 9:45am ET | $9.73 | 697 | $6,785.29 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 14, 2026 9:30am ET | $9.01 | 697 | $6,279.97 | $6,287.46 |
$-505.32 (-7.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4d held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 18, 2026 9:45am ET | $9.24 | 680 | $6,283.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 19, 2026 11:45am ET | $9.76 | 680 | $6,636.80 | $6,641.06 |
+$353.60 (+5.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 24, 2026 3:40pm ET | $11.16 | 595 | $6,640.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 25, 2026 10:30am ET | $11.85 | 595 | $7,050.75 | $7,051.61 |
+$410.55 (+6.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
18.8h held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 27, 2026 3:35pm ET | $11.91 | 592 | $7,050.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 28, 2026 10:10am ET | $10.99 | 592 | $6,506.08 | $6,507.03 |
$-544.58 (-7.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18.6h held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 1, 2026 9:30am ET | $10.45 | 622 | $6,499.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 3, 2026 10:15am ET | $11.18 | 622 | $6,950.85 | $6,957.98 |
+$450.95 (+6.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 4, 2026 3:40pm ET | $11.24 | 618 | $6,949.41 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 8, 2026 11:15am ET | $11.82 | 618 | $7,307.85 | $7,316.42 |
+$358.44 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.8d held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 9, 2026 3:35pm ET | $11.83 | 618 | $7,310.94 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 15, 2026 2:50pm ET | $10.97 | 618 | $6,776.37 | $6,781.85 |
$-534.57 (-7.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6d held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 16, 2026 2:55pm ET | $10.94 | 619 | $6,771.86 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 17, 2026 9:35am ET | $11.49 | 619 | $7,115.40 | $7,125.40 |
+$343.55 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
18.7h held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$7,125.40
Net Profit/Loss:
$-2,874.60
Total Return:
-28.75%