MRNA Reversion's Analysis
Last 6 Months: 2026-03-25 to present • 38 trades in period
+169.93%
Last 6 Months Return
$27,453.26
Current Value
66%
Win Rate
$10,170.64
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
45 neutral
20d Trend
-0.3%
5d Trend
-10.0%
EMA20 Dist
-6.7%
ATR%
7.8%
Range Pos
52%
Bounce Ratio
0.4×
Green/Red 10d
3/7
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
69
Lifetime
Confidence: 100%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
31.7/35
Total Return
18.3/25
Win Rate
9.4/15
Profit Factor
5.3/15
Consistency
4.9/10
Raw Quality
69.6/100
× Confidence 1.00
= 69.3
30-Day Momentum
40
+12.6%
30d Return
71%
Win Rate
7
Trades
1.5×
Profit Factor
Quality: 51.7
Conf: 0.78×
Declining (-29 vs lifetime)
Momentum meets PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (100%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
9,906
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-03-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
127 days
Data Gaps
None (5 market holidays)
Market Closed (5 days)
2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)
Period Start Capital
$10,170.64
Current Value
$27,453.26
Period P&L
$17,282.63
Max Drawdown
-17.6%
Sharpe Ratio
0.24
Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)
Trades in Period
38
Winners / Losers
25 /
13
Best Trade
+86.36%
Worst Trade
-8.62%
Avg Trade Return
+3.55%
Avg Hold Time
2.9d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,011,739.16
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$17,282.63
Net P&L (after fees)
$17,282.63
Gross Return
+169.93%
Net Return (after fees)
+169.93%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 MRNA Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 127 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 6 Months - 38 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Reversion had $10,170.64 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 23, 2026 3:55pm ET | $51.26 | 191 | $9,790.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 25, 2026 12:45pm ET | $53.97 | 191 | $10,308.75 | $10,343.36 |
+$518.09 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 27, 2026 10:00am ET | $52.80 | 195 | $10,296.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 30, 2026 10:10am ET | $49.00 | 195 | $9,555.00 | $9,602.36 |
$-741.00 (-7.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 2:25pm ET | $50.65 | 189 | $9,572.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 13, 2026 9:30am ET | $50.99 | 189 | $9,637.11 | $9,666.62 |
+$64.26 (+0.7%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
11.8d held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 14, 2026 1:00pm ET | $52.49 | 184 | $9,658.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $55.50 | 184 | $10,212.00 | $10,220.46 |
+$553.84 (+5.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.9d held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 20, 2026 11:10am ET | $54.17 | 188 | $10,183.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 27, 2026 9:40am ET | $50.37 | 188 | $9,469.56 | $9,506.06 |
$-714.40 (-7.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6.9d held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 28, 2026 9:45am ET | $48.28 | 196 | $9,461.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 29, 2026 11:05am ET | $44.81 | 196 | $8,782.76 | $8,826.92 |
$-679.14 (-7.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 30, 2026 11:40am ET | $47.01 | 187 | $8,789.94 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 7, 2026 9:30am ET | $51.69 | 187 | $9,666.96 | $9,703.95 |
+$877.03 (+10.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
6.9d held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | May 8, 2026 2:40pm ET | $53.60 | 181 | $9,700.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 11, 2026 9:30am ET | $58.45 | 181 | $10,579.45 | $10,582.70 |
+$878.75 (+9.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.8d held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | May 13, 2026 9:30am ET | $52.87 | 200 | $10,574.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 15, 2026 9:30am ET | $48.31 | 200 | $9,663.00 | $9,671.50 |
$-911.20 (-8.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | May 18, 2026 2:10pm ET | $47.98 | 201 | $9,643.98 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 28, 2026 2:10pm ET | $46.88 | 201 | $9,422.88 | $9,450.40 |
$-221.10 (-2.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | May 29, 2026 2:45pm ET | $47.98 | 196 | $9,404.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 1, 2026 10:05am ET | $44.47 | 196 | $8,716.12 | $8,762.44 |
$-687.96 (-7.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8d held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 2, 2026 12:25pm ET | $44.56 | 196 | $8,733.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 3, 2026 11:15am ET | $46.85 | 196 | $9,182.60 | $9,211.28 |
+$448.84 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22.8h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 5, 2026 9:35am ET | $50.67 | 181 | $9,171.27 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 5, 2026 2:30pm ET | $47.06 | 181 | $8,518.76 | $8,558.78 |
$-652.50 (-7.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.9h held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 10, 2026 9:30am ET | $47.03 | 181 | $8,512.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 11, 2026 3:05pm ET | $49.55 | 181 | $8,968.10 | $9,014.57 |
+$455.79 (+5.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.2d held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 12, 2026 3:50pm ET | $49.79 | 181 | $9,011.99 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 16, 2026 9:30am ET | $52.66 | 181 | $9,531.46 | $9,534.04 |
+$519.47 (+5.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.7d held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 22, 2026 9:35am ET | $61.31 | 155 | $9,502.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 26, 2026 9:55am ET | $65.58 | 155 | $10,164.90 | $10,196.67 |
+$662.63 (+7.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4d held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 29, 2026 1:40pm ET | $67.94 | 150 | $10,191.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 30, 2026 9:30am ET | $71.51 | 150 | $10,727.25 | $10,732.91 |
+$536.25 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
19.8h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 1, 2026 1:55pm ET | $73.11 | 146 | $10,674.06 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 2, 2026 9:40am ET | $77.03 | 146 | $11,246.38 | $11,305.23 |
+$572.32 (+5.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
19.8h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 7, 2026 10:00am ET | $79.27 | 142 | $11,256.34 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 8, 2026 3:45pm ET | $73.71 | 142 | $10,466.82 | $10,515.71 |
$-789.52 (-7.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.2d held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 10, 2026 9:35am ET | $73.45 | 143 | $10,502.99 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 10, 2026 11:05am ET | $68.01 | 143 | $9,725.43 | $9,738.15 |
$-777.56 (-7.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.5h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 13, 2026 12:25pm ET | $68.03 | 143 | $9,727.58 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 16, 2026 3:15pm ET | $63.19 | 143 | $9,036.17 | $9,046.74 |
$-691.41 (-7.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.1d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 17, 2026 3:30pm ET | $61.47 | 147 | $9,036.09 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 23, 2026 11:15am ET | $57.02 | 147 | $8,381.94 | $8,392.59 |
$-654.15 (-7.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.8d held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 27, 2026 11:55am ET | $55.39 | 151 | $8,363.89 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 31, 2026 9:45am ET | $58.74 | 151 | $8,869.74 | $8,898.44 |
+$505.85 (+6.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.9d held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 3, 2026 3:55pm ET | $55.35 | 160 | $8,856.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 4, 2026 9:40am ET | $58.16 | 160 | $9,305.60 | $9,348.04 |
+$449.60 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
17.8h held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 5, 2026 1:30pm ET | $56.53 | 165 | $9,327.45 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 10, 2026 9:30am ET | $59.55 | 165 | $9,825.75 | $9,846.34 |
+$498.30 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.8d held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 11, 2026 1:20pm ET | $59.17 | 166 | $9,821.39 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 12, 2026 10:55am ET | $62.13 | 166 | $10,313.58 | $10,338.53 |
+$492.19 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
21.6h held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 14, 2026 9:35am ET | $61.71 | 167 | $10,305.57 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 17, 2026 10:20am ET | $64.87 | 167 | $10,833.32 | $10,866.28 |
+$527.75 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3d held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 18, 2026 1:40pm ET | $63.37 | 171 | $10,836.27 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 19, 2026 9:30am ET | $118.10 | 171 | $20,195.00 | $20,225.01 |
+$9,358.73 (+86.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
19.8h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 20, 2026 12:25pm ET | $133.60 | 151 | $20,173.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 21, 2026 9:35am ET | $144.45 | 151 | $21,811.95 | $21,863.36 |
+$1,638.35 (+8.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
21.2h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 24, 2026 9:35am ET | $133.76 | 163 | $21,802.07 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 24, 2026 11:55am ET | $140.91 | 163 | $22,969.14 | $23,030.44 |
+$1,167.08 (+5.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.3h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $155.44 | 148 | $23,005.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $143.90 | 148 | $21,297.21 | $21,322.53 |
$-1,707.91 (-7.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 28, 2026 9:30am ET | $136.56 | 156 | $21,303.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 31, 2026 10:10am ET | $143.87 | 156 | $22,443.72 | $22,462.89 |
+$1,140.36 (+5.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3d held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 28, 2026 9:30am ET | $136.56 | 156 | $21,303.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 3, 2026 11:40am ET | $144.78 | 156 | $22,585.68 | $23,745.21 |
+$1,282.32 (+6.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
6.1d held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 8, 2026 9:35am ET | $143.05 | 165 | $23,603.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 10, 2026 9:30am ET | $131.29 | 165 | $21,662.03 | $21,803.99 |
$-1,941.22 (-8.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 11, 2026 2:45pm ET | $146.90 | 148 | $21,741.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 17, 2026 9:40am ET | $154.78 | 148 | $22,907.44 | $22,970.23 |
+$1,166.24 (+5.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5.8d held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 18, 2026 3:50pm ET | $151.02 | 152 | $22,955.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 21, 2026 9:30am ET | $161.52 | 152 | $24,551.80 | $24,566.99 |
+$1,596.76 (+7.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.7d held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 22, 2026 9:30am ET | $169.56 | 144 | $24,416.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 22, 2026 10:05am ET | $179.06 | 144 | $25,784.34 | $25,934.69 |
+$1,367.70 (+5.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
35m held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 23, 2026 2:00pm ET | $183.30 | 141 | $25,845.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 24, 2026 3:10pm ET | $194.07 | 141 | $27,363.87 | $27,453.26 |
+$1,518.57 (+5.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$27,453.26
Net Profit/Loss:
+$17,453.26
Total Return:
+174.53%