Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 04:07:06

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 2.8
Storm
⛈️ 1 storm day in 7d
RSI(14)
39 neutral
20d Trend
-6.5%
5d Trend
-4.3%
EMA20 Dist
-3.4%
ATR%
2.4%
Range Pos
56%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
5/5
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

23
Lifetime
Confidence: 88%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
3.7/35
Total Return
9.7/25
Win Rate
5.5/15
Profit Factor
1.4/15
Consistency
5.6/10
Raw Quality 25.9/100
× Confidence 0.88 = 22.9

30-Day Momentum

0
-4.2%
30d Return
0%
Win Rate
3
Trades
0.6×
Profit Factor
Quality: 0.0 Conf: 0.61×
Declining (-23 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (88%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
9,906
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-03-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
127 days
Data Gaps
None (5 market holidays)

Market Closed (5 days)

2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)

Period Start Capital
$9,889.13
Current Value
$11,362.68
Period P&L
$1,473.55
Max Drawdown
-12.8%
Sharpe Ratio
0.20

Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)

Trades in Period
18
Winners / Losers
10 / 8
Best Trade
+6.82%
Worst Trade
-7.26%
Avg Trade Return
+0.89%
Avg Hold Time
8.9d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$419,128.13
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$1,473.55
Net P&L (after fees)
$1,473.55
Gross Return
+14.90%
Net Return (after fees)
+14.90%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 MS Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 127 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 6 Months - 18 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Reversion had $9,889.13 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Mar 25, 2026 11:10am ET $164.52 60 $9,871.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 6, 2026 9:30am ET $166.98 60 $10,018.79 $10,036.72 +$147.59
(+1.5%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
11.9d held
2 🟢 BUY Apr 7, 2026 9:35am ET $165.66 60 $9,939.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET $176.96 60 $10,617.60 $10,714.72 +$678.00
(+6.8%)
🎯 +5% Target
23.9h held
3 🟢 BUY Apr 9, 2026 9:30am ET $175.31 61 $10,693.91 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 14, 2026 11:35am ET $184.54 61 $11,256.94 $11,277.75 +$563.03
(+5.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
5.1d held
4 🟢 BUY Apr 15, 2026 3:45pm ET $191.16 58 $11,087.57 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 27, 2026 9:30am ET $189.61 58 $10,997.38 $11,187.56 $-90.19
(-0.8%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
11.7d held
5 🟢 BUY Apr 29, 2026 9:35am ET $188.50 59 $11,121.50 — — —
🔴 SELL May 11, 2026 9:30am ET $192.53 59 $11,359.27 $11,425.33 +$237.77
(+2.1%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
12d held
6 🟢 BUY May 12, 2026 9:30am ET $187.83 60 $11,269.80 — — —
🔴 SELL May 20, 2026 12:45pm ET $197.43 60 $11,845.50 $12,001.03 +$575.70
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
8.1d held
7 🟢 BUY May 22, 2026 3:05pm ET $201.94 59 $11,914.46 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 1, 2026 3:05pm ET $211.60 59 $12,484.69 $12,571.26 +$570.23
(+4.8%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
8 🟢 BUY Jun 2, 2026 3:45pm ET $215.63 58 $12,506.54 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 12, 2026 3:45pm ET $214.35 58 $12,432.30 $12,497.02 $-74.24
(-0.6%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
9 🟢 BUY Jun 15, 2026 3:55pm ET $217.95 57 $12,423.15 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 18, 2026 9:50am ET $229.04 57 $13,055.00 $13,128.87 +$631.85
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.7d held
10 🟢 BUY Jun 23, 2026 9:30am ET $223.70 58 $12,974.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 1, 2026 9:30am ET $208.04 58 $12,066.32 $12,220.59 $-908.28
(-7.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
8d held
11 🟢 BUY Jul 6, 2026 1:40pm ET $220.43 55 $12,123.65 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 14, 2026 10:10am ET $232.10 55 $12,765.64 $12,862.58 +$641.99
(+5.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
7.9d held
12 🟢 BUY Jul 15, 2026 11:35am ET $225.23 57 $12,837.83 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 17, 2026 9:30am ET $208.88 57 $11,906.16 $11,930.91 $-931.67
(-7.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held
13 🟢 BUY Jul 6, 2026 1:40pm ET $220.43 55 $12,123.65 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 30, 2026 9:30am ET $206.50 55 $11,357.50 $11,164.76 $-766.15
(-6.3%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
23.8d held
14 🟢 BUY Jul 31, 2026 10:10am ET $208.97 53 $11,075.41 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 5, 2026 1:40pm ET $219.47 53 $11,631.91 $11,721.26 +$556.50
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
5.1d held
15 🟢 BUY Aug 6, 2026 3:00pm ET $215.25 54 $11,623.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 17, 2026 9:30am ET $217.96 54 $11,769.84 $11,867.60 +$146.34
(+1.3%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
10.8d held
16 🟢 BUY Aug 18, 2026 9:30am ET $216.75 54 $11,704.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 28, 2026 9:30am ET $215.40 54 $11,631.60 $11,794.70 $-72.90
(-0.6%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
17 🟢 BUY Aug 31, 2026 9:30am ET $213.80 55 $11,759.27 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 10, 2026 9:30am ET $213.61 55 $11,748.55 $11,783.98 $-10.72
(-0.1%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
18 🟢 BUY Sep 11, 2026 3:45pm ET $214.13 55 $11,777.15 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 21, 2026 3:45pm ET $206.47 55 $11,355.85 $11,362.68 $-421.30
(-3.6%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $11,362.68
Net Profit/Loss: +$1,362.68
Total Return: +13.63%
Back to Reversion