MU Reversion's Analysis
Last 6 Months: 2026-03-25 to present • 40 trades in period
-3.76%
Last 6 Months Return
$12,986.72
Current Value
55%
Win Rate
$13,493.60
Period Start
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
37.4 neutral
20d Trend
-12.8%
5d Trend
-1.7%
EMA20 Dist
-6.9%
ATR%
5.6%
Range Pos
6%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
3/7
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
37
Lifetime
Confidence: 97%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
8.4/35
Total Return
12.4/25
Win Rate
10.3/15
Profit Factor
0.7/15
Consistency
5.9/10
Raw Quality
37.7/100
× Confidence 0.97
= 36.6
30-Day Momentum
Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (97%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
9,906
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-03-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
127 days
Data Gaps
None (5 market holidays)
Market Closed (5 days)
2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)
Period Start Capital
$13,493.60
Current Value
$12,986.72
Period P&L
$-506.89
Max Drawdown
-12.4%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.01
Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)
Trades in Period
40
Winners / Losers
22 /
18
Best Trade
+19.15%
Worst Trade
-10.02%
Avg Trade Return
-0.05%
Avg Hold Time
2.2d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,263,232.49
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-506.89
Net P&L (after fees)
$-506.89
Gross Return
-3.76%
Net Return (after fees)
-3.76%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 MU Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 127 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 6 Months - 40 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Reversion had $13,493.60 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 23, 2026 11:40am ET | $411.02 | 35 | $14,385.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 25, 2026 9:30am ET | $381.95 | 35 | $13,368.25 | $13,631.85 |
$-1,017.45 (-7.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $367.71 | 37 | $13,605.45 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 30, 2026 10:30am ET | $340.44 | 37 | $12,596.28 | $12,622.68 |
$-1,009.17 (-7.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4d held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 31, 2026 11:50am ET | $316.86 | 39 | $12,357.73 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 31, 2026 3:00pm ET | $332.77 | 39 | $12,978.03 | $13,242.97 |
+$620.29 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.2h held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $340.91 | 38 | $12,954.43 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 2, 2026 10:10am ET | $358.14 | 38 | $13,609.32 | $13,897.86 |
+$654.89 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
40m held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 6, 2026 1:15pm ET | $377.93 | 36 | $13,605.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $414.18 | 36 | $14,910.66 | $15,203.04 |
+$1,305.18 (+9.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.8d held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 10, 2026 9:40am ET | $410.40 | 37 | $15,184.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 14, 2026 9:30am ET | $436.00 | 37 | $16,132.00 | $16,150.24 |
+$947.20 (+6.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4d held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 15, 2026 10:05am ET | $449.54 | 35 | $15,733.73 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 22, 2026 10:30am ET | $474.45 | 35 | $16,605.92 | $17,022.44 |
+$872.20 (+5.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
7d held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 23, 2026 1:45pm ET | $475.27 | 35 | $16,634.62 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 24, 2026 10:10am ET | $499.12 | 35 | $17,469.20 | $17,857.02 |
+$834.58 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
20.4h held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 28, 2026 9:30am ET | $502.27 | 35 | $17,579.45 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 29, 2026 9:30am ET | $527.40 | 35 | $18,459.00 | $18,736.57 |
+$879.55 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | May 1, 2026 9:30am ET | $511.03 | 36 | $18,397.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 1, 2026 9:55am ET | $537.09 | 36 | $19,335.42 | $19,674.91 |
+$938.34 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
25m held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | May 7, 2026 9:30am ET | $651.88 | 30 | $19,556.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 8, 2026 9:35am ET | $692.23 | 30 | $20,766.77 | $20,885.28 |
+$1,210.37 (+6.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | May 12, 2026 9:30am ET | $772.13 | 27 | $20,847.51 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 12, 2026 12:35pm ET | $715.30 | 27 | $19,313.23 | $19,351.00 |
$-1,534.28 (-7.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.1h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | May 14, 2026 9:30am ET | $787.68 | 24 | $18,904.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 15, 2026 9:30am ET | $731.76 | 24 | $17,562.24 | $18,008.92 |
$-1,342.08 (-7.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | May 18, 2026 10:00am ET | $715.19 | 25 | $17,879.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 18, 2026 2:50pm ET | $664.38 | 25 | $16,609.38 | $16,738.54 |
$-1,270.38 (-7.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.8h held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | May 19, 2026 2:55pm ET | $706.67 | 23 | $16,253.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 21, 2026 9:40am ET | $746.97 | 23 | $17,180.35 | $17,665.57 |
+$927.03 (+5.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.8d held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | May 28, 2026 9:50am ET | $906.06 | 19 | $17,215.14 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 29, 2026 9:30am ET | $956.39 | 19 | $18,171.41 | $18,621.84 |
+$956.27 (+5.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.7h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 2, 2026 9:35am ET | $1,022.36 | 18 | $18,402.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 2, 2026 3:45pm ET | $1,073.82 | 18 | $19,328.76 | $19,548.12 |
+$926.28 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
6.2h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 4, 2026 9:30am ET | $1,013.98 | 19 | $19,265.62 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 5, 2026 9:40am ET | $935.16 | 19 | $17,767.95 | $18,050.45 |
$-1,497.67 (-7.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 8, 2026 3:00pm ET | $942.97 | 19 | $17,916.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 9, 2026 12:20pm ET | $862.89 | 19 | $16,394.91 | $16,528.84 |
$-1,521.61 (-8.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21.3h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 12, 2026 2:20pm ET | $989.45 | 16 | $15,831.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 15, 2026 9:30am ET | $1,055.02 | 16 | $16,880.32 | $17,577.96 |
+$1,049.12 (+6.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.8d held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 16, 2026 10:30am ET | $1,068.41 | 16 | $17,094.61 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 18, 2026 10:25am ET | $1,123.94 | 16 | $17,983.04 | $18,466.39 |
+$888.43 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 22, 2026 11:35am ET | $1,174.46 | 15 | $17,616.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $1,078.93 | 15 | $16,183.88 | $17,033.37 |
$-1,433.02 (-8.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21.9h held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 24, 2026 11:25am ET | $1,030.73 | 16 | $16,491.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 25, 2026 9:30am ET | $1,228.15 | 16 | $19,650.32 | $20,192.01 |
+$3,158.64 (+19.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22.1h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $1,136.76 | 17 | $19,324.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 29, 2026 10:05am ET | $1,053.29 | 17 | $17,905.85 | $18,772.94 |
$-1,419.07 (-7.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 30, 2026 2:10pm ET | $1,146.35 | 16 | $18,341.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 1, 2026 10:30am ET | $1,065.50 | 16 | $17,048.00 | $17,479.34 |
$-1,293.60 (-7.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20.3h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 2, 2026 10:30am ET | $1,007.27 | 17 | $17,123.59 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 7, 2026 9:30am ET | $917.57 | 17 | $15,598.69 | $15,954.44 |
$-1,524.90 (-8.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 9, 2026 2:40pm ET | $1,012.39 | 15 | $15,185.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 13, 2026 9:30am ET | $916.62 | 15 | $13,749.31 | $14,517.90 |
$-1,436.54 (-9.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.8d held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 14, 2026 2:25pm ET | $982.35 | 14 | $13,752.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 15, 2026 10:35am ET | $908.14 | 14 | $12,713.96 | $13,478.96 |
$-1,038.94 (-7.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20.2h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 16, 2026 1:15pm ET | $845.17 | 15 | $12,677.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 17, 2026 12:05pm ET | $887.85 | 15 | $13,317.75 | $14,119.16 |
+$640.20 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22.8h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 20, 2026 2:15pm ET | $881.22 | 16 | $14,099.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 21, 2026 9:30am ET | $931.08 | 16 | $14,897.20 | $14,916.85 |
+$797.68 (+5.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
19.3h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 22, 2026 9:30am ET | $951.42 | 15 | $14,271.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 23, 2026 10:25am ET | $999.00 | 15 | $14,985.00 | $15,630.55 |
+$713.70 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 24, 2026 2:10pm ET | $924.12 | 16 | $14,785.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 27, 2026 10:40am ET | $859.35 | 16 | $13,749.60 | $14,594.23 |
$-1,036.32 (-7.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 28, 2026 1:40pm ET | $812.41 | 17 | $13,810.97 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 29, 2026 3:35pm ET | $751.60 | 17 | $12,777.20 | $13,560.46 |
$-1,033.77 (-7.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 31, 2026 10:10am ET | $830.92 | 16 | $13,294.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 4, 2026 9:35am ET | $873.93 | 16 | $13,982.88 | $14,248.62 |
+$688.16 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4d held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 5, 2026 3:45pm ET | $909.60 | 15 | $13,644.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $841.43 | 15 | $12,621.45 | $13,226.07 |
$-1,022.55 (-7.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
17.8h held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 7, 2026 9:40am ET | $878.97 | 15 | $13,184.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 12, 2026 9:50am ET | $927.25 | 15 | $13,908.75 | $13,950.27 |
+$724.20 (+5.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5d held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 13, 2026 3:30pm ET | $956.33 | 14 | $13,388.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 17, 2026 9:35am ET | $1,010.48 | 14 | $14,146.72 | $14,708.33 |
+$758.06 (+5.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.8d held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 18, 2026 9:35am ET | $974.00 | 15 | $14,610.01 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 24, 2026 9:40am ET | $902.50 | 15 | $13,537.50 | $13,635.82 |
$-1,072.51 (-7.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6d held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 26, 2026 3:55pm ET | $934.54 | 14 | $13,083.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 4, 2026 9:35am ET | $989.50 | 14 | $13,852.94 | $14,405.20 |
+$769.38 (+5.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
8.7d held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 8, 2026 3:05pm ET | $1,011.00 | 14 | $14,154.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 14, 2026 9:30am ET | $909.68 | 14 | $12,735.52 | $12,986.72 |
$-1,418.48 (-10.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.8d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$12,986.72
Net Profit/Loss:
+$2,986.72
Total Return:
+29.87%