Compendium › Reversion › NIO
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
NIO
Alpaca Tradeable

Reversion's Analysis

Last 6 Months: 2026-03-25 to present • 25 trades in period

-32.14%
Last 6 Months Return
$5,949.37
Current Value
52%
Win Rate
$8,767.40
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 0: RANGING
Signals generated 2026-09-25 00:07:56

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
47.7 neutral
20d Trend
-0.8%
5d Trend
-0.8%
EMA20 Dist
-0.1%
ATR%
4.5%
Range Pos
9%
Bounce Ratio
2.0×
Green/Red 10d
5/5

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

12
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
7.5/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.6/10
Raw Quality 12.1/100
× Confidence 0.98 = 11.9

30-Day Momentum

0
-26.9%
30d Return
0%
Win Rate
3
Trades
0.6×
Profit Factor
Quality: 0.0 Conf: 0.61×
Declining (-12 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
9,906
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-03-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
127 days
Data Gaps
None (5 market holidays)

Market Closed (5 days)

2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)

Period Start Capital
$8,767.40
Current Value
$5,949.37
Period P&L
$-2,818.03
Max Drawdown
-27.9%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.17

Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)

Trades in Period
25
Winners / Losers
13 / 12
Best Trade
+7.76%
Worst Trade
-15.65%
Avg Trade Return
-1.16%
Avg Hold Time
5.7d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$417,543.26
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-2,818.03
Net P&L (after fees)
$-2,818.03
Gross Return
-32.14%
Net Return (after fees)
-32.14%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 NIO Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 127 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 6 Months - 25 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Reversion had $8,767.40 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Mar 24, 2026 9:30am ET $5.75 1,505 $8,649.24 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 27, 2026 2:15pm ET $5.34 1,505 $8,039.86 $8,040.64 $-609.37
(-7.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
3.2d held
2 🟢 BUY Apr 2, 2026 9:30am ET $6.07 1,323 $8,037.22 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 6, 2026 9:35am ET $6.42 1,323 $8,491.41 $8,494.83 +$454.19
(+5.7%) 		🎯 +5% Target
4d held
3 🟢 BUY Apr 7, 2026 9:35am ET $6.13 1,385 $8,490.05 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 8, 2026 11:05am ET $6.45 1,385 $8,926.33 $8,931.11 +$436.28
(+5.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held
4 🟢 BUY Apr 14, 2026 2:20pm ET $6.52 1,369 $8,925.88 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 16, 2026 3:55pm ET $6.86 1,369 $9,386.55 $9,391.78 +$460.67
(+5.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
2.1d held
5 🟢 BUY Apr 20, 2026 9:30am ET $6.74 1,393 $9,390.21 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 23, 2026 10:15am ET $6.24 1,393 $8,699.28 $8,700.85 $-690.93
(-7.4%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
3d held
6 🟢 BUY Apr 28, 2026 9:30am ET $6.15 1,414 $8,696.10 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 29, 2026 9:30am ET $6.60 1,414 $9,332.40 $9,337.15 +$636.30
(+7.3%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1d held
7 🟢 BUY Apr 30, 2026 9:30am ET $6.26 1,491 $9,333.21 — — —
🔴 SELL May 1, 2026 11:35am ET $5.81 1,491 $8,662.71 $8,666.65 $-670.50
(-7.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held
8 🟢 BUY May 6, 2026 9:30am ET $5.71 1,517 $8,665.86 — — —
🔴 SELL May 7, 2026 10:00am ET $6.01 1,517 $9,117.17 $9,117.96 +$451.31
(+5.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1d held
9 🟢 BUY May 8, 2026 11:55am ET $5.86 1,554 $9,114.21 — — —
🔴 SELL May 13, 2026 9:35am ET $6.32 1,554 $9,821.12 $9,824.88 +$706.92
(+7.8%) 		🎯 +5% Target
4.9d held
10 🟢 BUY May 14, 2026 9:35am ET $6.36 1,546 $9,824.83 — — —
🔴 SELL May 18, 2026 9:40am ET $5.89 1,546 $9,098.21 $9,098.26 $-726.62
(-7.4%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
4d held
11 🟢 BUY May 19, 2026 9:40am ET $5.74 1,585 $9,098.06 — — —
🔴 SELL May 22, 2026 9:30am ET $5.20 1,585 $8,242.00 $8,242.20 $-856.06
(-9.4%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
3d held
12 🟢 BUY May 26, 2026 12:00pm ET $5.24 1,571 $8,239.89 — — —
🔴 SELL May 27, 2026 10:30am ET $5.52 1,571 $8,671.92 $8,674.23 +$432.03
(+5.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
22.5h held
13 🟢 BUY May 28, 2026 1:00pm ET $5.55 1,562 $8,669.10 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 1, 2026 9:35am ET $5.89 1,562 $9,202.21 $9,207.34 +$533.11
(+6.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
3.9d held
14 🟢 BUY Jun 2, 2026 1:00pm ET $6.05 1,523 $9,206.54 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 5, 2026 9:30am ET $5.55 1,523 $8,452.80 $8,453.61 $-753.73
(-8.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held
15 🟢 BUY Jun 8, 2026 12:35pm ET $5.46 1,548 $8,452.08 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 16, 2026 9:30am ET $5.03 1,548 $7,786.44 $7,787.97 $-665.64
(-7.9%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
7.9d held
16 🟢 BUY Jun 17, 2026 9:30am ET $4.98 1,563 $7,783.74 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 29, 2026 9:30am ET $4.93 1,563 $7,705.59 $7,709.82 $-78.15
(-1.0%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
12d held
17 🟢 BUY Jun 17, 2026 9:30am ET $4.98 1,563 $7,783.74 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 6, 2026 9:30am ET $4.99 1,563 $7,791.56 $7,717.64 +$7.82
(+0.1%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
19d held
18 🟢 BUY Jul 7, 2026 3:00pm ET $4.90 1,575 $7,714.67 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 14, 2026 9:30am ET $5.14 1,575 $8,103.37 $8,106.35 +$388.71
(+5.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
6.8d held
19 🟢 BUY Jul 15, 2026 12:00pm ET $5.06 1,602 $8,106.12 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 22, 2026 9:40am ET $4.70 1,602 $7,526.52 $7,526.75 $-579.60
(-7.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
6.9d held
20 🟢 BUY Jul 23, 2026 9:55am ET $4.64 1,620 $7,524.90 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 29, 2026 9:35am ET $4.92 1,620 $7,970.40 $7,972.25 +$445.50
(+5.9%) 		🎯 +5% Target
6d held
21 🟢 BUY Jul 30, 2026 9:35am ET $4.68 1,701 $7,969.18 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 10, 2026 9:30am ET $4.78 1,701 $8,129.59 $8,132.65 +$160.40
(+2.0%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
11d held
22 🟢 BUY Aug 11, 2026 9:30am ET $4.59 1,769 $8,128.55 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 21, 2026 9:30am ET $4.60 1,769 $8,139.17 $8,143.26 +$10.61
(+0.1%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
23 🟢 BUY Aug 24, 2026 9:30am ET $4.51 1,807 $8,140.54 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 1, 2026 9:30am ET $4.05 1,807 $7,309.32 $7,312.04 $-831.22
(-10.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
8d held
24 🟢 BUY Aug 24, 2026 9:30am ET $4.51 1,807 $8,140.54 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 3, 2026 11:40am ET $3.80 1,807 $6,866.42 $6,037.92 $-1,274.12
(-15.7%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
10.1d held
25 🟢 BUY Sep 8, 2026 9:30am ET $3.75 1,610 $6,037.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 18, 2026 9:30am ET $3.69 1,610 $5,948.95 $5,949.37 $-88.55
(-1.5%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $5,949.37
Net Profit/Loss: $-4,050.63
Total Return: -40.51%
Back to Reversion