Compendium › Reversion › NVDA
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
NVDA
Alpaca Tradeable

Reversion's Analysis

Last 6 Months: 2026-03-24 to present • 23 trades in period

+19.66%
Last 6 Months Return
$10,434.15
Current Value
65%
Win Rate
$8,719.93
Period Start
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PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-24 22:44:33

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
33.4 neutral
20d Trend
-9.7%
5d Trend
-7.1%
EMA20 Dist
-5.9%
ATR%
3.2%
Range Pos
3%
Bounce Ratio
0.7×
Green/Red 10d
4/6

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

19
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.8/35
Total Return
6.0/25
Win Rate
7.7/15
Profit Factor
0.2/15
Consistency
4.5/10
Raw Quality 19.3/100
× Confidence 0.98 = 19.0

30-Day Momentum

22
+4.6%
30d Return
75%
Win Rate
4
Trades
1.2×
Profit Factor
Quality: 33.5 Conf: 0.66×
Steady (+3 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
9,984
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-03-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
128 days
Data Gaps
None (5 market holidays)

Market Closed (5 days)

2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)

Period Start Capital
$8,719.93
Current Value
$10,434.15
Period P&L
$1,714.22
Max Drawdown
-18.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.15

Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)

Trades in Period
23
Winners / Losers
15 / 8
Best Trade
+7.28%
Worst Trade
-8.05%
Avg Trade Return
+0.80%
Avg Hold Time
7d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$452,557.20
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$1,714.22
Net P&L (after fees)
$1,714.22
Gross Return
+19.66%
Net Return (after fees)
+19.66%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 NVDA Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 128 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 6 Months - 23 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Reversion had $8,719.93 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Mar 17, 2026 3:55pm ET $181.93 49 $8,914.81 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 27, 2026 9:55am ET $168.56 49 $8,259.44 $8,373.26 $-655.38
(-7.4%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
9.8d held
2 🟢 BUY Mar 30, 2026 10:00am ET $166.54 50 $8,327.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 1, 2026 9:30am ET $175.74 50 $8,787.00 $8,833.26 +$460.00
(+5.5%) 		🎯 +5% Target
2d held
3 🟢 BUY Apr 2, 2026 9:30am ET $172.08 51 $8,776.08 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET $184.60 51 $9,414.60 $9,471.78 +$638.52
(+7.3%) 		🎯 +5% Target
6d held
4 🟢 BUY Apr 9, 2026 9:35am ET $180.97 52 $9,410.44 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 14, 2026 9:30am ET $191.50 52 $9,958.00 $10,019.34 +$547.56
(+5.8%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5d held
5 🟢 BUY Apr 15, 2026 12:30pm ET $199.10 50 $9,954.75 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 24, 2026 11:10am ET $209.44 50 $10,472.00 $10,536.59 +$517.25
(+5.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
8.9d held
6 🟢 BUY Apr 28, 2026 9:30am ET $209.21 50 $10,460.50 — — —
🔴 SELL May 8, 2026 9:30am ET $213.07 50 $10,653.25 $10,729.34 +$192.75
(+1.8%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
7 🟢 BUY May 11, 2026 9:30am ET $214.04 50 $10,702.25 — — —
🔴 SELL May 13, 2026 9:30am ET $224.76 50 $11,238.25 $11,265.34 +$536.00
(+5.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
2d held
8 🟢 BUY May 14, 2026 1:15pm ET $233.80 48 $11,222.40 — — —
🔴 SELL May 22, 2026 10:05am ET $216.26 48 $10,380.48 $10,423.42 $-841.92
(-7.5%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
7.9d held
9 🟢 BUY May 27, 2026 9:45am ET $210.88 49 $10,332.88 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 1, 2026 10:25am ET $221.95 49 $10,875.55 $10,966.09 +$542.67
(+5.3%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5d held
10 🟢 BUY Jun 2, 2026 1:15pm ET $224.49 48 $10,775.52 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 5, 2026 11:25am ET $208.71 48 $10,018.08 $10,208.65 $-757.44
(-7.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held
11 🟢 BUY Jun 8, 2026 3:10pm ET $208.28 49 $10,205.72 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 18, 2026 3:10pm ET $210.18 49 $10,298.82 $10,301.75 +$93.10
(+0.9%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
12 🟢 BUY Jun 22, 2026 3:30pm ET $208.08 49 $10,195.92 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 25, 2026 9:55am ET $192.38 49 $9,426.86 $9,532.69 $-769.06
(-7.5%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
2.8d held
13 🟢 BUY Jun 22, 2026 3:30pm ET $208.08 49 $10,195.92 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 6, 2026 9:30am ET $194.48 49 $9,529.52 $8,866.29 $-666.40
(-6.5%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
13.8d held
14 🟢 BUY Jul 7, 2026 9:30am ET $192.15 46 $8,838.90 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 8, 2026 1:25pm ET $202.69 46 $9,323.76 $9,351.15 +$484.86
(+5.5%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1.2d held
15 🟢 BUY Jul 10, 2026 9:30am ET $202.04 46 $9,293.84 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 14, 2026 2:30pm ET $212.29 46 $9,765.11 $9,822.42 +$471.27
(+5.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
4.2d held
16 🟢 BUY Jul 16, 2026 9:30am ET $209.40 46 $9,632.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 27, 2026 9:30am ET $205.73 46 $9,463.58 $9,653.60 $-168.82
(-1.8%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
11d held
17 🟢 BUY Jul 10, 2026 9:30am ET $202.04 46 $9,293.84 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 30, 2026 9:35am ET $192.21 46 $8,841.89 $9,201.65 $-451.95
(-4.9%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
20d held
18 🟢 BUY Aug 3, 2026 3:40pm ET $207.19 44 $9,116.36 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 5, 2026 9:35am ET $218.27 44 $9,603.88 $9,689.17 +$487.52
(+5.3%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1.7d held
19 🟢 BUY Aug 6, 2026 3:50pm ET $219.02 44 $9,636.88 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 17, 2026 9:30am ET $225.46 44 $9,920.24 $9,972.53 +$283.36
(+2.9%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
10.7d held
20 🟢 BUY Aug 18, 2026 9:30am ET $220.55 45 $9,924.97 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 28, 2026 9:30am ET $227.37 45 $10,231.43 $10,278.98 +$306.45
(+3.1%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
21 🟢 BUY Aug 31, 2026 2:25pm ET $218.97 46 $10,072.62 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 3, 2026 1:45pm ET $229.93 46 $10,576.78 $10,783.14 +$504.16
(+5.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
3d held
22 🟢 BUY Sep 4, 2026 3:30pm ET $229.69 46 $10,565.59 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 14, 2026 9:30am ET $211.20 46 $9,715.20 $9,932.75 $-850.39
(-8.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
9.8d held
23 🟢 BUY Sep 15, 2026 1:05pm ET $211.44 46 $9,726.24 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 18, 2026 3:55pm ET $222.34 46 $10,227.64 $10,434.15 +$501.40
(+5.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
3.1d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $10,434.15
Net Profit/Loss: +$434.15
Total Return: +4.34%
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