ORCL Reversion's Analysis
Last 6 Months: 2026-03-25 to present • 31 trades in period
-51.79%
Last 6 Months Return
$4,404.56
Current Value
45%
Win Rate
$9,135.98
Period Start
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
15.8 oversold
20d Trend
-34.3%
5d Trend
-19.1%
EMA20 Dist
-19.9%
ATR%
6.9%
Range Pos
0%
Bounce Ratio
0.2×
Green/Red 10d
1/9
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
11
Lifetime
Confidence: 100%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
5.8/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
5.0/10
Raw Quality
10.8/100
× Confidence 1.00
= 10.8
30-Day Momentum
46
+16.0%
30d Return
80%
Win Rate
5
Trades
2.0×
Profit Factor
Quality: 65.1
Conf: 0.70×
Accelerating (+35 vs lifetime)
Momentum meets PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (100%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
9,906
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-03-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
127 days
Data Gaps
None (5 market holidays)
Market Closed (5 days)
2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)
Period Start Capital
$9,135.98
Current Value
$4,404.56
Period P&L
$-4,731.42
Max Drawdown
-21.1%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.31
Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)
Trades in Period
31
Winners / Losers
14 /
17
Best Trade
+6.51%
Worst Trade
-15.76%
Avg Trade Return
-2.10%
Avg Hold Time
4.3d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$430,073.51
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-4,731.42
Net P&L (after fees)
$-4,731.42
Gross Return
-51.79%
Net Return (after fees)
-51.79%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 ORCL Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 127 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 6 Months - 31 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Reversion had $9,135.98 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $152.82 | 61 | $9,322.06 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $140.98 | 61 | $8,599.78 | $8,621.14 |
$-722.28 (-7.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 30, 2026 9:50am ET | $138.64 | 62 | $8,595.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 31, 2026 1:20pm ET | $145.90 | 62 | $9,045.80 | $9,071.26 |
+$450.12 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 2:00pm ET | $145.65 | 62 | $9,030.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 10, 2026 9:50am ET | $135.20 | 62 | $8,382.40 | $8,423.36 |
$-647.90 (-7.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
8.8d held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 14, 2026 2:10pm ET | $161.60 | 52 | $8,403.21 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 15, 2026 9:45am ET | $171.10 | 52 | $8,897.20 | $8,917.36 |
+$494.00 (+5.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
19.6h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 17, 2026 11:45am ET | $177.39 | 50 | $8,869.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 22, 2026 10:10am ET | $187.07 | 50 | $9,353.75 | $9,401.61 |
+$484.25 (+5.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.9d held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 23, 2026 1:20pm ET | $175.93 | 53 | $9,324.29 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 28, 2026 9:30am ET | $162.43 | 53 | $8,608.79 | $8,686.11 |
$-715.50 (-7.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.8d held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 29, 2026 9:30am ET | $163.56 | 53 | $8,668.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 1, 2026 11:25am ET | $171.91 | 53 | $9,111.23 | $9,128.66 |
+$442.55 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.1d held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | May 4, 2026 3:50pm ET | $180.69 | 50 | $9,034.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 6, 2026 11:50am ET | $190.02 | 50 | $9,501.00 | $9,595.16 |
+$466.50 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.8d held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | May 7, 2026 12:00pm ET | $194.81 | 49 | $9,545.69 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 12, 2026 12:55pm ET | $181.04 | 49 | $8,871.20 | $8,920.68 |
$-674.48 (-7.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5d held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | May 14, 2026 9:30am ET | $188.46 | 47 | $8,857.62 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 14, 2026 11:10am ET | $198.31 | 47 | $9,320.66 | $9,383.72 |
+$463.04 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.7h held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | May 15, 2026 11:45am ET | $192.18 | 48 | $9,224.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $193.00 | 48 | $9,264.00 | $9,423.08 |
+$39.36 (+0.4%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
10.9d held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | May 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $191.00 | 49 | $9,359.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 28, 2026 11:00am ET | $202.80 | 49 | $9,937.20 | $10,001.28 |
+$578.20 (+6.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 1, 2026 3:50pm ET | $247.50 | 40 | $9,900.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 3, 2026 9:45am ET | $229.46 | 40 | $9,178.40 | $9,279.68 |
$-721.60 (-7.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.7d held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 4, 2026 12:25pm ET | $232.75 | 39 | $9,077.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 5, 2026 12:15pm ET | $216.21 | 39 | $8,432.19 | $8,634.52 |
$-645.16 (-7.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.8h held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 8, 2026 1:05pm ET | $212.02 | 40 | $8,481.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 11, 2026 9:30am ET | $178.60 | 40 | $7,144.00 | $7,297.52 |
$-1,337.00 (-15.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 16, 2026 9:30am ET | $188.88 | 38 | $7,177.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 22, 2026 12:25pm ET | $175.31 | 38 | $6,661.77 | $6,781.85 |
$-515.67 (-7.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6.1d held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 23, 2026 1:50pm ET | $167.15 | 40 | $6,686.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 25, 2026 9:40am ET | $154.14 | 40 | $6,165.60 | $6,261.25 |
$-520.60 (-7.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.8d held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 26, 2026 9:50am ET | $150.71 | 41 | $6,179.11 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 6, 2026 9:50am ET | $143.11 | 41 | $5,867.51 | $5,949.65 |
$-311.60 (-5.0%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 7, 2026 10:10am ET | $141.28 | 42 | $5,933.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 14, 2026 9:30am ET | $130.69 | 42 | $5,488.98 | $5,504.87 |
$-444.78 (-7.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
7d held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 15, 2026 2:55pm ET | $132.08 | 41 | $5,415.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 17, 2026 9:40am ET | $122.46 | 41 | $5,020.86 | $5,110.45 |
$-394.42 (-7.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.8d held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 20, 2026 9:40am ET | $124.48 | 41 | $5,103.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 24, 2026 3:10pm ET | $115.51 | 41 | $4,736.11 | $4,742.88 |
$-367.57 (-7.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.2d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 28, 2026 9:30am ET | $116.26 | 40 | $4,650.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 28, 2026 3:00pm ET | $122.27 | 40 | $4,890.74 | $4,983.22 |
+$240.34 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5.5h held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 7, 2026 10:10am ET | $141.28 | 42 | $5,933.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 30, 2026 9:35am ET | $123.26 | 42 | $5,176.92 | $4,226.38 |
$-756.84 (-12.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23d held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 4, 2026 3:30pm ET | $146.13 | 28 | $4,091.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 12, 2026 2:25pm ET | $153.44 | 28 | $4,296.32 | $4,431.06 |
+$204.68 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
8d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 14, 2026 9:35am ET | $154.15 | 28 | $4,316.06 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 18, 2026 10:45am ET | $142.80 | 28 | $3,998.54 | $4,113.54 |
$-317.52 (-7.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4d held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $142.88 | 28 | $4,000.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 26, 2026 9:35am ET | $150.95 | 28 | $4,226.60 | $4,339.36 |
+$225.82 (+5.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 31, 2026 9:30am ET | $149.35 | 29 | $4,331.15 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 4, 2026 9:30am ET | $159.08 | 29 | $4,613.32 | $4,621.53 |
+$282.17 (+6.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4d held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 8, 2026 2:40pm ET | $161.64 | 28 | $4,525.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 11, 2026 3:50pm ET | $150.32 | 28 | $4,208.85 | $4,304.46 |
$-317.07 (-7.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 15, 2026 9:40am ET | $142.49 | 30 | $4,274.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 17, 2026 10:15am ET | $149.93 | 30 | $4,498.05 | $4,527.66 |
+$223.20 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 18, 2026 12:25pm ET | $144.95 | 31 | $4,493.45 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 22, 2026 9:35am ET | $152.86 | 31 | $4,738.66 | $4,772.87 |
+$245.21 (+5.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.9d held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 23, 2026 9:35am ET | $146.85 | 32 | $4,699.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 24, 2026 9:50am ET | $135.34 | 32 | $4,330.89 | $4,404.56 |
$-368.31 (-7.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$4,404.56
Net Profit/Loss:
$-5,595.44
Total Return:
-55.95%