AMZN Reversion's Analysis
2024-01-02 00:00:00+00 to 2026-09-24 19:55:00+00 • 57 trades executed
-4.12%
2 Years Return
$10,291.28
Current Value
60%
Win Rate
$10,733.91
Period Start
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
22.1 oversold
20d Trend
-18.5%
5d Trend
-17.4%
EMA20 Dist
-14.4%
ATR%
4.1%
Range Pos
2%
Bounce Ratio
0.2×
Green/Red 10d
3/7
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
21
Lifetime
Confidence: 85%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
1.7/35
Total Return
7.0/25
Win Rate
9.1/15
Profit Factor
0.5/15
Consistency
6.3/10
Raw Quality
24.6/100
× Confidence 0.85
= 21.0
30-Day Momentum
Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (85%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles Used
75,704
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Date Range
2024-09-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
535 days
Data Gaps
None (21 market holidays)
Market Closed (21 days)
2024-11-28 — Thanksgiving, 2024-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2025-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2025-01-09 — National Day of Mourning (Carter), 2025-01-20 — MLK Jr. Day, 2025-02-17 — Presidents' Day, 2025-04-18 — Good Friday, 2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed) ... and 1 more
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary
Starting Capital
$10,733.91
Current Value
$10,291.28
Total P&L
$-442.63
Max Drawdown
-12.5%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.01
Trade Statistics
Total Trades
50
Winners / Losers
30 /
20
Best Trade
+6.00%
Worst Trade
-9.70%
Avg Trade Return
-0.02%
Avg Hold Time
4d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$434,873.31
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-442.63
Net P&L (after fees)
$-442.63
Gross Return
-4.12%
Net Return (after fees)
-4.12%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 AMZN Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 535 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Complete Trade History
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Reversion had $10,733.91 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 7, 2024 9:40am ET | $181.19 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 8, 2024 9:40am ET | $182.13 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,789.37 |
+$55.46 (+0.5%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 31, 2024 9:50am ET | $188.25 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 1, 2024 9:30am ET | $199.54 | 0 | $0.00 | $11,432.90 |
+$643.53 (+6.0%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
0m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 15, 2024 9:30am ET | $205.83 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 15, 2024 1:05pm ET | $201.50 | 0 | $0.00 | $11,194.75 |
$-238.15 (-2.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 18, 2024 3:35pm ET | $221.82 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 19, 2024 9:30am ET | $224.18 | 0 | $0.00 | $11,313.00 |
+$118.25 (+1.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 27, 2025 9:30am ET | $227.20 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 27, 2025 9:55am ET | $229.63 | 0 | $0.00 | $11,432.32 |
+$119.32 (+1.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2025 9:35am ET | $236.42 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 6, 2025 9:35am ET | $237.39 | 0 | $0.00 | $11,478.88 |
+$46.56 (+0.4%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 7, 2025 10:00am ET | $230.04 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 10, 2025 10:00am ET | $231.74 | 0 | $0.00 | $11,561.99 |
+$83.11 (+0.7%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 25, 2025 10:25am ET | $207.12 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 25, 2025 12:55pm ET | $209.41 | 0 | $0.00 | $11,687.94 |
+$125.95 (+1.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 4, 2025 9:30am ET | $200.41 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 4, 2025 12:25pm ET | $203.07 | 0 | $0.00 | $11,841.88 |
+$153.94 (+1.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 6, 2025 9:30am ET | $203.12 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 6, 2025 10:20am ET | $205.19 | 0 | $0.00 | $11,961.94 |
+$120.06 (+1.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 10, 2025 10:05am ET | $193.63 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 11, 2025 9:30am ET | $195.65 | 0 | $0.00 | $12,085.01 |
+$123.07 (+1.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 18, 2025 9:30am ET | $191.96 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 19, 2025 9:30am ET | $192.37 | 0 | $0.00 | $12,110.43 |
+$25.42 (+0.2%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 28, 2025 9:30am ET | $197.79 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 28, 2025 11:55am ET | $193.53 | 0 | $0.00 | $11,850.27 |
$-260.16 (-2.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 31, 2025 9:30am ET | $185.81 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 31, 2025 11:45am ET | $187.87 | 0 | $0.00 | $11,980.37 |
+$130.10 (+1.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 3, 2025 9:30am ET | $182.97 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 3, 2025 10:30am ET | $178.87 | 0 | $0.00 | $11,713.87 |
$-266.50 (-2.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 4, 2025 9:30am ET | $170.28 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 4, 2025 9:45am ET | $173.08 | 0 | $0.00 | $11,903.93 |
+$190.06 (+1.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 7, 2025 9:30am ET | $165.50 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2025 9:45am ET | $168.14 | 0 | $0.00 | $12,091.01 |
+$187.08 (+1.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 10, 2025 11:55am ET | $179.50 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 10, 2025 1:50pm ET | $181.63 | 0 | $0.00 | $12,234.05 |
+$143.04 (+1.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 21, 2025 9:30am ET | $169.02 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 21, 2025 1:30pm ET | $165.62 | 0 | $0.00 | $11,988.89 |
$-245.16 (-2.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 30, 2025 9:30am ET | $181.42 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 30, 2025 3:50pm ET | $183.95 | 0 | $0.00 | $12,156.05 |
+$167.16 (+1.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | May 15, 2025 9:35am ET | $204.89 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 16, 2025 9:35am ET | $205.54 | 0 | $0.00 | $12,194.42 |
+$38.37 (+0.3%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 1, 2025 9:30am ET | $218.10 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 1, 2025 1:55pm ET | $213.63 | 0 | $0.00 | $11,948.84 |
$-245.58 (-2.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 2, 2025 9:30am ET | $223.92 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 3, 2025 9:30am ET | $226.65 | 0 | $0.00 | $12,093.58 |
+$144.74 (+1.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 10, 2025 9:40am ET | $231.88 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 10, 2025 10:15am ET | $234.26 | 0 | $0.00 | $12,217.34 |
+$123.76 (+1.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 23, 2025 9:50am ET | $221.89 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 24, 2025 9:50am ET | $221.58 | 0 | $0.00 | $12,200.29 |
$-17.05 (-0.1%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 10, 2025 11:20am ET | $219.81 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 13, 2025 11:20am ET | $220.20 | 0 | $0.00 | $12,222.01 |
+$21.72 (+0.2%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 14, 2025 9:30am ET | $214.29 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 14, 2025 10:30am ET | $216.74 | 0 | $0.00 | $12,361.66 |
+$139.65 (+1.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 18, 2025 9:55am ET | $225.36 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 19, 2025 9:35am ET | $220.49 | 0 | $0.00 | $12,098.68 |
$-262.98 (-2.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 20, 2026 9:35am ET | $232.63 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 21, 2026 9:35am ET | $230.14 | 0 | $0.00 | $11,969.20 |
$-129.48 (-1.1%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $224.82 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $203.01 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,813.53 |
$-1,155.67 (-9.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2026 9:35am ET | $202.34 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 6, 2026 10:15am ET | $204.39 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,922.18 |
+$108.65 (+1.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $215.05 | 50 | $10,752.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 16, 2026 10:30am ET | $209.61 | 50 | $10,480.50 | $10,649.93 |
$-272.25 (-2.5%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 18, 2026 12:30pm ET | $211.36 | 50 | $10,568.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 30, 2026 9:30am ET | $201.21 | 50 | $10,060.75 | $10,142.44 |
$-507.49 (-4.8%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
11.9d held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 2:00pm ET | $211.81 | 47 | $9,955.07 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $223.99 | 47 | $10,527.53 | $10,714.90 |
+$572.46 (+5.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
6.8d held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 13, 2026 9:40am ET | $237.26 | 45 | $10,676.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 14, 2026 12:20pm ET | $249.35 | 45 | $11,220.75 | $11,258.89 |
+$543.99 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 16, 2026 9:30am ET | $247.33 | 45 | $11,129.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $259.88 | 45 | $11,694.60 | $11,823.64 |
+$564.75 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
8d held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 27, 2026 9:45am ET | $262.09 | 45 | $11,794.05 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 4, 2026 10:45am ET | $275.25 | 45 | $12,386.25 | $12,415.84 |
+$592.20 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
7d held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | May 5, 2026 12:30pm ET | $273.87 | 45 | $12,324.15 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 15, 2026 12:30pm ET | $262.69 | 45 | $11,821.05 | $11,912.74 |
$-503.10 (-4.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | May 18, 2026 2:05pm ET | $264.24 | 45 | $11,890.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 28, 2026 2:05pm ET | $272.42 | 45 | $12,258.90 | $12,280.84 |
+$368.10 (+3.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 1, 2026 9:30am ET | $266.29 | 46 | $12,249.34 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 5, 2026 3:00pm ET | $247.64 | 46 | $11,391.44 | $11,422.94 |
$-857.90 (-7.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.2d held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 9, 2026 12:55pm ET | $240.88 | 47 | $11,321.59 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 22, 2026 9:30am ET | $240.39 | 47 | $11,298.33 | $11,399.68 |
$-23.26 (-0.2%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
12.9d held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $232.55 | 49 | $11,394.95 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 29, 2026 10:15am ET | $244.44 | 49 | $11,977.56 | $11,982.29 |
+$582.61 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
6d held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $232.55 | 49 | $11,394.95 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $243.63 | 49 | $11,937.63 | $12,524.96 |
+$542.67 (+4.8%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
13d held |
|
| 44 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $244.18 | 51 | $12,453.33 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 16, 2026 10:30am ET | $256.55 | 51 | $13,084.30 | $13,155.93 |
+$630.97 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
8d held |
|
| 45 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 17, 2026 12:05pm ET | $247.71 | 53 | $13,128.63 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 27, 2026 12:05pm ET | $231.96 | 53 | $12,293.89 | $12,321.19 |
$-834.74 (-6.4%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held |
|
| 46 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $244.18 | 51 | $12,453.33 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 30, 2026 9:35am ET | $232.93 | 51 | $11,879.43 | $11,747.29 |
$-573.90 (-4.6%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
22d held |
|
| 47 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 4, 2026 9:30am ET | $276.73 | 42 | $11,622.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 14, 2026 9:30am ET | $264.88 | 42 | $11,124.75 | $11,249.38 |
$-497.91 (-4.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held |
|
| 48 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 17, 2026 9:35am ET | $261.60 | 43 | $11,248.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 27, 2026 9:35am ET | $257.92 | 43 | $11,090.56 | $11,091.04 |
$-158.34 (-1.4%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held |
|
| 49 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 31, 2026 9:30am ET | $261.96 | 42 | $11,002.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 10, 2026 9:30am ET | $250.22 | 42 | $10,509.24 | $10,597.96 |
$-493.08 (-4.5%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held |
|
| 50 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 14, 2026 9:30am ET | $253.43 | 41 | $10,390.43 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $245.95 | 41 | $10,083.75 | $10,291.28 |
$-306.68 (-3.0%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$10,291.28
Net Profit/Loss:
+$291.28
Total Return:
+2.91%