GS Reversion's Analysis
2024-01-02 00:00:00+00 to 2026-09-24 19:55:00+00 • 58 trades executed
+15.41%
2 Years Return
$11,470.36
Current Value
60%
Win Rate
$9,938.89
Period Start
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
36.7 neutral
20d Trend
-7.0%
5d Trend
-5.4%
EMA20 Dist
-4.4%
ATR%
3.0%
Range Pos
59%
Bounce Ratio
0.5×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
26
Lifetime
Confidence: 87%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
5.7/35
Total Return
9.9/25
Win Rate
7.0/15
Profit Factor
1.4/15
Consistency
6.3/10
Raw Quality
30.2/100
× Confidence 0.87
= 26.4
30-Day Momentum
0
-6.9%
30d Return
33%
Win Rate
3
Trades
0.6×
Profit Factor
Quality: 0.0
Conf: 0.61×
Declining (-26 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (87%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles Used
45,334
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Date Range
2024-09-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
521 days
Data Gaps
None (21 market holidays)
Market Closed (21 days)
2024-11-28 — Thanksgiving, 2024-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2025-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2025-01-09 — National Day of Mourning (Carter), 2025-01-20 — MLK Jr. Day, 2025-02-17 — Presidents' Day, 2025-04-18 — Good Friday, 2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed) ... and 1 more
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary
Starting Capital
$9,938.89
Current Value
$11,470.36
Total P&L
$1,531.47
Max Drawdown
-9.1%
Sharpe Ratio
0.11
Trade Statistics
Total Trades
50
Winners / Losers
30 /
20
Best Trade
+6.43%
Worst Trade
-7.60%
Avg Trade Return
+0.36%
Avg Hold Time
3.7d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$484,801.40
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$1,531.47
Net P&L (after fees)
$1,531.47
Gross Return
+15.41%
Net Return (after fees)
+15.41%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 GS Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 521 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Complete Trade History
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Reversion had $9,938.89 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 18, 2024 3:35pm ET | $547.59 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 19, 2024 9:30am ET | $564.49 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,243.00 |
+$304.11 (+3.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
0m held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 7, 2025 10:00am ET | $571.48 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 7, 2025 11:00am ET | $577.88 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,351.80 |
+$108.80 (+1.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 10, 2025 10:00am ET | $562.88 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 13, 2025 10:00am ET | $561.81 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,332.54 |
$-19.26 (-0.2%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 21, 2025 9:35am ET | $611.05 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 21, 2025 9:45am ET | $619.58 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,469.07 |
+$136.53 (+1.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 3, 2025 9:35am ET | $624.75 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2025 10:20am ET | $631.36 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,574.83 |
+$105.76 (+1.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 20, 2025 10:05am ET | $650.46 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 20, 2025 10:45am ET | $637.44 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,366.43 |
$-208.40 (-2.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 25, 2025 9:50am ET | $614.86 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 26, 2025 9:45am ET | $621.20 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,467.95 |
+$101.52 (+1.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 4, 2025 9:30am ET | $583.16 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 4, 2025 10:15am ET | $570.47 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,252.22 |
$-215.73 (-2.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 6, 2025 9:30am ET | $576.71 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 6, 2025 10:00am ET | $582.47 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,350.28 |
+$98.06 (+1.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 10, 2025 9:30am ET | $541.55 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 10, 2025 1:00pm ET | $529.71 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,125.28 |
$-225.00 (-2.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 27, 2025 9:30am ET | $559.97 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 28, 2025 9:30am ET | $556.90 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,070.11 |
$-55.17 (-0.6%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 3, 2025 9:30am ET | $526.38 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 3, 2025 10:05am ET | $514.44 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,843.35 |
$-226.76 (-2.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 4, 2025 9:30am ET | $487.30 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 4, 2025 10:00am ET | $475.82 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,613.75 |
$-229.60 (-2.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 7, 2025 9:30am ET | $449.72 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2025 10:10am ET | $475.48 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,154.61 |
+$540.86 (+5.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
0m held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 10, 2025 9:30am ET | $497.51 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 10, 2025 11:45am ET | $487.31 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,950.61 |
$-204.00 (-2.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 30, 2025 9:30am ET | $534.65 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 30, 2025 11:00am ET | $541.00 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,064.82 |
+$114.21 (+1.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | May 6, 2025 9:30am ET | $550.88 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 6, 2025 12:10pm ET | $557.19 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,178.40 |
+$113.58 (+1.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | May 19, 2025 11:10am ET | $600.32 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 19, 2025 11:35am ET | $606.35 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,274.96 |
+$96.56 (+1.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 1, 2025 9:30am ET | $702.86 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 1, 2025 10:30am ET | $710.36 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,379.96 |
+$105.00 (+1.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 2, 2025 9:30am ET | $723.00 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 2, 2025 9:50am ET | $730.91 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,490.70 |
+$110.74 (+1.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 10, 2025 11:30am ET | $765.07 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 13, 2025 9:30am ET | $782.35 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,715.34 |
+$224.64 (+2.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
0m held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 14, 2025 9:30am ET | $757.47 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 14, 2025 10:35am ET | $767.90 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,861.23 |
+$145.89 (+1.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 14, 2025 9:30am ET | $781.30 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 14, 2025 9:55am ET | $791.22 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,990.19 |
+$128.96 (+1.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 20, 2025 11:55am ET | $786.94 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 21, 2025 9:35am ET | $770.98 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,782.71 |
$-207.48 (-2.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 21, 2025 9:40am ET | $761.30 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 21, 2025 11:55am ET | $771.05 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,919.21 |
+$136.50 (+1.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $926.06 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $928.81 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,949.46 |
+$30.25 (+0.3%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 4, 2026 10:00am ET | $910.54 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 4, 2026 10:10am ET | $922.00 | 0 | $0.00 | $11,086.98 |
+$137.52 (+1.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 10:10am ET | $882.84 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 11:20am ET | $893.27 | 0 | $0.00 | $11,212.08 |
+$125.10 (+1.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 12, 2026 11:00am ET | $934.36 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 12, 2026 11:35am ET | $915.63 | 0 | $0.00 | $11,006.05 |
$-206.03 (-2.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 13, 2026 9:30am ET | $883.36 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 13, 2026 10:05am ET | $896.10 | 0 | $0.00 | $11,158.93 |
+$152.88 (+1.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $811.00 | 13 | $10,543.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 16, 2026 10:30am ET | $802.14 | 13 | $10,427.79 | $11,043.72 |
$-115.21 (-1.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 17, 2026 2:30pm ET | $805.29 | 13 | $10,468.77 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 23, 2026 11:05am ET | $847.45 | 13 | $11,016.79 | $11,591.73 |
+$548.01 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5.9d held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 24, 2026 1:00pm ET | $834.11 | 13 | $10,843.43 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $864.76 | 13 | $11,241.88 | $11,990.18 |
+$398.45 (+3.7%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
12.9d held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 7, 2026 9:30am ET | $857.36 | 13 | $11,145.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $905.24 | 13 | $11,768.12 | $12,612.62 |
+$622.44 (+5.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 10, 2026 9:30am ET | $903.37 | 13 | $11,743.81 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $923.93 | 13 | $12,011.09 | $12,879.90 |
+$267.28 (+2.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 21, 2026 1:05pm ET | $925.93 | 13 | $12,037.09 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 1, 2026 1:05pm ET | $925.53 | 13 | $12,031.89 | $12,874.70 |
$-5.20 (-0.0%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | May 7, 2026 9:55am ET | $933.73 | 13 | $12,138.49 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 18, 2026 9:30am ET | $948.86 | 13 | $12,335.24 | $13,071.46 |
+$196.76 (+1.6%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
11d held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | May 19, 2026 9:30am ET | $936.54 | 13 | $12,175.02 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 21, 2026 9:30am ET | $986.22 | 13 | $12,820.92 | $13,717.36 |
+$645.90 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | May 22, 2026 3:05pm ET | $999.36 | 13 | $12,991.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 1, 2026 3:05pm ET | $1,048.09 | 13 | $13,625.17 | $14,350.85 |
+$633.49 (+4.9%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 2, 2026 3:35pm ET | $1,066.91 | 13 | $13,869.83 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 12, 2026 3:35pm ET | $1,063.66 | 13 | $13,827.58 | $14,308.60 |
$-42.25 (-0.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 16, 2026 2:35pm ET | $1,090.05 | 13 | $14,170.65 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 26, 2026 2:35pm ET | $1,027.10 | 13 | $13,352.30 | $13,490.25 |
$-818.35 (-5.8%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 16, 2026 2:35pm ET | $1,090.05 | 13 | $14,170.65 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $1,048.90 | 13 | $13,635.70 | $12,955.30 |
$-534.95 (-3.8%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
19.8d held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 7, 2026 10:15am ET | $1,043.68 | 12 | $12,524.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 14, 2026 9:40am ET | $1,110.82 | 12 | $13,329.84 | $13,760.98 |
+$805.68 (+6.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
7d held |
|
| 44 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 15, 2026 10:55am ET | $1,135.00 | 12 | $13,620.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 20, 2026 1:35pm ET | $1,054.91 | 12 | $12,658.86 | $12,799.84 |
$-961.14 (-7.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.1d held |
|
| 45 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 21, 2026 3:20pm ET | $1,080.60 | 11 | $11,886.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 29, 2026 9:50am ET | $998.52 | 11 | $10,983.72 | $11,896.96 |
$-902.88 (-7.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
7.8d held |
|
| 46 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 31, 2026 10:05am ET | $1,018.24 | 11 | $11,200.69 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 5, 2026 9:40am ET | $1,070.68 | 11 | $11,777.48 | $12,473.75 |
+$576.79 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5d held |
|
| 47 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 6, 2026 10:45am ET | $1,056.24 | 11 | $11,618.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $1,041.88 | 11 | $11,460.68 | $12,315.79 |
$-157.96 (-1.4%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
10.9d held |
|
| 48 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 18, 2026 9:30am ET | $1,040.00 | 11 | $11,440.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 28, 2026 9:30am ET | $1,043.10 | 11 | $11,474.12 | $12,349.91 |
+$34.12 (+0.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held |
|
| 49 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 31, 2026 9:30am ET | $1,028.36 | 12 | $12,340.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 10, 2026 9:30am ET | $1,022.04 | 12 | $12,264.43 | $12,274.02 |
$-75.89 (-0.6%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held |
|
| 50 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 11, 2026 2:45pm ET | $1,028.77 | 11 | $11,316.47 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 15, 2026 11:55am ET | $955.71 | 11 | $10,512.81 | $11,470.36 |
$-803.66 (-7.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.9d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$11,470.36
Net Profit/Loss:
+$1,470.36
Total Return:
+14.70%