ISRG Reversion's Analysis
2024-01-02 00:00:00+00 to 2026-09-24 19:55:00+00 • 52 trades executed
-32.90%
2 Years Return
$7,012.89
Current Value
48%
Win Rate
$10,450.79
Period Start
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
24.1 oversold
20d Trend
-14.4%
5d Trend
-4.7%
EMA20 Dist
-6.4%
ATR%
3.0%
Range Pos
29%
Bounce Ratio
0.0×
Green/Red 10d
1/9
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
8
Lifetime
Confidence: 87%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
4.5/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
5.2/10
Raw Quality
9.7/100
× Confidence 0.87
= 8.4
30-Day Momentum
8
+1.1%
30d Return
50%
Win Rate
4
Trades
1.1×
Profit Factor
Quality: 11.9
Conf: 0.66×
Cooling (-1 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (87%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles Used
42,993
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Date Range
2024-09-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
516 days
Data Gaps
None (21 market holidays)
Market Closed (21 days)
2024-11-28 — Thanksgiving, 2024-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2025-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2025-01-09 — National Day of Mourning (Carter), 2025-01-20 — MLK Jr. Day, 2025-02-17 — Presidents' Day, 2025-04-18 — Good Friday, 2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed) ... and 1 more
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary
Starting Capital
$10,450.79
Current Value
$7,012.89
Total P&L
$-3,437.91
Max Drawdown
-12.5%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.15
Trade Statistics
Total Trades
46
Winners / Losers
22 /
24
Best Trade
+7.99%
Worst Trade
-18.91%
Avg Trade Return
-0.71%
Avg Hold Time
4.3d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$357,937.63
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-3,437.91
Net P&L (after fees)
$-3,437.91
Gross Return
-32.90%
Net Return (after fees)
-32.90%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 ISRG Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 516 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Complete Trade History
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Reversion had $10,450.79 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 13, 2025 9:35am ET | $534.10 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 13, 2025 9:40am ET | $540.38 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,570.11 |
+$119.32 (+1.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 24, 2025 9:30am ET | $578.00 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 24, 2025 9:45am ET | $584.29 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,683.33 |
+$113.22 (+1.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 27, 2025 9:50am ET | $566.98 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 27, 2025 9:55am ET | $573.48 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,800.33 |
+$117.00 (+1.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 25, 2025 9:30am ET | $578.13 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 25, 2025 9:50am ET | $566.17 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,585.05 |
$-215.28 (-2.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 4, 2025 9:40am ET | $552.36 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 4, 2025 1:10pm ET | $558.45 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,700.67 |
+$115.62 (+1.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 6, 2025 9:35am ET | $553.48 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 6, 2025 1:35pm ET | $542.31 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,488.44 |
$-212.23 (-2.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 7, 2025 9:30am ET | $528.18 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 7, 2025 10:10am ET | $515.89 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,254.84 |
$-233.60 (-2.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 13, 2025 9:45am ET | $488.52 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 13, 2025 11:35am ET | $478.63 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,057.14 |
$-197.70 (-2.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 21, 2025 9:30am ET | $480.89 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 21, 2025 12:10pm ET | $488.27 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,204.74 |
+$147.60 (+1.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 28, 2025 10:10am ET | $494.99 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 31, 2025 9:30am ET | $479.83 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,901.44 |
$-303.30 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 3, 2025 9:30am ET | $489.44 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 3, 2025 9:35am ET | $496.00 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,032.64 |
+$131.20 (+1.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 4, 2025 9:30am ET | $469.47 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 4, 2025 10:10am ET | $458.11 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,794.08 |
$-238.56 (-2.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 7, 2025 9:30am ET | $435.57 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2025 9:50am ET | $441.63 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,927.44 |
+$133.36 (+1.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 10, 2025 9:30am ET | $497.48 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 10, 2025 11:25am ET | $487.35 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,735.06 |
$-192.38 (-2.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 21, 2025 9:30am ET | $474.11 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 21, 2025 1:05pm ET | $464.24 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,537.66 |
$-197.40 (-2.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 30, 2025 9:35am ET | $504.22 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 30, 2025 11:10am ET | $509.32 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,629.46 |
+$91.80 (+1.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 9, 2025 9:30am ET | $504.40 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 9, 2025 9:40am ET | $510.61 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,747.51 |
+$118.05 (+1.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 23, 2025 10:00am ET | $501.34 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 24, 2025 10:00am ET | $500.98 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,740.58 |
$-6.93 (-0.1%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 3, 2025 1:10pm ET | $440.39 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 4, 2025 10:25am ET | $444.84 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,838.48 |
+$97.90 (+1.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 1, 2025 10:25am ET | $435.30 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 1, 2025 2:05pm ET | $440.08 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,943.64 |
+$105.16 (+1.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 14, 2025 9:30am ET | $554.34 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 17, 2025 9:30am ET | $549.01 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,853.03 |
$-90.61 (-1.0%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 12, 2026 10:15am ET | $569.23 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 13, 2026 10:05am ET | $557.13 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,647.24 |
$-205.79 (-2.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 14, 2026 9:30am ET | $547.81 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 14, 2026 10:00am ET | $536.55 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,455.82 |
$-191.42 (-2.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 4, 2026 9:55am ET | $466.44 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 4, 2026 10:05am ET | $471.68 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,560.72 |
+$104.90 (+1.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $485.30 | 19 | $9,220.79 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 16, 2026 10:30am ET | $484.23 | 19 | $9,200.37 | $9,540.30 |
$-20.42 (-0.2%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 17, 2026 1:40pm ET | $484.70 | 19 | $9,209.39 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2026 1:40pm ET | $452.61 | 19 | $8,599.59 | $8,930.49 |
$-609.81 (-6.6%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 30, 2026 2:20pm ET | $450.56 | 19 | $8,560.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 9, 2026 2:20pm ET | $457.36 | 19 | $8,689.84 | $9,059.69 |
+$129.20 (+1.5%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 13, 2026 9:30am ET | $449.00 | 20 | $8,980.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 15, 2026 9:35am ET | $472.67 | 20 | $9,453.30 | $9,532.99 |
+$473.30 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 16, 2026 9:40am ET | $465.02 | 20 | $9,300.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 22, 2026 10:15am ET | $489.64 | 20 | $9,792.90 | $10,025.39 |
+$492.40 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
6d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 23, 2026 1:25pm ET | $478.26 | 20 | $9,565.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 4, 2026 9:30am ET | $456.98 | 20 | $9,139.60 | $9,599.79 |
$-425.60 (-4.4%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
10.8d held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | May 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $447.42 | 21 | $9,395.82 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 18, 2026 9:30am ET | $422.75 | 21 | $8,877.75 | $9,081.72 |
$-518.07 (-5.5%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
12d held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | May 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $435.96 | 20 | $8,719.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 1, 2026 9:30am ET | $420.46 | 20 | $8,409.30 | $8,771.82 |
$-309.90 (-3.6%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
12d held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $406.57 | 21 | $8,537.87 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 5, 2026 12:15pm ET | $427.69 | 21 | $8,981.49 | $9,215.45 |
+$443.63 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.1d held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 9, 2026 12:40pm ET | $423.48 | 21 | $8,893.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 22, 2026 9:30am ET | $400.80 | 21 | $8,416.70 | $8,739.07 |
$-476.38 (-5.4%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
12.9d held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 23, 2026 11:10am ET | $400.09 | 21 | $8,401.89 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 2, 2026 10:55am ET | $420.17 | 21 | $8,823.57 | $9,160.75 |
+$421.68 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
9d held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 7, 2026 11:05am ET | $433.00 | 21 | $9,093.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 14, 2026 9:30am ET | $388.79 | 21 | $8,164.59 | $8,232.34 |
$-928.41 (-10.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6.9d held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 15, 2026 1:55pm ET | $389.48 | 21 | $8,179.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $357.72 | 21 | $7,512.12 | $7,565.38 |
$-666.96 (-8.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.8d held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 20, 2026 10:00am ET | $343.18 | 22 | $7,549.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 21, 2026 9:50am ET | $361.64 | 22 | $7,956.08 | $7,971.50 |
+$406.12 (+5.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.8h held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 22, 2026 9:50am ET | $346.30 | 23 | $7,964.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 28, 2026 9:30am ET | $373.98 | 23 | $8,601.43 | $8,608.03 |
+$636.53 (+8.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
6d held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 7, 2026 11:05am ET | $433.00 | 21 | $9,093.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 30, 2026 9:35am ET | $351.13 | 21 | $7,373.63 | $6,888.66 |
$-1,719.38 (-18.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.9d held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 3, 2026 3:00pm ET | $372.82 | 18 | $6,710.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 10, 2026 3:55pm ET | $393.00 | 18 | $7,074.00 | $7,251.90 |
+$363.24 (+5.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
7d held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 12, 2026 9:50am ET | $397.27 | 18 | $7,150.95 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $379.71 | 18 | $6,834.87 | $6,935.82 |
$-316.08 (-4.4%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
12d held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 12, 2026 9:50am ET | $397.27 | 18 | $7,150.95 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $368.49 | 18 | $6,632.82 | $6,417.69 |
$-518.13 (-7.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
14d held |
|
| 44 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 27, 2026 10:05am ET | $368.05 | 17 | $6,256.82 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $359.80 | 17 | $6,116.60 | $6,277.47 |
$-140.22 (-2.2%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
12d held |
|
| 45 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 10, 2026 9:30am ET | $349.96 | 17 | $5,949.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 11, 2026 9:35am ET | $374.04 | 17 | $6,358.68 | $6,686.75 |
+$409.28 (+6.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 46 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 14, 2026 2:20pm ET | $374.09 | 17 | $6,359.53 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 18, 2026 9:45am ET | $393.27 | 17 | $6,685.67 | $7,012.89 |
+$326.14 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.8d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$7,012.89
Net Profit/Loss:
$-2,987.11
Total Return:
-29.87%