Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 00:14:29

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
49.4 neutral
20d Trend
-5.1%
5d Trend
+1.5%
EMA20 Dist
+0.1%
ATR%
2.3%
Range Pos
39%
Bounce Ratio
2.4×
Green/Red 10d
4/6

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

23
Lifetime
Confidence: 77%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
7.5/35
Total Return
8.9/25
Win Rate
5.1/15
Profit Factor
2.2/15
Consistency
6.0/10
Raw Quality 29.7/100
× Confidence 0.77 = 23.0

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (77%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles Used
42,008
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Date Range
2024-09-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
511 days
Data Gaps
None (21 market holidays)

Market Closed (21 days)

2024-11-28 — Thanksgiving, 2024-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2025-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2025-01-09 — National Day of Mourning (Carter), 2025-01-20 — MLK Jr. Day, 2025-02-17 — Presidents' Day, 2025-04-18 — Good Friday, 2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed) ... and 1 more
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary

Starting Capital
$10,220.75
Current Value
$11,076.54
Total P&L
$855.79
Max Drawdown
-2.1%
Sharpe Ratio
0.14

Trade Statistics

Total Trades
23
Winners / Losers
12 / 11
Best Trade
+5.34%
Worst Trade
-5.06%
Avg Trade Return
+0.39%
Avg Hold Time
6.8d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$318,978.09
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$855.79
Net P&L (after fees)
$855.79
Gross Return
+8.37%
Net Return (after fees)
+8.37%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 MA Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 511 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Complete Trade History

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Reversion had $10,220.75 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Oct 31, 2024 10:25am ET $502.63 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 1, 2024 10:25am ET $506.97 0 $0.00 $10,307.55 +$86.80
(+0.9%)
END_OF_DAY
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Apr 4, 2025 9:30am ET $518.79 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 4, 2025 10:45am ET $507.90 0 $0.00 $10,100.64 $-206.91
(-2.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Apr 7, 2025 9:30am ET $475.66 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 7, 2025 10:10am ET $492.10 0 $0.00 $10,445.78 +$345.14
(+3.5%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Apr 8, 2025 3:45pm ET $471.89 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 8, 2025 3:50pm ET $478.19 0 $0.00 $10,584.27 +$138.49
(+1.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
5 🟢 BUY Jun 13, 2025 9:30am ET $560.70 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 16, 2025 9:30am ET $569.17 0 $0.00 $10,736.73 +$152.46
(+1.5%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
6 🟢 BUY Jan 12, 2026 9:30am ET $556.93 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 12, 2026 10:30am ET $563.02 0 $0.00 $10,852.35 +$115.62
(+1.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
7 🟢 BUY Jan 13, 2026 9:30am ET $551.94 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 13, 2026 10:10am ET $540.20 0 $0.00 $10,629.29 $-223.06
(-2.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
8 🟢 BUY Mar 6, 2026 9:40am ET $516.60 20 $10,332.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 16, 2026 10:40am ET $504.03 20 $10,080.60 $10,377.89 $-251.40
(-2.4%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
9 🟢 BUY Mar 17, 2026 12:00pm ET $509.95 20 $10,199.01 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 27, 2026 12:00pm ET $484.17 20 $9,683.30 $9,862.18 $-515.71
(-5.1%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
10 🟢 BUY Apr 1, 2026 9:35am ET $496.21 19 $9,427.99 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 13, 2026 9:30am ET $497.70 19 $9,456.30 $9,890.49 +$28.31
(+0.3%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
12d held
11 🟢 BUY Apr 14, 2026 12:50pm ET $511.98 19 $9,727.62 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 24, 2026 12:50pm ET $503.42 19 $9,564.98 $9,727.85 $-162.64
(-1.7%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
12 🟢 BUY Apr 28, 2026 12:35pm ET $512.18 18 $9,219.24 — — —
🔴 SELL May 8, 2026 12:35pm ET $496.92 18 $8,944.56 $9,453.17 $-274.68
(-3.0%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
13 🟢 BUY May 12, 2026 1:20pm ET $504.01 18 $9,072.09 — — —
🔴 SELL May 22, 2026 1:20pm ET $499.03 18 $8,982.54 $9,363.62 $-89.55
(-1.0%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
14 🟢 BUY May 28, 2026 9:30am ET $493.05 18 $8,874.99 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 8, 2026 9:30am ET $487.95 18 $8,783.19 $9,271.82 $-91.80
(-1.0%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
11d held
15 🟢 BUY Jun 9, 2026 9:30am ET $482.92 19 $9,175.48 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 22, 2026 9:30am ET $488.58 19 $9,283.02 $9,379.36 +$107.54
(+1.2%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
13d held
16 🟢 BUY Jun 23, 2026 2:45pm ET $487.45 19 $9,261.64 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 29, 2026 10:20am ET $513.47 19 $9,756.02 $9,873.74 +$494.38
(+5.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
5.8d held
17 🟢 BUY Jun 30, 2026 1:35pm ET $510.08 19 $9,691.52 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 2, 2026 11:20am ET $535.97 19 $10,183.43 $10,365.65 +$491.91
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held
18 🟢 BUY Jul 7, 2026 9:30am ET $532.22 19 $10,112.27 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 17, 2026 9:30am ET $549.24 19 $10,435.56 $10,688.94 +$323.29
(+3.2%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
19 🟢 BUY Jul 20, 2026 9:30am ET $540.70 19 $10,273.30 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 29, 2026 11:40am ET $567.90 19 $10,790.10 $11,205.74 +$516.80
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
9.1d held
20 🟢 BUY Jul 31, 2026 9:30am ET $568.53 19 $10,802.07 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 10, 2026 9:30am ET $561.59 19 $10,670.21 $11,073.88 $-131.86
(-1.2%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
21 🟢 BUY Aug 11, 2026 11:55am ET $565.32 19 $10,741.08 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 21, 2026 11:55am ET $581.32 19 $11,045.08 $11,377.88 +$304.00
(+2.8%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
22 🟢 BUY Aug 24, 2026 12:30pm ET $595.27 19 $11,310.04 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 3, 2026 12:30pm ET $585.57 19 $11,125.74 $11,193.58 $-184.30
(-1.6%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
23 🟢 BUY Sep 4, 2026 1:40pm ET $581.32 19 $11,045.08 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 14, 2026 1:40pm ET $575.16 19 $10,928.04 $11,076.54 $-117.04
(-1.1%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $11,076.54
Net Profit/Loss: +$1,076.54
Total Return: +10.77%
Back to Reversion