Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 00:08:58

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
18.4 oversold
20d Trend
-19.1%
5d Trend
-12.6%
EMA20 Dist
-11.6%
ATR%
3.8%
Range Pos
1%
Bounce Ratio
0.0×
Green/Red 10d
5/5

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

52
Lifetime
Confidence: 95%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
21.4/35
Total Return
14.9/25
Win Rate
9.0/15
Profit Factor
3.4/15
Consistency
6.4/10
Raw Quality 55.1/100
× Confidence 0.95 = 52.2

30-Day Momentum

24
+6.0%
30d Return
75%
Win Rate
4
Trades
1.3×
Profit Factor
Quality: 36.0 Conf: 0.66×
Declining (-28 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (95%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles Used
50,322
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Date Range
2024-09-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
532 days
Data Gaps
None (21 market holidays)

Market Closed (21 days)

2024-11-28 — Thanksgiving, 2024-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2025-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2025-01-09 — National Day of Mourning (Carter), 2025-01-20 — MLK Jr. Day, 2025-02-17 — Presidents' Day, 2025-04-18 — Good Friday, 2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed) ... and 1 more
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary

Starting Capital
$10,755.92
Current Value
$16,157.79
Total P&L
$5,401.87
Max Drawdown
-10.1%
Sharpe Ratio
0.16

Trade Statistics

Total Trades
69
Winners / Losers
43 / 26
Best Trade
+19.48%
Worst Trade
-9.23%
Avg Trade Return
+0.73%
Avg Hold Time
2.6d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$766,042.39
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$5,401.87
Net P&L (after fees)
$5,401.87
Gross Return
+50.22%
Net Return (after fees)
+50.22%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 PANW Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 532 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Complete Trade History

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Reversion had $10,755.92 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Oct 23, 2024 9:35am ET $183.79 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 23, 2024 2:15pm ET $180.09 0 $0.00 $10,541.44 $-214.48
(-2.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Nov 22, 2024 9:30am ET $191.95 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 22, 2024 12:35pm ET $187.86 0 $0.00 $10,320.72 $-220.72
(-2.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Dec 9, 2024 10:25am ET $197.32 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 10, 2024 10:25am ET $197.41 0 $0.00 $10,325.53 +$4.81
(+0.1%)
END_OF_DAY
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Dec 18, 2024 9:35am ET $197.21 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 18, 2024 9:55am ET $193.25 0 $0.00 $10,119.87 $-205.66
(-2.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
5 🟢 BUY Jan 6, 2025 9:35am ET $177.64 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 6, 2025 9:45am ET $180.87 0 $0.00 $10,301.02 +$181.15
(+1.8%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
6 🟢 BUY Jan 8, 2025 9:30am ET $169.55 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 8, 2025 2:20pm ET $171.30 0 $0.00 $10,406.02 +$105.00
(+1.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
7 🟢 BUY Jan 13, 2025 9:30am ET $169.06 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 14, 2025 9:30am ET $168.37 0 $0.00 $10,364.23 $-41.79
(-0.4%)
END_OF_DAY
0m held
8 🟢 BUY Jan 29, 2025 9:35am ET $188.70 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 30, 2025 9:35am ET $188.09 0 $0.00 $10,331.29 $-32.94
(-0.3%)
END_OF_DAY
0m held
9 🟢 BUY Feb 14, 2025 9:30am ET $190.65 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 14, 2025 11:50am ET $193.00 0 $0.00 $10,458.19 +$126.90
(+1.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
10 🟢 BUY Feb 20, 2025 9:30am ET $200.26 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 20, 2025 9:55am ET $195.93 0 $0.00 $10,233.03 $-225.16
(-2.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
11 🟢 BUY Feb 25, 2025 9:35am ET $187.28 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 25, 2025 1:40pm ET $189.19 0 $0.00 $10,336.43 +$103.40
(+1.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
12 🟢 BUY Mar 10, 2025 9:30am ET $174.94 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 11, 2025 9:30am ET $174.48 0 $0.00 $10,309.29 $-27.14
(-0.3%)
END_OF_DAY
0m held
13 🟢 BUY Mar 13, 2025 9:35am ET $174.63 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 13, 2025 10:05am ET $176.59 0 $0.00 $10,424.93 +$115.64
(+1.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
14 🟢 BUY Mar 21, 2025 9:35am ET $180.08 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 21, 2025 10:00am ET $181.89 0 $0.00 $10,528.10 +$103.17
(+1.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
15 🟢 BUY Mar 27, 2025 9:30am ET $180.81 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 27, 2025 11:25am ET $176.88 0 $0.00 $10,300.16 $-227.94
(-2.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
16 🟢 BUY Mar 31, 2025 9:30am ET $167.73 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 31, 2025 2:05pm ET $169.72 0 $0.00 $10,421.55 +$121.39
(+1.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
17 🟢 BUY Apr 3, 2025 9:30am ET $167.25 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 3, 2025 10:45am ET $163.68 0 $0.00 $10,199.90 $-221.65
(-2.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
18 🟢 BUY Apr 4, 2025 9:30am ET $158.92 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 4, 2025 10:30am ET $155.52 0 $0.00 $9,982.62 $-217.28
(-2.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
19 🟢 BUY Apr 7, 2025 9:30am ET $148.15 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 7, 2025 9:40am ET $145.06 0 $0.00 $9,775.92 $-206.70
(-2.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
20 🟢 BUY Apr 11, 2025 9:30am ET $162.57 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 11, 2025 9:50am ET $164.35 0 $0.00 $9,883.02 +$107.10
(+1.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
21 🟢 BUY Apr 21, 2025 9:30am ET $164.09 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 21, 2025 10:15am ET $160.54 0 $0.00 $9,670.32 $-212.70
(-2.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
22 🟢 BUY Apr 30, 2025 9:35am ET $182.60 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 30, 2025 10:30am ET $184.53 0 $0.00 $9,770.94 +$100.62
(+1.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
23 🟢 BUY May 21, 2025 9:30am ET $180.69 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL May 21, 2025 10:30am ET $182.95 0 $0.00 $9,892.98 +$122.04
(+1.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
24 🟢 BUY Jul 1, 2025 11:10am ET $195.83 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 1, 2025 12:50pm ET $198.23 0 $0.00 $10,013.09 +$120.11
(+1.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
25 🟢 BUY Jul 10, 2025 9:50am ET $200.15 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 10, 2025 11:15am ET $196.05 0 $0.00 $9,808.09 $-205.00
(-2.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
26 🟢 BUY Jul 21, 2025 2:10pm ET $197.17 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 21, 2025 2:20pm ET $200.31 0 $0.00 $9,961.94 +$153.85
(+1.6%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
27 🟢 BUY Jul 29, 2025 12:15pm ET $197.84 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 29, 2025 12:25pm ET $200.08 0 $0.00 $10,074.19 +$112.25
(+1.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
28 🟢 BUY Jul 30, 2025 9:30am ET $178.94 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 30, 2025 10:30am ET $181.02 0 $0.00 $10,190.67 +$116.48
(+1.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
29 🟢 BUY Jul 31, 2025 9:30am ET $176.10 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 1, 2025 9:30am ET $171.32 0 $0.00 $9,918.21 $-272.46
(-2.7%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
30 🟢 BUY Aug 1, 2025 9:40am ET $169.13 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 1, 2025 10:20am ET $171.19 0 $0.00 $10,037.69 +$119.48
(+1.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
31 🟢 BUY Oct 14, 2025 9:35am ET $208.22 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 15, 2025 9:35am ET $208.33 0 $0.00 $10,042.97 +$5.28
(+0.1%)
END_OF_DAY
0m held
32 🟢 BUY Oct 29, 2025 9:30am ET $216.32 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 29, 2025 9:35am ET $219.38 0 $0.00 $10,183.73 +$140.76
(+1.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
33 🟢 BUY Nov 14, 2025 9:30am ET $199.12 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 14, 2025 9:35am ET $201.25 0 $0.00 $10,292.36 +$108.63
(+1.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
34 🟢 BUY Nov 20, 2025 10:05am ET $192.62 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 20, 2025 10:15am ET $195.01 0 $0.00 $10,419.29 +$126.93
(+1.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
35 🟢 BUY Jan 8, 2026 9:35am ET $190.53 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 9, 2026 9:35am ET $191.20 0 $0.00 $10,455.47 +$36.18
(+0.3%)
END_OF_DAY
0m held
36 🟢 BUY Jan 20, 2026 10:05am ET $183.09 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 20, 2026 10:20am ET $185.46 0 $0.00 $10,590.85 +$135.38
(+1.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
37 🟢 BUY Jan 29, 2026 9:35am ET $179.96 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 29, 2026 9:55am ET $175.30 0 $0.00 $10,320.57 $-270.28
(-2.6%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
38 🟢 BUY Feb 3, 2026 9:40am ET $170.79 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 3, 2026 10:15am ET $167.27 0 $0.00 $10,109.67 $-210.90
(-2.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
39 🟢 BUY Feb 4, 2026 9:50am ET $160.99 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 4, 2026 10:10am ET $164.20 0 $0.00 $10,308.38 +$198.71
(+2.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
40 🟢 BUY Feb 5, 2026 9:55am ET $162.26 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 5, 2026 2:30pm ET $158.46 0 $0.00 $10,068.98 $-239.40
(-2.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
41 🟢 BUY Mar 6, 2026 9:45am ET $161.64 62 $10,021.68 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 13, 2026 9:45am ET $170.04 62 $10,542.79 $10,590.09 +$521.11
(+5.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
7d held
42 🟢 BUY Mar 17, 2026 12:05pm ET $169.28 62 $10,495.36 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 24, 2026 10:05am ET $157.26 62 $9,750.12 $9,844.85 $-745.24
(-7.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
6.9d held
43 🟢 BUY Mar 25, 2026 11:15am ET $156.70 62 $9,715.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 27, 2026 9:45am ET $145.43 62 $9,016.66 $9,146.11 $-698.74
(-7.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held
44 🟢 BUY Apr 1, 2026 9:50am ET $158.17 57 $9,015.69 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 7, 2026 3:15pm ET $167.74 57 $9,561.18 $9,691.60 +$545.49
(+6.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
6.2d held
45 🟢 BUY Apr 9, 2026 9:35am ET $169.73 57 $9,674.61 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 10, 2026 9:45am ET $157.54 57 $8,979.50 $8,996.49 $-695.11
(-7.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held
46 🟢 BUY Apr 14, 2026 1:25pm ET $160.71 55 $8,839.15 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 17, 2026 9:30am ET $170.40 55 $9,372.00 $9,529.34 +$532.85
(+6.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.8d held
47 🟢 BUY Apr 20, 2026 9:30am ET $166.61 57 $9,496.77 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 21, 2026 9:55am ET $175.35 57 $9,995.23 $10,027.80 +$498.46
(+5.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
1d held
48 🟢 BUY Apr 23, 2026 9:30am ET $173.73 57 $9,902.61 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 27, 2026 10:25am ET $182.50 57 $10,402.50 $10,527.69 +$499.89
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
4d held
49 🟢 BUY Apr 28, 2026 3:45pm ET $182.13 57 $10,381.41 — — —
🔴 SELL May 7, 2026 9:35am ET $195.71 57 $11,155.47 $11,301.75 +$774.06
(+7.5%)
🎯 +5% Target
8.7d held
50 🟢 BUY May 8, 2026 2:55pm ET $204.14 55 $11,227.57 — — —
🔴 SELL May 12, 2026 9:30am ET $214.37 55 $11,790.35 $11,864.53 +$562.78
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
3.8d held
51 🟢 BUY May 13, 2026 9:30am ET $213.04 55 $11,717.20 — — —
🔴 SELL May 13, 2026 2:30pm ET $223.72 55 $12,304.60 $12,451.93 +$587.40
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
5h held
52 🟢 BUY May 15, 2026 9:35am ET $234.95 52 $12,217.14 — — —
🔴 SELL May 18, 2026 10:10am ET $246.81 52 $12,834.12 $13,068.91 +$616.98
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
3d held
53 🟢 BUY May 19, 2026 11:40am ET $243.58 53 $12,909.74 — — —
🔴 SELL May 22, 2026 9:40am ET $256.08 53 $13,571.98 $13,731.15 +$662.24
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.9d held
54 🟢 BUY May 26, 2026 9:40am ET $251.99 54 $13,607.46 — — —
🔴 SELL May 29, 2026 9:40am ET $265.49 54 $14,336.46 $14,460.15 +$729.00
(+5.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
3d held
55 🟢 BUY Jun 2, 2026 9:30am ET $288.97 50 $14,448.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 8, 2026 9:30am ET $266.42 50 $13,321.25 $13,332.90 $-1,127.25
(-7.8%)
🛑 -10% Stop
6d held
56 🟢 BUY Jun 9, 2026 9:30am ET $265.09 50 $13,254.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 11, 2026 3:55pm ET $278.64 50 $13,932.00 $14,010.40 +$677.50
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.3d held
57 🟢 BUY Jun 15, 2026 2:35pm ET $282.89 49 $13,861.85 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 25, 2026 2:35pm ET $293.66 49 $14,389.34 $14,537.89 +$527.49
(+3.8%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
58 🟢 BUY Jun 26, 2026 2:50pm ET $297.32 48 $14,271.12 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 29, 2026 9:35am ET $316.31 48 $15,182.88 $15,449.65 +$911.76
(+6.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.8d held
59 🟢 BUY Jun 15, 2026 2:35pm ET $282.89 49 $13,861.85 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 6, 2026 9:30am ET $337.99 49 $16,561.51 $18,149.31 +$2,699.66
(+19.5%)
🎯 +5% Target
20.8d held
60 🟢 BUY Jul 7, 2026 9:55am ET $346.62 52 $18,024.24 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 8, 2026 10:15am ET $321.11 52 $16,697.72 $16,822.79 $-1,326.52
(-7.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held
61 🟢 BUY Jul 10, 2026 10:25am ET $332.49 50 $16,624.75 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 14, 2026 10:35am ET $349.66 50 $17,483.00 $17,681.04 +$858.25
(+5.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
4d held
62 🟢 BUY Jul 16, 2026 9:35am ET $351.71 50 $17,585.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 23, 2026 9:40am ET $324.72 50 $16,235.80 $16,331.34 $-1,349.70
(-7.7%)
🛑 -10% Stop
7d held
63 🟢 BUY Jul 10, 2026 10:25am ET $332.49 50 $16,624.75 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 30, 2026 9:35am ET $318.50 50 $15,925.00 $15,631.59 $-699.75
(-4.2%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
20d held
64 🟢 BUY Aug 5, 2026 3:25pm ET $363.82 42 $15,280.44 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 10, 2026 11:50am ET $382.39 42 $16,060.38 $16,411.53 +$779.94
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
4.9d held
65 🟢 BUY Aug 11, 2026 2:25pm ET $381.26 43 $16,394.18 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 19, 2026 10:10am ET $353.99 43 $15,221.57 $15,238.92 $-1,172.61
(-7.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
7.8d held
66 🟢 BUY Aug 20, 2026 11:20am ET $351.76 43 $15,125.68 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 27, 2026 9:40am ET $369.96 43 $15,908.28 $16,021.52 +$782.60
(+5.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
6.9d held
67 🟢 BUY Aug 28, 2026 9:40am ET $368.73 43 $15,855.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 2, 2026 9:30am ET $334.69 43 $14,391.67 $14,557.59 $-1,463.93
(-9.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5d held
68 🟢 BUY Sep 3, 2026 3:50pm ET $328.24 44 $14,442.56 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 14, 2026 9:30am ET $346.24 44 $15,234.65 $15,349.68 +$792.09
(+5.5%)
🎯 +5% Target
10.7d held
69 🟢 BUY Sep 15, 2026 9:30am ET $368.28 41 $15,099.48 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 23, 2026 11:05am ET $387.99 41 $15,907.59 $16,157.79 +$808.11
(+5.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
8.1d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $16,157.79
Net Profit/Loss: +$6,157.79
Total Return: +61.58%
Back to Reversion