ADBE Reversion's Analysis
Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 35 trades in period
-30.70%
Year to Date Return
$6,562.41
Current Value
51%
Win Rate
$9,469.85
Period Start
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
23.9 oversold
20d Trend
-14.4%
5d Trend
-9.1%
EMA20 Dist
-9.2%
ATR%
3.4%
Range Pos
3%
Bounce Ratio
0.4×
Green/Red 10d
3/7
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
10
Lifetime
Confidence: 91%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
5.9/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.8/10
Raw Quality
10.7/100
× Confidence 0.91
= 9.8
30-Day Momentum
0
-5.8%
30d Return
33%
Win Rate
3
Trades
0.8×
Profit Factor
Quality: 0.0
Conf: 0.61×
Cooling (-10 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (91%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Year to Date)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
15,872
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
189 days
Data Gaps
None (8 market holidays)
Market Closed (8 days)
2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Year to Date)
Period Start Capital
$9,469.85
Current Value
$6,562.41
Period P&L
$-2,907.44
Max Drawdown
-11.0%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.16
Trade Statistics (Year to Date)
Trades in Period
35
Winners / Losers
18 /
17
Best Trade
+6.12%
Worst Trade
-13.00%
Avg Trade Return
-0.88%
Avg Hold Time
4d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$375,523.86
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-2,907.44
Net P&L (after fees)
$-2,907.44
Gross Return
-30.70%
Net Return (after fees)
-30.70%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 ADBE Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 189 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Year to Date - 35 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Reversion had $9,469.85 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 2, 2026 9:35am ET | $342.68 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 2, 2026 10:20am ET | $335.35 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,272.07 |
$-197.78 (-2.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $327.89 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 5, 2026 9:40am ET | $331.39 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,369.93 |
+$97.86 (+1.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $331.48 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 9, 2026 1:45pm ET | $334.80 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,462.75 |
+$92.82 (+1.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 12, 2026 9:30am ET | $325.71 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 12, 2026 10:55am ET | $329.31 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,567.01 |
+$104.26 (+1.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 13, 2026 9:30am ET | $321.28 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 13, 2026 11:25am ET | $314.54 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,371.55 |
$-195.46 (-2.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 27, 2026 9:35am ET | $297.12 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 28, 2026 9:30am ET | $300.75 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,484.08 |
+$112.53 (+1.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 29, 2026 9:30am ET | $292.60 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 29, 2026 9:40am ET | $285.94 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,270.96 |
$-213.12 (-2.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 3, 2026 9:30am ET | $282.01 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2026 10:35am ET | $276.23 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,085.97 |
$-184.99 (-2.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 4, 2026 9:30am ET | $264.94 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 4, 2026 10:05am ET | $272.06 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,328.05 |
+$242.08 (+2.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 11, 2026 9:50am ET | $257.73 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 12, 2026 9:30am ET | $260.77 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,437.85 |
+$109.80 (+1.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $281.41 | 33 | $9,286.53 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 13, 2026 9:30am ET | $252.22 | 33 | $8,323.26 | $8,474.58 |
$-963.27 (-10.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
7d held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 16, 2026 9:30am ET | $248.02 | 34 | $8,432.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $237.34 | 34 | $8,069.56 | $8,111.29 |
$-363.29 (-4.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $236.38 | 34 | $8,036.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $241.50 | 34 | $8,211.00 | $8,285.37 |
+$174.08 (+2.2%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 7, 2026 9:30am ET | $243.27 | 34 | $8,271.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 10, 2026 9:55am ET | $225.51 | 34 | $7,667.51 | $7,681.70 |
$-603.67 (-7.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 13, 2026 3:10pm ET | $237.97 | 32 | $7,615.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 16, 2026 9:30am ET | $251.55 | 32 | $8,049.60 | $8,116.26 |
+$434.56 (+5.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.8d held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 17, 2026 11:15am ET | $248.58 | 32 | $7,954.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 27, 2026 11:15am ET | $241.80 | 32 | $7,737.60 | $7,899.30 |
$-216.96 (-2.7%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 29, 2026 9:30am ET | $240.97 | 32 | $7,711.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 4, 2026 10:15am ET | $253.36 | 32 | $8,107.52 | $8,295.78 |
+$396.48 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5d held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | May 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $250.76 | 33 | $8,275.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 13, 2026 12:25pm ET | $232.86 | 33 | $7,684.38 | $7,705.08 |
$-590.70 (-7.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
7.1d held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | May 15, 2026 2:45pm ET | $246.65 | 31 | $7,646.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 19, 2026 9:30am ET | $260.15 | 31 | $8,064.53 | $8,123.30 |
+$418.22 (+5.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.8d held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | May 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $250.27 | 32 | $8,008.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 1, 2026 9:30am ET | $263.09 | 32 | $8,418.88 | $8,533.38 |
+$410.08 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
12d held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $264.17 | 32 | $8,453.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 8, 2026 9:45am ET | $245.20 | 32 | $7,846.40 | $7,926.50 |
$-606.88 (-7.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 10, 2026 9:30am ET | $232.65 | 34 | $7,909.93 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 12, 2026 9:30am ET | $202.40 | 34 | $6,881.60 | $6,898.17 |
$-1,028.33 (-13.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 15, 2026 12:45pm ET | $207.74 | 33 | $6,855.26 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 18, 2026 9:35am ET | $191.50 | 33 | $6,319.50 | $6,362.41 |
$-535.76 (-7.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 22, 2026 9:35am ET | $192.96 | 32 | $6,174.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 26, 2026 3:50pm ET | $202.65 | 32 | $6,484.64 | $6,672.41 |
+$310.00 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.3d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 30, 2026 9:30am ET | $204.85 | 32 | $6,555.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $217.38 | 32 | $6,956.32 | $7,073.53 |
+$401.12 (+6.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $215.46 | 32 | $6,894.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 7, 2026 11:20am ET | $226.78 | 32 | $7,256.96 | $7,435.93 |
+$362.40 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $214.09 | 34 | $7,279.06 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 10, 2026 9:30am ET | $226.50 | 34 | $7,701.00 | $7,857.87 |
+$421.94 (+5.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 13, 2026 3:15pm ET | $229.39 | 34 | $7,799.26 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 23, 2026 11:40am ET | $213.17 | 34 | $7,247.78 | $7,306.39 |
$-551.48 (-7.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
9.9d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 27, 2026 3:10pm ET | $239.26 | 30 | $7,177.65 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 28, 2026 11:15am ET | $251.59 | 30 | $7,547.55 | $7,676.29 |
+$369.90 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
20.1h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 29, 2026 12:35pm ET | $261.74 | 29 | $7,590.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 30, 2026 10:30am ET | $242.81 | 29 | $7,041.49 | $7,127.23 |
$-549.06 (-7.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21.9h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 3, 2026 1:45pm ET | $252.73 | 28 | $7,076.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 7, 2026 10:05am ET | $265.92 | 28 | $7,445.76 | $7,496.55 |
+$369.32 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.8d held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 10, 2026 2:45pm ET | $271.33 | 27 | $7,326.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 17, 2026 12:05pm ET | $251.63 | 27 | $6,794.06 | $6,964.57 |
$-531.98 (-7.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6.9d held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 18, 2026 2:45pm ET | $265.32 | 26 | $6,898.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $279.18 | 26 | $7,258.68 | $7,324.93 |
+$360.36 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
8.8d held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 28, 2026 12:25pm ET | $291.67 | 25 | $7,291.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 4, 2026 9:30am ET | $266.70 | 25 | $6,667.50 | $6,700.68 |
$-624.25 (-8.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6.9d held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $256.90 | 26 | $6,679.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 18, 2026 9:30am ET | $251.58 | 26 | $6,541.13 | $6,562.41 |
$-138.27 (-2.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$6,562.41
Net Profit/Loss:
$-3,437.59
Total Return:
-34.38%