AMD Reversion's Analysis
Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 49 trades in period
+92.41%
Year to Date Return
$19,832.78
Current Value
67%
Win Rate
$10,307.57
Period Start
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 2.8
Storm
⛈️ 1 storm day in 7d
RSI(14)
30.4 neutral
20d Trend
-15.2%
5d Trend
-20.7%
EMA20 Dist
-16.9%
ATR%
7.4%
Range Pos
1%
Bounce Ratio
0.7×
Green/Red 10d
3/7
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
46
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
14.4/35
Total Return
16.6/25
Win Rate
7.4/15
Profit Factor
3.0/15
Consistency
5.5/10
Raw Quality
46.9/100
× Confidence 0.98
= 46.0
30-Day Momentum
9
+0.6%
30d Return
67%
Win Rate
3
Trades
1.0×
Profit Factor
Quality: 14.2
Conf: 0.61×
Declining (-37 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Year to Date)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
16,962
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
189 days
Data Gaps
None (8 market holidays)
Market Closed (8 days)
2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Year to Date)
Period Start Capital
$10,307.57
Current Value
$19,832.78
Period P&L
$9,525.21
Max Drawdown
-23.9%
Sharpe Ratio
0.25
Trade Statistics (Year to Date)
Trades in Period
49
Winners / Losers
33 /
16
Best Trade
+19.91%
Worst Trade
-8.52%
Avg Trade Return
+1.54%
Avg Hold Time
2.4d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,312,511.36
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$9,525.21
Net P&L (after fees)
$9,525.21
Gross Return
+92.41%
Net Return (after fees)
+92.41%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 AMD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 189 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Year to Date - 49 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Reversion had $10,307.57 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 6, 2026 10:40am ET | $213.20 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 7, 2026 9:30am ET | $207.93 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,054.61 |
$-252.96 (-2.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 7, 2026 9:35am ET | $208.23 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 7, 2026 10:05am ET | $210.35 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,156.47 |
+$101.86 (+1.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 14, 2026 9:30am ET | $217.25 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 14, 2026 10:10am ET | $219.60 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,264.42 |
+$107.95 (+1.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 26, 2026 9:45am ET | $252.20 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 27, 2026 9:45am ET | $251.74 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,246.13 |
$-18.29 (-0.2%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 29, 2026 10:30am ET | $246.74 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 29, 2026 11:00am ET | $241.48 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,030.47 |
$-215.66 (-2.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 30, 2026 9:30am ET | $241.24 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 30, 2026 9:35am ET | $244.36 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,158.60 |
+$128.13 (+1.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 4, 2026 9:30am ET | $211.66 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 4, 2026 9:35am ET | $215.39 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,333.91 |
+$175.31 (+1.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 10:00am ET | $196.39 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 10:30am ET | $192.30 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,121.23 |
$-212.68 (-2.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 11, 2026 10:20am ET | $209.63 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 11, 2026 10:40am ET | $212.12 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,240.75 |
+$119.52 (+1.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 12, 2026 11:25am ET | $206.24 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 12, 2026 12:35pm ET | $208.62 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,357.37 |
+$116.62 (+1.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 6, 2026 1:55pm ET | $196.65 | 52 | $10,226.06 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 11, 2026 9:40am ET | $207.57 | 52 | $10,793.90 | $10,925.21 |
+$567.84 (+5.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.8d held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 12, 2026 9:40am ET | $202.10 | 54 | $10,913.41 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $206.40 | 54 | $11,145.33 | $11,157.13 |
+$231.92 (+2.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
11d held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $201.39 | 55 | $11,076.45 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 25, 2026 9:30am ET | $211.51 | 55 | $11,632.78 | $11,713.46 |
+$556.33 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $217.85 | 53 | $11,546.31 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $201.85 | 53 | $10,698.05 | $10,865.20 |
$-848.26 (-7.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 30, 2026 3:10pm ET | $193.90 | 56 | $10,858.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 31, 2026 3:25pm ET | $203.74 | 56 | $11,409.44 | $11,415.96 |
+$550.76 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $204.05 | 55 | $11,222.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 2, 2026 11:20am ET | $214.54 | 55 | $11,799.43 | $11,992.64 |
+$576.68 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.8h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 6, 2026 1:00pm ET | $219.36 | 54 | $11,845.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $232.37 | 54 | $12,547.98 | $12,695.18 |
+$702.54 (+5.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 13, 2026 9:40am ET | $244.32 | 51 | $12,460.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 15, 2026 10:35am ET | $256.55 | 51 | $13,084.05 | $13,318.91 |
+$623.73 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 20, 2026 12:45pm ET | $273.34 | 48 | $13,120.51 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 22, 2026 9:30am ET | $291.27 | 48 | $13,980.96 | $14,179.36 |
+$860.45 (+6.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 23, 2026 1:15pm ET | $305.58 | 46 | $14,056.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $336.83 | 46 | $15,494.41 | $15,617.09 |
+$1,437.73 (+10.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
20.3h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 27, 2026 9:35am ET | $338.27 | 46 | $15,560.42 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 28, 2026 9:30am ET | $311.88 | 46 | $14,346.25 | $14,402.92 |
$-1,214.17 (-7.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.9h held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 29, 2026 9:35am ET | $321.40 | 44 | $14,141.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 29, 2026 2:50pm ET | $337.47 | 44 | $14,848.68 | $15,110.00 |
+$707.08 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5.3h held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | May 4, 2026 9:35am ET | $355.94 | 42 | $14,949.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $426.80 | 42 | $17,925.60 | $18,086.12 |
+$2,976.12 (+19.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | May 7, 2026 9:45am ET | $411.41 | 43 | $17,690.63 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 8, 2026 9:50am ET | $433.13 | 43 | $18,624.38 | $19,019.86 |
+$933.74 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | May 11, 2026 1:20pm ET | $462.36 | 41 | $18,956.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 12, 2026 12:40pm ET | $429.50 | 41 | $17,609.50 | $17,672.60 |
$-1,347.26 (-7.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.3h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | May 13, 2026 2:55pm ET | $447.17 | 39 | $17,439.82 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 18, 2026 10:35am ET | $413.82 | 39 | $16,138.98 | $16,371.76 |
$-1,300.84 (-7.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.8d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | May 19, 2026 3:55pm ET | $412.41 | 39 | $16,083.99 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 20, 2026 9:45am ET | $434.83 | 39 | $16,958.18 | $17,245.95 |
+$874.19 (+5.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
17.8h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | May 21, 2026 10:20am ET | $433.77 | 39 | $16,916.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 22, 2026 9:30am ET | $469.87 | 39 | $18,324.93 | $18,654.04 |
+$1,408.09 (+8.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.2h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | May 27, 2026 9:45am ET | $494.70 | 37 | $18,303.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 28, 2026 11:20am ET | $521.41 | 37 | $19,292.17 | $19,642.31 |
+$988.27 (+5.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | May 29, 2026 12:55pm ET | $508.99 | 38 | $19,341.62 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 3, 2026 9:35am ET | $540.51 | 38 | $20,539.19 | $20,839.88 |
+$1,197.57 (+6.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.9d held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 4, 2026 9:35am ET | $513.99 | 40 | $20,559.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 5, 2026 12:25pm ET | $477.82 | 40 | $19,112.80 | $19,392.88 |
$-1,447.00 (-7.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 8, 2026 3:20pm ET | $486.44 | 39 | $18,971.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 9, 2026 12:20pm ET | $444.99 | 39 | $17,354.61 | $17,776.33 |
$-1,616.55 (-8.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21h held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 11, 2026 12:50pm ET | $463.08 | 38 | $17,597.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 11, 2026 3:20pm ET | $486.24 | 38 | $18,477.12 | $18,656.33 |
+$880.00 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.5h held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 12, 2026 3:35pm ET | $511.02 | 36 | $18,396.54 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 15, 2026 9:35am ET | $547.16 | 36 | $19,697.68 | $19,957.47 |
+$1,301.14 (+7.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.8d held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 16, 2026 9:35am ET | $542.51 | 36 | $19,530.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 26, 2026 9:35am ET | $507.44 | 36 | $18,267.84 | $18,695.13 |
$-1,262.34 (-6.5%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 29, 2026 10:05am ET | $508.80 | 36 | $18,316.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 29, 2026 1:10pm ET | $534.49 | 36 | $19,241.82 | $19,620.15 |
+$925.02 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.1h held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 1, 2026 9:30am ET | $554.11 | 35 | $19,393.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 2, 2026 11:15am ET | $515.23 | 35 | $18,033.05 | $18,259.35 |
$-1,360.80 (-7.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 7, 2026 9:30am ET | $516.08 | 35 | $18,062.63 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 9, 2026 9:35am ET | $547.17 | 35 | $19,150.95 | $19,347.67 |
+$1,088.32 (+6.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 13, 2026 9:30am ET | $535.52 | 36 | $19,278.54 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 14, 2026 9:30am ET | $562.40 | 36 | $20,246.40 | $20,315.53 |
+$967.86 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 15, 2026 10:00am ET | $543.64 | 37 | $20,114.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 16, 2026 12:00pm ET | $504.34 | 37 | $18,660.58 | $18,861.43 |
$-1,454.10 (-7.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 17, 2026 2:10pm ET | $497.30 | 37 | $18,400.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 21, 2026 9:30am ET | $526.61 | 37 | $19,484.57 | $19,945.90 |
+$1,084.47 (+5.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.8d held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $547.30 | 36 | $19,702.98 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 27, 2026 9:40am ET | $507.08 | 36 | $18,254.88 | $18,497.80 |
$-1,448.10 (-7.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4d held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 28, 2026 9:40am ET | $455.61 | 40 | $18,224.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 30, 2026 9:55am ET | $479.33 | 40 | $19,173.00 | $19,446.60 |
+$948.80 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
|
| 44 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 31, 2026 2:15pm ET | $486.27 | 39 | $18,964.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 4, 2026 9:40am ET | $511.86 | 39 | $19,962.54 | $20,444.41 |
+$997.81 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.8d held |
|
| 45 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 5, 2026 9:40am ET | $494.60 | 41 | $20,278.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $514.39 | 41 | $21,089.99 | $21,255.80 |
+$811.39 (+4.0%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
12d held |
|
| 46 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 18, 2026 9:30am ET | $488.00 | 43 | $20,984.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 24, 2026 10:00am ET | $452.19 | 43 | $19,444.17 | $19,715.97 |
$-1,539.83 (-7.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6d held |
|
| 47 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $475.04 | 41 | $19,476.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $488.88 | 41 | $20,044.08 | $20,283.41 |
+$567.44 (+2.9%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
13d held |
|
| 48 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 9, 2026 2:55pm ET | $521.06 | 38 | $19,800.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 14, 2026 9:35am ET | $483.48 | 38 | $18,372.43 | $18,855.56 |
$-1,427.85 (-7.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.8d held |
|
| 49 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 16, 2026 1:00pm ET | $520.93 | 36 | $18,753.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 17, 2026 12:10pm ET | $548.08 | 36 | $19,730.70 | $19,832.78 |
+$977.22 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.2h held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$19,832.78
Net Profit/Loss:
+$9,832.78
Total Return:
+98.33%