Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-24 23:02:54

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
22.1 oversold
20d Trend
-18.5%
5d Trend
-17.4%
EMA20 Dist
-14.4%
ATR%
4.1%
Range Pos
2%
Bounce Ratio
0.2×
Green/Red 10d
3/7

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

21
Lifetime
Confidence: 85%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
1.7/35
Total Return
7.0/25
Win Rate
9.1/15
Profit Factor
0.5/15
Consistency
6.3/10
Raw Quality 24.6/100
× Confidence 0.85 = 21.0

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (85%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Year to Date)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
16,989
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
189 days
Data Gaps
None (8 market holidays)

Market Closed (8 days)

2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Year to Date)

Period Start Capital
$12,098.68
Current Value
$10,291.28
Period P&L
$-1,807.40
Max Drawdown
-12.5%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.13

Trade Statistics (Year to Date)

Trades in Period
22
Winners / Losers
9 / 13
Best Trade
+5.75%
Worst Trade
-9.70%
Avg Trade Return
-0.61%
Avg Hold Time
8.3d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$434,873.31
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-1,807.40
Net P&L (after fees)
$-1,807.40
Gross Return
-14.94%
Net Return (after fees)
-14.94%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 AMZN Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 189 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Year to Date - 22 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Reversion had $12,098.68 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jan 20, 2026 9:35am ET $232.63 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 21, 2026 9:35am ET $230.14 0 $0.00 $11,969.20 $-129.48
(-1.1%)
END_OF_DAY
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Feb 5, 2026 9:30am ET $224.82 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 6, 2026 9:30am ET $203.01 0 $0.00 $10,813.53 $-1,155.67
(-9.7%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Feb 6, 2026 9:35am ET $202.34 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 6, 2026 10:15am ET $204.39 0 $0.00 $10,922.18 +$108.65
(+1.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Mar 6, 2026 9:30am ET $215.05 50 $10,752.75 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 16, 2026 10:30am ET $209.61 50 $10,480.50 $10,649.93 $-272.25
(-2.5%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
5 🟢 BUY Mar 18, 2026 12:30pm ET $211.36 50 $10,568.24 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 30, 2026 9:30am ET $201.21 50 $10,060.75 $10,142.44 $-507.49
(-4.8%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
11.9d held
6 🟢 BUY Apr 1, 2026 2:00pm ET $211.81 47 $9,955.07 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET $223.99 47 $10,527.53 $10,714.90 +$572.46
(+5.8%)
🎯 +5% Target
6.8d held
7 🟢 BUY Apr 13, 2026 9:40am ET $237.26 45 $10,676.76 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 14, 2026 12:20pm ET $249.35 45 $11,220.75 $11,258.89 +$543.99
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held
8 🟢 BUY Apr 16, 2026 9:30am ET $247.33 45 $11,129.85 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 24, 2026 9:30am ET $259.88 45 $11,694.60 $11,823.64 +$564.75
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
8d held
9 🟢 BUY Apr 27, 2026 9:45am ET $262.09 45 $11,794.05 — — —
🔴 SELL May 4, 2026 10:45am ET $275.25 45 $12,386.25 $12,415.84 +$592.20
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
7d held
10 🟢 BUY May 5, 2026 12:30pm ET $273.87 45 $12,324.15 — — —
🔴 SELL May 15, 2026 12:30pm ET $262.69 45 $11,821.05 $11,912.74 $-503.10
(-4.1%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
11 🟢 BUY May 18, 2026 2:05pm ET $264.24 45 $11,890.80 — — —
🔴 SELL May 28, 2026 2:05pm ET $272.42 45 $12,258.90 $12,280.84 +$368.10
(+3.1%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
12 🟢 BUY Jun 1, 2026 9:30am ET $266.29 46 $12,249.34 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 5, 2026 3:00pm ET $247.64 46 $11,391.44 $11,422.94 $-857.90
(-7.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4.2d held
13 🟢 BUY Jun 9, 2026 12:55pm ET $240.88 47 $11,321.59 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 22, 2026 9:30am ET $240.39 47 $11,298.33 $11,399.68 $-23.26
(-0.2%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
12.9d held
14 🟢 BUY Jun 23, 2026 9:30am ET $232.55 49 $11,394.95 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 29, 2026 10:15am ET $244.44 49 $11,977.56 $11,982.29 +$582.61
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
6d held
15 🟢 BUY Jun 23, 2026 9:30am ET $232.55 49 $11,394.95 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 6, 2026 9:30am ET $243.63 49 $11,937.63 $12,524.96 +$542.67
(+4.8%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
13d held
16 🟢 BUY Jul 8, 2026 9:30am ET $244.18 51 $12,453.33 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 16, 2026 10:30am ET $256.55 51 $13,084.30 $13,155.93 +$630.97
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
8d held
17 🟢 BUY Jul 17, 2026 12:05pm ET $247.71 53 $13,128.63 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 27, 2026 12:05pm ET $231.96 53 $12,293.89 $12,321.19 $-834.74
(-6.4%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
18 🟢 BUY Jul 8, 2026 9:30am ET $244.18 51 $12,453.33 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 30, 2026 9:35am ET $232.93 51 $11,879.43 $11,747.29 $-573.90
(-4.6%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
22d held
19 🟢 BUY Aug 4, 2026 9:30am ET $276.73 42 $11,622.66 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 14, 2026 9:30am ET $264.88 42 $11,124.75 $11,249.38 $-497.91
(-4.3%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
20 🟢 BUY Aug 17, 2026 9:35am ET $261.60 43 $11,248.90 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 27, 2026 9:35am ET $257.92 43 $11,090.56 $11,091.04 $-158.34
(-1.4%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
21 🟢 BUY Aug 31, 2026 9:30am ET $261.96 42 $11,002.32 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 10, 2026 9:30am ET $250.22 42 $10,509.24 $10,597.96 $-493.08
(-4.5%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
22 🟢 BUY Sep 14, 2026 9:30am ET $253.43 41 $10,390.43 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 24, 2026 9:30am ET $245.95 41 $10,083.75 $10,291.28 $-306.68
(-3.0%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $10,291.28
Net Profit/Loss: +$291.28
Total Return: +2.91%
Back to Reversion