Compendium › Reversion › ARKK
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
ARKK
Alpaca Tradeable

Reversion's Analysis

Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 27 trades in period

+9.98%
Year to Date Return
$10,157.98
Current Value
56%
Win Rate
$9,236.13
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 20:20:46

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.18%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.36%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 2.8
Storm
⛈️ 1 storm day in 7d
RSI(14)
19.1 oversold
20d Trend
-20.9%
5d Trend
-12.4%
EMA20 Dist
-13.6%
ATR%
4.1%
Range Pos
3%
Bounce Ratio
0.5×
Green/Red 10d
2/8
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored Sep 25, 2026

15
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.3/35
Total Return
3.4/25
Win Rate
7.0/15
Profit Factor
0.1/15
Consistency
5.0/10
Raw Quality 15.8/100
× Confidence 0.98 = 15.4

30-Day Momentum

22
+4.2%
30d Return
67%
Win Rate
3
Trades
1.5×
Profit Factor
Quality: 36.2 Conf: 0.61×
Steady (+7 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Year to Date)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
15,386
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-09-25
Trading Days
189 days
Data Gaps
None (8 market holidays)

Market Closed (8 days)

2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Year to Date)

Period Start Capital
$9,236.13
Current Value
$10,157.98
Period P&L
$921.85
Max Drawdown
-22.4%
Sharpe Ratio
0.11

Trade Statistics (Year to Date)

Trades in Period
27
Winners / Losers
15 / 12
Best Trade
+6.20%
Worst Trade
-13.86%
Avg Trade Return
+0.53%
Avg Hold Time
6.8d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$426,487.68
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$921.85
Net P&L (after fees)
$921.85
Gross Return
+9.98%
Net Return (after fees)
+9.98%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 ARKK Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 189 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Year to Date - 27 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Reversion had $9,236.13 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jan 20, 2026 9:30am ET $79.66 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 20, 2026 10:40am ET $80.51 0 $0.00 $9,334.46 +$98.33
(+1.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Feb 4, 2026 9:55am ET $70.77 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 4, 2026 12:25pm ET $69.11 0 $0.00 $9,117.00 $-217.46
(-2.4%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Feb 5, 2026 9:55am ET $68.42 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 5, 2026 10:10am ET $66.91 0 $0.00 $8,916.17 $-200.83
(-2.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Feb 11, 2026 10:05am ET $70.26 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 12, 2026 10:05am ET $69.67 0 $0.00 $8,841.83 $-74.34
(-0.8%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
5 🟢 BUY Feb 12, 2026 11:25am ET $67.66 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 12, 2026 1:40pm ET $68.34 0 $0.00 $8,930.23 +$88.40
(+1.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
6 🟢 BUY Mar 6, 2026 9:30am ET $72.06 123 $8,863.38 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 16, 2026 10:30am ET $71.96 123 $8,851.08 $8,917.93 $-12.30
(-0.1%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
7 🟢 BUY Mar 17, 2026 11:40am ET $72.47 123 $8,913.81 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 26, 2026 3:10pm ET $67.39 123 $8,289.58 $8,293.70 $-624.23
(-7.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
9.1d held
8 🟢 BUY Mar 30, 2026 1:15pm ET $63.67 130 $8,277.75 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 31, 2026 12:45pm ET $66.89 130 $8,695.70 $8,711.65 +$417.95
(+5.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
23.5h held
9 🟢 BUY Apr 1, 2026 2:05pm ET $68.67 126 $8,651.79 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET $72.92 126 $9,188.07 $9,247.93 +$536.28
(+6.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
6.8d held
10 🟢 BUY Apr 9, 2026 9:35am ET $69.38 133 $9,227.54 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 14, 2026 9:30am ET $73.53 133 $9,779.49 $9,799.88 +$551.95
(+6.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5d held
11 🟢 BUY Apr 15, 2026 12:45pm ET $76.45 128 $9,785.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 17, 2026 10:50am ET $80.46 128 $10,298.24 $10,312.52 +$512.64
(+5.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held
12 🟢 BUY Apr 20, 2026 10:55am ET $78.12 132 $10,311.84 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 30, 2026 10:55am ET $75.13 132 $9,917.16 $9,917.84 $-394.68
(-3.8%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
13 🟢 BUY May 1, 2026 2:55pm ET $76.87 129 $9,916.23 — — —
🔴 SELL May 11, 2026 2:55pm ET $80.17 129 $10,341.93 $10,343.54 +$425.70
(+4.3%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
14 🟢 BUY May 13, 2026 3:55pm ET $78.11 132 $10,311.18 — — —
🔴 SELL May 26, 2026 9:30am ET $77.21 132 $10,191.72 $10,224.08 $-119.46
(-1.2%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
12.7d held
15 🟢 BUY May 28, 2026 9:30am ET $77.61 131 $10,167.56 — — —
🔴 SELL May 29, 2026 11:15am ET $81.54 131 $10,681.74 $10,738.26 +$514.18
(+5.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held
16 🟢 BUY Jun 2, 2026 9:30am ET $80.59 133 $10,718.47 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 5, 2026 12:40pm ET $74.88 133 $9,959.04 $9,978.83 $-759.43
(-7.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
3.1d held
17 🟢 BUY Jun 8, 2026 3:10pm ET $75.69 131 $9,915.39 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 15, 2026 11:10am ET $79.54 131 $10,420.39 $10,483.83 +$505.00
(+5.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
6.8d held
18 🟢 BUY Jun 17, 2026 2:05pm ET $79.89 131 $10,464.94 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 29, 2026 9:30am ET $79.40 131 $10,401.40 $10,420.29 $-63.54
(-0.6%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
11.8d held
19 🟢 BUY Jun 17, 2026 2:05pm ET $79.89 131 $10,464.94 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 6, 2026 9:30am ET $81.22 131 $10,639.82 $10,595.17 +$174.88
(+1.7%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
18.8d held
20 🟢 BUY Jul 7, 2026 9:30am ET $82.93 127 $10,532.11 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 16, 2026 12:20pm ET $77.10 127 $9,791.07 $9,854.13 $-741.04
(-7.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
9.1d held
21 🟢 BUY Jul 7, 2026 9:30am ET $82.93 127 $10,532.11 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 30, 2026 9:35am ET $71.44 127 $9,072.88 $8,394.90 $-1,459.23
(-13.9%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
23d held
22 🟢 BUY Jul 31, 2026 9:40am ET $71.83 116 $8,332.28 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 4, 2026 9:35am ET $75.55 116 $8,763.80 $8,826.42 +$431.52
(+5.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
4d held
23 🟢 BUY Aug 5, 2026 2:30pm ET $76.33 115 $8,777.95 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 10, 2026 10:15am ET $80.18 115 $9,221.27 $9,269.74 +$443.32
(+5.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
4.8d held
24 🟢 BUY Aug 11, 2026 11:35am ET $80.46 115 $9,252.90 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 21, 2026 9:40am ET $84.66 115 $9,735.90 $9,752.74 +$483.00
(+5.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
9.9d held
25 🟢 BUY Aug 24, 2026 9:40am ET $83.84 116 $9,725.44 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 3, 2026 9:40am ET $85.66 116 $9,936.56 $9,963.86 +$211.12
(+2.2%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
26 🟢 BUY Sep 4, 2026 9:40am ET $85.91 115 $9,879.65 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 14, 2026 9:40am ET $83.24 115 $9,572.60 $9,656.81 $-307.05
(-3.1%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
27 🟢 BUY Sep 15, 2026 2:35pm ET $83.54 115 $9,607.10 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 18, 2026 9:30am ET $87.90 115 $10,108.27 $10,157.98 +$501.17
(+5.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
2.8d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $10,157.98
Net Profit/Loss: +$157.98
Total Return: +1.58%
Back to Reversion