COIN Reversion's Analysis
Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 46 trades in period
-10.21%
Year to Date Return
$9,731.00
Current Value
52%
Win Rate
$10,836.96
Period Start
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
13.1 oversold
20d Trend
-42.6%
5d Trend
-24.4%
EMA20 Dist
-25.8%
ATR%
6.8%
Range Pos
2%
Bounce Ratio
0.1×
Green/Red 10d
2/8
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
14
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
8.8/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
5.2/10
Raw Quality
13.9/100
× Confidence 0.99
= 13.8
30-Day Momentum
35
+8.8%
30d Return
71%
Win Rate
7
Trades
1.3×
Profit Factor
Quality: 44.4
Conf: 0.78×
Accelerating (+21 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Year to Date)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
17,006
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
189 days
Data Gaps
None (8 market holidays)
Market Closed (8 days)
2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Year to Date)
Period Start Capital
$10,836.96
Current Value
$9,731.00
Period P&L
$-1,105.98
Max Drawdown
-28.5%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.02
Trade Statistics (Year to Date)
Trades in Period
46
Winners / Losers
24 /
22
Best Trade
+9.09%
Worst Trade
-7.74%
Avg Trade Return
-0.09%
Avg Hold Time
3.5d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$600,718.67
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-1,105.98
Net P&L (after fees)
$-1,105.98
Gross Return
-10.21%
Net Return (after fees)
-10.21%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 COIN Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 189 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Year to Date - 46 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Reversion had $10,836.96 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 7, 2026 9:35am ET | $244.38 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 7, 2026 12:30pm ET | $246.91 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,948.28 |
+$111.32 (+1.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 9, 2026 9:45am ET | $238.86 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 9, 2026 10:30am ET | $242.49 | 0 | $0.00 | $11,111.63 |
+$163.35 (+1.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 15, 2026 9:30am ET | $248.86 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 15, 2026 10:45am ET | $243.77 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,887.67 |
$-223.96 (-2.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $231.88 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 20, 2026 9:40am ET | $234.27 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,997.47 |
+$109.80 (+1.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $218.16 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 23, 2026 12:25pm ET | $221.67 | 0 | $0.00 | $11,172.97 |
+$175.50 (+1.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 27, 2026 9:40am ET | $208.60 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 27, 2026 11:15am ET | $211.13 | 0 | $0.00 | $11,307.06 |
+$134.09 (+1.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 29, 2026 9:30am ET | $204.46 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 29, 2026 10:00am ET | $200.16 | 0 | $0.00 | $11,070.45 |
$-236.61 (-2.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $189.19 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2026 9:30am ET | $186.02 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,886.60 |
$-183.85 (-1.7%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 3, 2026 9:35am ET | $183.56 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2026 9:45am ET | $185.53 | 0 | $0.00 | $11,002.83 |
+$116.23 (+1.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 4, 2026 9:50am ET | $172.26 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 4, 2026 11:40am ET | $168.36 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,757.13 |
$-245.70 (-2.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $162.93 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 9:55am ET | $158.75 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,480.92 |
$-276.21 (-2.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 11, 2026 9:30am ET | $155.73 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 11, 2026 9:55am ET | $152.03 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,233.02 |
$-247.90 (-2.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 12, 2026 9:40am ET | $148.86 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 12, 2026 10:35am ET | $145.59 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,010.66 |
$-222.36 (-2.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $197.60 | 50 | $9,880.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 16, 2026 10:30am ET | $203.18 | 50 | $10,159.00 | $10,289.66 |
+$279.00 (+2.8%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 18, 2026 9:30am ET | $205.69 | 50 | $10,284.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 24, 2026 10:20am ET | $190.04 | 50 | $9,502.00 | $9,507.16 |
$-782.50 (-7.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6d held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 25, 2026 11:10am ET | $185.43 | 51 | $9,456.93 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 26, 2026 12:35pm ET | $172.34 | 51 | $8,789.34 | $8,839.57 |
$-667.59 (-7.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 30, 2026 12:55pm ET | $161.40 | 54 | $8,715.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 31, 2026 12:40pm ET | $169.83 | 54 | $9,170.82 | $9,294.79 |
+$455.22 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.8h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 2:05pm ET | $174.30 | 53 | $9,237.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $184.94 | 53 | $9,801.82 | $9,858.71 |
+$563.92 (+6.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
6.8d held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 9, 2026 9:35am ET | $172.01 | 57 | $9,804.57 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 14, 2026 9:35am ET | $183.92 | 57 | $10,483.44 | $10,537.58 |
+$678.87 (+6.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5d held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 16, 2026 9:55am ET | $189.90 | 55 | $10,444.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 16, 2026 12:20pm ET | $199.77 | 55 | $10,987.35 | $11,080.43 |
+$542.85 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.4h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 17, 2026 1:25pm ET | $209.50 | 52 | $10,894.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 27, 2026 1:25pm ET | $197.73 | 52 | $10,281.96 | $10,468.39 |
$-612.04 (-5.6%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 29, 2026 9:30am ET | $187.15 | 55 | $10,293.03 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 4, 2026 9:30am ET | $199.40 | 55 | $10,967.27 | $11,142.64 |
+$674.25 (+6.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5d held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | May 5, 2026 9:55am ET | $200.04 | 55 | $11,002.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $185.40 | 55 | $10,196.73 | $10,337.17 |
$-805.47 (-7.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | May 12, 2026 9:30am ET | $211.90 | 48 | $10,171.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 14, 2026 9:45am ET | $196.68 | 48 | $9,440.49 | $9,606.46 |
$-730.71 (-7.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | May 15, 2026 9:45am ET | $196.61 | 48 | $9,437.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $185.66 | 48 | $8,911.78 | $9,080.96 |
$-525.50 (-5.6%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
11d held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | May 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $178.35 | 50 | $8,917.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 29, 2026 11:10am ET | $187.32 | 50 | $9,366.00 | $9,529.46 |
+$448.50 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.1d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $176.94 | 53 | $9,377.82 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 3, 2026 12:20pm ET | $164.50 | 53 | $8,718.50 | $8,870.14 |
$-659.32 (-7.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 4, 2026 3:55pm ET | $164.17 | 54 | $8,865.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 5, 2026 10:20am ET | $152.37 | 54 | $8,227.98 | $8,232.94 |
$-637.20 (-7.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18.4h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $157.30 | 52 | $8,179.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 15, 2026 9:30am ET | $171.60 | 52 | $8,923.20 | $8,976.54 |
+$743.60 (+9.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
6d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 16, 2026 3:55pm ET | $169.81 | 52 | $8,830.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $156.66 | 52 | $8,146.42 | $8,292.84 |
$-683.70 (-7.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6.7d held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 24, 2026 9:40am ET | $156.40 | 53 | $8,288.94 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 25, 2026 9:55am ET | $144.30 | 53 | $7,647.90 | $7,651.80 |
$-641.04 (-7.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 26, 2026 2:25pm ET | $147.28 | 51 | $7,511.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 1, 2026 10:05am ET | $156.08 | 51 | $7,960.16 | $8,100.69 |
+$448.88 (+6.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.8d held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $161.28 | 50 | $8,064.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 6, 2026 12:10pm ET | $169.73 | 50 | $8,486.50 | $8,523.19 |
+$422.50 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.7h held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 7, 2026 2:50pm ET | $164.31 | 51 | $8,379.81 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 17, 2026 2:50pm ET | $157.67 | 51 | $8,041.17 | $8,184.55 |
$-338.64 (-4.0%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 20, 2026 2:50pm ET | $160.71 | 50 | $8,035.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 21, 2026 9:30am ET | $173.90 | 50 | $8,695.00 | $8,843.80 |
+$659.25 (+8.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
18.7h held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 22, 2026 9:30am ET | $173.60 | 50 | $8,680.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 23, 2026 10:40am ET | $160.94 | 50 | $8,047.00 | $8,210.80 |
$-633.00 (-7.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 7, 2026 2:50pm ET | $164.31 | 51 | $8,379.81 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 30, 2026 9:35am ET | $161.88 | 51 | $8,255.88 | $8,086.87 |
$-123.93 (-1.5%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
22.8d held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 31, 2026 9:35am ET | $146.82 | 55 | $8,074.83 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 7, 2026 10:35am ET | $154.19 | 55 | $8,480.45 | $8,492.50 |
+$405.63 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
7d held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 10, 2026 2:15pm ET | $148.56 | 57 | $8,467.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 19, 2026 10:40am ET | $156.45 | 57 | $8,917.64 | $8,942.22 |
+$449.72 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
8.9d held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 21, 2026 2:10pm ET | $185.63 | 48 | $8,910.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 31, 2026 2:10pm ET | $187.07 | 48 | $8,979.36 | $9,011.34 |
+$69.12 (+0.8%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 1, 2026 2:40pm ET | $175.26 | 51 | $8,938.01 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 3, 2026 9:30am ET | $185.08 | 51 | $9,439.08 | $9,512.42 |
+$501.07 (+5.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.8d held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 4, 2026 9:30am ET | $184.35 | 51 | $9,402.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 10, 2026 9:30am ET | $170.81 | 51 | $8,711.21 | $8,821.52 |
$-690.90 (-7.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6d held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 11, 2026 11:50am ET | $177.69 | 49 | $8,707.01 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 14, 2026 9:30am ET | $188.03 | 49 | $9,213.47 | $9,327.98 |
+$506.46 (+5.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.9d held |
|
| 44 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 15, 2026 9:30am ET | $183.85 | 50 | $9,192.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 15, 2026 2:45pm ET | $170.90 | 50 | $8,544.75 | $8,680.23 |
$-647.75 (-7.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.3h held |
|
| 45 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 16, 2026 2:55pm ET | $162.58 | 53 | $8,616.74 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 17, 2026 10:25am ET | $170.88 | 53 | $9,056.51 | $9,120.00 |
+$439.77 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
19.5h held |
|
| 46 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 18, 2026 3:55pm ET | $192.73 | 47 | $9,058.31 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 21, 2026 9:30am ET | $205.73 | 47 | $9,669.31 | $9,731.00 |
+$611.00 (+6.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.7d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$9,731.00
Net Profit/Loss:
$-269.00
Total Return:
-2.69%