Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 5: BULL TREND
Signals generated 2026-09-24 22:26:47

Trend-following and momentum strategies active. Ride winners.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
79.9 overbought
20d Trend
+11.9%
5d Trend
+9.6%
EMA20 Dist
+7.7%
ATR%
2.4%
Range Pos
96%
Bounce Ratio
5.6×
Green/Red 10d
7/3

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

60
Lifetime
Confidence: 84%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
33.0/35
Total Return
14.0/25
Win Rate
9.7/15
Profit Factor
6.9/15
Consistency
8.0/10
Raw Quality 71.5/100
× Confidence 0.84 = 60.4

30-Day Momentum

1
-1.7%
30d Return
25%
Win Rate
4
Trades
0.9×
Profit Factor
Quality: 1.4 Conf: 0.66×
Declining (-59 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (84%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Year to Date)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
14,927
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
188 days
Data Gaps
None (8 market holidays)

Market Closed (8 days)

2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Year to Date)

Period Start Capital
$11,286.69
Current Value
$14,707.08
Period P&L
$3,420.39
Max Drawdown
-2.3%
Sharpe Ratio
0.32

Trade Statistics (Year to Date)

Trades in Period
22
Winners / Losers
12 / 10
Best Trade
+9.69%
Worst Trade
-7.13%
Avg Trade Return
+1.32%
Avg Hold Time
8.7d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$538,834.95
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$3,420.39
Net P&L (after fees)
$3,420.39
Gross Return
+30.30%
Net Return (after fees)
+30.30%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 MRK Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 188 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Year to Date - 22 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Reversion had $11,286.69 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Feb 9, 2026 9:35am ET $119.04 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 10, 2026 9:35am ET $117.62 0 $0.00 $11,152.74 $-133.95
(-1.2%)
END_OF_DAY
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Mar 6, 2026 9:30am ET $114.18 97 $11,075.46 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 16, 2026 10:30am ET $115.35 97 $11,188.95 $11,266.23 +$113.49
(+1.0%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
3 🟢 BUY Mar 17, 2026 1:00pm ET $115.38 97 $11,191.38 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 27, 2026 1:00pm ET $120.59 97 $11,697.23 $11,772.08 +$505.85
(+4.5%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
4 🟢 BUY Mar 30, 2026 3:25pm ET $117.62 100 $11,762.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 8, 2026 3:35pm ET $123.62 100 $12,362.00 $12,372.08 +$600.00
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
9d held
5 🟢 BUY Apr 10, 2026 9:30am ET $121.51 101 $12,273.01 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 20, 2026 9:30am ET $118.04 101 $11,922.04 $12,021.11 $-350.97
(-2.9%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
6 🟢 BUY Apr 21, 2026 9:30am ET $116.53 103 $12,002.08 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 29, 2026 9:30am ET $108.22 103 $11,146.66 $11,165.69 $-855.42
(-7.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
8d held
7 🟢 BUY Apr 30, 2026 9:35am ET $108.99 102 $11,116.98 — — —
🔴 SELL May 1, 2026 10:20am ET $114.46 102 $11,674.92 $11,723.63 +$557.94
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
1d held
8 🟢 BUY May 4, 2026 2:30pm ET $113.20 103 $11,659.60 — — —
🔴 SELL May 14, 2026 2:30pm ET $112.65 103 $11,602.94 $11,666.97 $-56.66
(-0.5%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
9 🟢 BUY May 20, 2026 10:10am ET $113.56 102 $11,583.38 — — —
🔴 SELL May 22, 2026 9:30am ET $120.86 102 $12,327.72 $12,411.32 +$744.35
(+6.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
2d held
10 🟢 BUY May 26, 2026 9:35am ET $121.96 101 $12,318.46 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 5, 2026 9:35am ET $121.45 101 $12,266.45 $12,359.31 $-52.01
(-0.4%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
11 🟢 BUY Jun 9, 2026 3:40pm ET $119.55 103 $12,313.65 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 22, 2026 9:30am ET $113.80 103 $11,721.40 $11,767.06 $-592.25
(-4.8%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
12.7d held
12 🟢 BUY Jun 23, 2026 11:25am ET $117.60 100 $11,760.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 25, 2026 10:00am ET $123.56 100 $12,355.50 $12,362.56 +$595.50
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held
13 🟢 BUY Jun 23, 2026 11:25am ET $117.60 100 $11,760.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 6, 2026 9:30am ET $129.00 100 $12,900.00 $13,502.56 +$1,140.00
(+9.7%)
🎯 +5% Target
12.9d held
14 🟢 BUY Jul 7, 2026 1:05pm ET $128.49 105 $13,491.45 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 17, 2026 1:05pm ET $127.75 105 $13,413.75 $13,424.86 $-77.70
(-0.6%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
15 🟢 BUY Jul 20, 2026 1:25pm ET $125.16 107 $13,392.12 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 24, 2026 3:00pm ET $131.57 107 $14,078.52 $14,111.26 +$686.40
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
4.1d held
16 🟢 BUY Jul 7, 2026 1:05pm ET $128.49 105 $13,491.45 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 30, 2026 9:35am ET $128.76 105 $13,519.80 $14,139.61 +$28.35
(+0.2%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
22.9d held
17 🟢 BUY Jul 31, 2026 9:35am ET $128.68 109 $14,026.12 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 10, 2026 9:35am ET $129.74 109 $14,141.66 $14,255.15 +$115.54
(+0.8%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
18 🟢 BUY Aug 11, 2026 12:35pm ET $129.90 109 $14,159.10 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 17, 2026 10:20am ET $136.40 109 $14,867.06 $14,963.11 +$707.96
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
5.9d held
19 🟢 BUY Aug 20, 2026 9:30am ET $150.93 99 $14,942.07 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 31, 2026 9:30am ET $146.10 99 $14,463.90 $14,484.94 $-478.17
(-3.2%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
11d held
20 🟢 BUY Aug 20, 2026 9:30am ET $150.93 99 $14,942.07 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 3, 2026 11:40am ET $150.69 99 $14,918.31 $14,461.18 $-23.76
(-0.2%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
14.1d held
21 🟢 BUY Sep 4, 2026 12:50pm ET $150.19 96 $14,418.24 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 14, 2026 12:50pm ET $145.34 96 $13,952.16 $13,995.10 $-466.08
(-3.2%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
22 🟢 BUY Sep 16, 2026 2:55pm ET $143.93 97 $13,961.69 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 22, 2026 10:35am ET $151.27 97 $14,673.67 $14,707.08 +$711.98
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
5.8d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $14,707.08
Net Profit/Loss: +$4,707.08
Total Return: +47.07%
Back to Reversion