Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-24 20:34:23

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
23.9 oversold
20d Trend
-14.4%
5d Trend
-9.1%
EMA20 Dist
-9.2%
ATR%
3.4%
Range Pos
3%
Bounce Ratio
0.4×
Green/Red 10d
3/7

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

10
Lifetime
Confidence: 91%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
5.9/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.8/10
Raw Quality 10.7/100
× Confidence 0.91 = 9.8

30-Day Momentum

0
-5.8%
30d Return
33%
Win Rate
3
Trades
0.8×
Profit Factor
Quality: 0.0 Conf: 0.61×
Cooling (-10 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (91%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles Used
49,788
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Date Range
2024-09-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
531 days
Data Gaps
None (21 market holidays)

Market Closed (21 days)

2024-11-28 — Thanksgiving, 2024-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2025-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2025-01-09 — National Day of Mourning (Carter), 2025-01-20 — MLK Jr. Day, 2025-02-17 — Presidents' Day, 2025-04-18 — Good Friday, 2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed) ... and 1 more
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary

Starting Capital
$10,008.43
Current Value
$6,562.41
Total P&L
$-3,446.02
Max Drawdown
-11.0%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.14

Trade Statistics

Total Trades
59
Winners / Losers
32 / 27
Best Trade
+6.12%
Worst Trade
-13.00%
Avg Trade Return
-0.62%
Avg Hold Time
2.6d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$375,523.86
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-3,446.02
Net P&L (after fees)
$-3,446.02
Gross Return
-34.43%
Net Return (after fees)
-34.43%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 ADBE Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 531 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Complete Trade History

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Reversion had $10,008.43 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Nov 15, 2024 9:30am ET $520.00 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 15, 2024 9:50am ET $506.60 0 $0.00 $9,753.74 $-254.69
(-2.6%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Dec 12, 2024 9:30am ET $493.00 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 12, 2024 9:50am ET $481.85 0 $0.00 $9,541.88 $-211.86
(-2.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Jan 3, 2025 9:30am ET $431.11 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 6, 2025 9:30am ET $432.37 0 $0.00 $9,569.60 +$27.72
(+0.3%)
END_OF_DAY
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Jan 10, 2025 9:30am ET $411.01 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 13, 2025 9:30am ET $407.78 0 $0.00 $9,495.31 $-74.29
(-0.8%)
END_OF_DAY
0m held
5 🟢 BUY Mar 10, 2025 9:30am ET $440.65 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 11, 2025 9:30am ET $437.32 0 $0.00 $9,425.49 $-69.82
(-0.8%)
END_OF_DAY
0m held
6 🟢 BUY Mar 13, 2025 9:30am ET $393.96 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 13, 2025 11:10am ET $384.98 0 $0.00 $9,218.95 $-206.54
(-2.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
7 🟢 BUY Mar 18, 2025 9:40am ET $388.18 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 19, 2025 9:30am ET $393.04 0 $0.00 $9,330.73 +$111.78
(+1.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
8 🟢 BUY Mar 31, 2025 9:30am ET $377.08 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 31, 2025 11:35am ET $381.13 0 $0.00 $9,427.93 +$97.20
(+1.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
9 🟢 BUY Apr 3, 2025 9:30am ET $375.51 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 3, 2025 3:15pm ET $367.82 0 $0.00 $9,235.68 $-192.25
(-2.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
10 🟢 BUY Apr 4, 2025 9:30am ET $356.49 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 4, 2025 10:00am ET $360.72 0 $0.00 $9,341.56 +$105.88
(+1.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
11 🟢 BUY Apr 7, 2025 9:30am ET $337.00 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 7, 2025 9:55am ET $341.40 0 $0.00 $9,460.36 +$118.80
(+1.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
12 🟢 BUY Apr 10, 2025 12:25pm ET $342.78 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 10, 2025 12:45pm ET $347.08 0 $0.00 $9,576.46 +$116.10
(+1.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
13 🟢 BUY Apr 21, 2025 9:55am ET $340.90 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 22, 2025 9:30am ET $344.80 0 $0.00 $9,685.52 +$109.06
(+1.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
14 🟢 BUY Jun 2, 2025 9:30am ET $406.20 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 2, 2025 11:30am ET $397.75 0 $0.00 $9,491.28 $-194.24
(-2.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
15 🟢 BUY Jun 13, 2025 9:30am ET $393.39 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 13, 2025 9:40am ET $385.39 0 $0.00 $9,299.40 $-191.88
(-2.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
16 🟢 BUY Jun 17, 2025 9:40am ET $391.27 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 17, 2025 1:50pm ET $382.98 0 $0.00 $9,108.73 $-190.67
(-2.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
17 🟢 BUY Jul 2, 2025 9:30am ET $378.39 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 3, 2025 9:30am ET $379.79 0 $0.00 $9,142.45 +$33.72
(+0.4%)
END_OF_DAY
0m held
18 🟢 BUY Jul 31, 2025 9:30am ET $357.79 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 31, 2025 10:50am ET $361.47 0 $0.00 $9,234.45 +$92.00
(+1.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
19 🟢 BUY Sep 4, 2025 9:30am ET $335.08 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 4, 2025 10:25am ET $338.94 0 $0.00 $9,338.54 +$104.09
(+1.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
20 🟢 BUY Sep 24, 2025 9:30am ET $351.97 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 25, 2025 9:30am ET $352.83 0 $0.00 $9,360.89 +$22.35
(+0.2%)
END_OF_DAY
0m held
21 🟢 BUY Oct 1, 2025 9:45am ET $342.83 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 2, 2025 9:40am ET $347.75 0 $0.00 $9,493.73 +$132.84
(+1.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
22 🟢 BUY Oct 29, 2025 9:30am ET $347.48 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 29, 2025 11:00am ET $340.46 0 $0.00 $9,304.23 $-189.50
(-2.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
23 🟢 BUY Nov 19, 2025 9:35am ET $318.02 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 20, 2025 9:35am ET $319.56 0 $0.00 $9,348.89 +$44.66
(+0.5%)
END_OF_DAY
0m held
24 🟢 BUY Dec 15, 2025 10:00am ET $345.65 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 15, 2025 11:15am ET $350.13 0 $0.00 $9,469.85 +$120.96
(+1.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
25 🟢 BUY Jan 2, 2026 9:35am ET $342.68 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 2, 2026 10:20am ET $335.35 0 $0.00 $9,272.07 $-197.78
(-2.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
26 🟢 BUY Jan 5, 2026 9:30am ET $327.89 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 5, 2026 9:40am ET $331.39 0 $0.00 $9,369.93 +$97.86
(+1.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
27 🟢 BUY Jan 9, 2026 9:30am ET $331.48 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 9, 2026 1:45pm ET $334.80 0 $0.00 $9,462.75 +$92.82
(+1.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
28 🟢 BUY Jan 12, 2026 9:30am ET $325.71 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 12, 2026 10:55am ET $329.31 0 $0.00 $9,567.01 +$104.26
(+1.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
29 🟢 BUY Jan 13, 2026 9:30am ET $321.28 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 13, 2026 11:25am ET $314.54 0 $0.00 $9,371.55 $-195.46
(-2.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
30 🟢 BUY Jan 27, 2026 9:35am ET $297.12 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 28, 2026 9:30am ET $300.75 0 $0.00 $9,484.08 +$112.53
(+1.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
31 🟢 BUY Jan 29, 2026 9:30am ET $292.60 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 29, 2026 9:40am ET $285.94 0 $0.00 $9,270.96 $-213.12
(-2.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
32 🟢 BUY Feb 3, 2026 9:30am ET $282.01 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 3, 2026 10:35am ET $276.23 0 $0.00 $9,085.97 $-184.99
(-2.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
33 🟢 BUY Feb 4, 2026 9:30am ET $264.94 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 4, 2026 10:05am ET $272.06 0 $0.00 $9,328.05 +$242.08
(+2.7%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
34 🟢 BUY Feb 11, 2026 9:50am ET $257.73 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 12, 2026 9:30am ET $260.77 0 $0.00 $9,437.85 +$109.80
(+1.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
35 🟢 BUY Mar 6, 2026 9:30am ET $281.41 33 $9,286.53 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 13, 2026 9:30am ET $252.22 33 $8,323.26 $8,474.58 $-963.27
(-10.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
7d held
36 🟢 BUY Mar 16, 2026 9:30am ET $248.02 34 $8,432.85 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 26, 2026 9:30am ET $237.34 34 $8,069.56 $8,111.29 $-363.29
(-4.3%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
37 🟢 BUY Mar 27, 2026 9:30am ET $236.38 34 $8,036.92 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 6, 2026 9:30am ET $241.50 34 $8,211.00 $8,285.37 +$174.08
(+2.2%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
38 🟢 BUY Apr 7, 2026 9:30am ET $243.27 34 $8,271.18 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 10, 2026 9:55am ET $225.51 34 $7,667.51 $7,681.70 $-603.67
(-7.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held
39 🟢 BUY Apr 13, 2026 3:10pm ET $237.97 32 $7,615.04 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 16, 2026 9:30am ET $251.55 32 $8,049.60 $8,116.26 +$434.56
(+5.7%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.8d held
40 🟢 BUY Apr 17, 2026 11:15am ET $248.58 32 $7,954.56 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 27, 2026 11:15am ET $241.80 32 $7,737.60 $7,899.30 $-216.96
(-2.7%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
41 🟢 BUY Apr 29, 2026 9:30am ET $240.97 32 $7,711.04 — — —
🔴 SELL May 4, 2026 10:15am ET $253.36 32 $8,107.52 $8,295.78 +$396.48
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
5d held
42 🟢 BUY May 6, 2026 9:30am ET $250.76 33 $8,275.08 — — —
🔴 SELL May 13, 2026 12:25pm ET $232.86 33 $7,684.38 $7,705.08 $-590.70
(-7.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
7.1d held
43 🟢 BUY May 15, 2026 2:45pm ET $246.65 31 $7,646.30 — — —
🔴 SELL May 19, 2026 9:30am ET $260.15 31 $8,064.53 $8,123.30 +$418.22
(+5.5%)
🎯 +5% Target
3.8d held
44 🟢 BUY May 20, 2026 9:30am ET $250.27 32 $8,008.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 1, 2026 9:30am ET $263.09 32 $8,418.88 $8,533.38 +$410.08
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
12d held
45 🟢 BUY Jun 2, 2026 9:30am ET $264.17 32 $8,453.28 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 8, 2026 9:45am ET $245.20 32 $7,846.40 $7,926.50 $-606.88
(-7.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
6d held
46 🟢 BUY Jun 10, 2026 9:30am ET $232.65 34 $7,909.93 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 12, 2026 9:30am ET $202.40 34 $6,881.60 $6,898.17 $-1,028.33
(-13.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held
47 🟢 BUY Jun 15, 2026 12:45pm ET $207.74 33 $6,855.26 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 18, 2026 9:35am ET $191.50 33 $6,319.50 $6,362.41 $-535.76
(-7.8%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held
48 🟢 BUY Jun 22, 2026 9:35am ET $192.96 32 $6,174.64 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 26, 2026 3:50pm ET $202.65 32 $6,484.64 $6,672.41 +$310.00
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
4.3d held
49 🟢 BUY Jun 30, 2026 9:30am ET $204.85 32 $6,555.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 2, 2026 9:30am ET $217.38 32 $6,956.32 $7,073.53 +$401.12
(+6.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
2d held
50 🟢 BUY Jul 6, 2026 9:30am ET $215.46 32 $6,894.56 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 7, 2026 11:20am ET $226.78 32 $7,256.96 $7,435.93 +$362.40
(+5.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held
51 🟢 BUY Jul 9, 2026 9:30am ET $214.09 34 $7,279.06 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 10, 2026 9:30am ET $226.50 34 $7,701.00 $7,857.87 +$421.94
(+5.8%)
🎯 +5% Target
1d held
52 🟢 BUY Jul 13, 2026 3:15pm ET $229.39 34 $7,799.26 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 23, 2026 11:40am ET $213.17 34 $7,247.78 $7,306.39 $-551.48
(-7.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
9.9d held
53 🟢 BUY Jul 27, 2026 3:10pm ET $239.26 30 $7,177.65 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 28, 2026 11:15am ET $251.59 30 $7,547.55 $7,676.29 +$369.90
(+5.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
20.1h held
54 🟢 BUY Jul 29, 2026 12:35pm ET $261.74 29 $7,590.55 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 30, 2026 10:30am ET $242.81 29 $7,041.49 $7,127.23 $-549.06
(-7.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
21.9h held
55 🟢 BUY Aug 3, 2026 1:45pm ET $252.73 28 $7,076.44 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 7, 2026 10:05am ET $265.92 28 $7,445.76 $7,496.55 +$369.32
(+5.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
3.8d held
56 🟢 BUY Aug 10, 2026 2:45pm ET $271.33 27 $7,326.04 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 17, 2026 12:05pm ET $251.63 27 $6,794.06 $6,964.57 $-531.98
(-7.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
6.9d held
57 🟢 BUY Aug 18, 2026 2:45pm ET $265.32 26 $6,898.32 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 27, 2026 9:30am ET $279.18 26 $7,258.68 $7,324.93 +$360.36
(+5.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
8.8d held
58 🟢 BUY Aug 28, 2026 12:25pm ET $291.67 25 $7,291.75 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 4, 2026 9:30am ET $266.70 25 $6,667.50 $6,700.68 $-624.25
(-8.6%)
🛑 -10% Stop
6.9d held
59 🟢 BUY Sep 8, 2026 9:30am ET $256.90 26 $6,679.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 18, 2026 9:30am ET $251.58 26 $6,541.13 $6,562.41 $-138.27
(-2.1%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $6,562.41
Net Profit/Loss: $-3,437.59
Total Return: -34.38%
Back to Reversion