AMGN Reversion's Analysis
2024-01-02 00:00:00+00 to 2026-09-24 19:55:00+00 • 45 trades executed
+10.03%
2 Years Return
$11,002.65
Current Value
57%
Win Rate
$9,999.24
Period Start
PHASE 5: BULL TREND
Trend-following and momentum strategies active. Ride winners.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
4.96%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.26%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
74.9 overbought
20d Trend
+13.8%
5d Trend
+8.9%
EMA20 Dist
+7.0%
ATR%
3.0%
Range Pos
95%
Bounce Ratio
3.1×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
23
Lifetime
Confidence: 85%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
4.9/35
Total Return
8.7/25
Win Rate
6.7/15
Profit Factor
1.4/15
Consistency
5.0/10
Raw Quality
26.6/100
× Confidence 0.85
= 22.8
30-Day Momentum
1
-9.0%
30d Return
25%
Win Rate
4
Trades
0.6×
Profit Factor
Quality: 1.4
Conf: 0.66×
Declining (-22 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (85%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles Used
42,857
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Date Range
2024-09-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
511 days
Data Gaps
None (21 market holidays)
Market Closed (21 days)
2024-11-28 — Thanksgiving, 2024-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2025-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2025-01-09 — National Day of Mourning (Carter), 2025-01-20 — MLK Jr. Day, 2025-02-17 — Presidents' Day, 2025-04-18 — Good Friday, 2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed) ... and 1 more
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary
Starting Capital
$9,999.24
Current Value
$11,002.65
Total P&L
$1,003.41
Max Drawdown
-7.1%
Sharpe Ratio
0.11
Trade Statistics
Total Trades
37
Winners / Losers
21 /
16
Best Trade
+7.86%
Worst Trade
-7.68%
Avg Trade Return
+0.30%
Avg Hold Time
5.4d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$368,820.64
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$1,003.41
Net P&L (after fees)
$1,003.41
Gross Return
+10.03%
Net Return (after fees)
+10.03%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 AMGN Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 511 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Complete Trade History
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Reversion had $9,999.24 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 25, 2024 9:30am ET | $323.44 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 25, 2024 10:15am ET | $316.51 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,791.34 |
$-207.90 (-2.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 12, 2024 2:15pm ET | $307.05 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 12, 2024 2:30pm ET | $300.27 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,581.31 |
$-210.03 (-2.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 14, 2024 9:30am ET | $294.20 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 14, 2024 11:30am ET | $297.19 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,676.99 |
+$95.68 (+1.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 15, 2024 9:30am ET | $289.53 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 15, 2024 9:45am ET | $283.29 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,470.91 |
$-206.08 (-2.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 26, 2024 9:30am ET | $261.43 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 26, 2024 9:40am ET | $265.22 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,607.35 |
+$136.44 (+1.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 19, 2024 9:45am ET | $254.81 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 19, 2024 10:25am ET | $257.37 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,702.25 |
+$94.90 (+1.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 12, 2025 9:30am ET | $312.05 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 12, 2025 12:15pm ET | $315.21 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,800.05 |
+$97.80 (+1.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 7, 2025 9:30am ET | $286.73 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2025 10:10am ET | $293.13 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,017.48 |
+$217.43 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 9, 2025 9:30am ET | $272.57 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 9, 2025 9:35am ET | $275.57 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,125.48 |
+$108.00 (+1.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 10, 2025 10:00am ET | $280.57 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 10, 2025 11:35am ET | $274.04 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,890.40 |
$-235.08 (-2.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 16, 2025 10:00am ET | $287.52 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 16, 2025 3:20pm ET | $281.41 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,682.66 |
$-207.74 (-2.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 17, 2025 9:30am ET | $273.00 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 17, 2025 12:15pm ET | $276.87 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,818.11 |
+$135.45 (+1.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | May 1, 2025 9:30am ET | $283.42 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 1, 2025 10:00am ET | $287.66 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,962.27 |
+$144.16 (+1.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | May 2, 2025 10:05am ET | $277.24 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 2, 2025 11:00am ET | $280.45 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,074.62 |
+$112.35 (+1.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | May 8, 2025 9:30am ET | $267.76 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 8, 2025 11:10am ET | $270.80 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,187.01 |
+$112.39 (+1.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 23, 2025 2:30pm ET | $275.64 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 23, 2025 2:50pm ET | $270.00 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,983.80 |
$-203.21 (-2.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 6, 2025 9:30am ET | $287.70 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 6, 2025 2:45pm ET | $281.79 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,782.87 |
$-200.93 (-2.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 6, 2025 10:00am ET | $313.44 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 6, 2025 10:30am ET | $317.32 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,903.13 |
+$120.26 (+1.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $322.60 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 20, 2026 9:40am ET | $325.91 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,002.51 |
+$99.38 (+1.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 6, 2026 2:45pm ET | $367.39 | 27 | $9,919.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 16, 2026 3:45pm ET | $365.82 | 27 | $9,877.14 | $9,960.25 |
$-42.26 (-0.4%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 18, 2026 9:30am ET | $357.64 | 27 | $9,656.15 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 30, 2026 9:30am ET | $350.45 | 27 | $9,462.15 | $9,766.26 |
$-193.99 (-2.0%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
12d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 31, 2026 2:25pm ET | $350.73 | 27 | $9,469.71 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 10, 2026 2:25pm ET | $351.85 | 27 | $9,499.95 | $9,796.50 |
+$30.24 (+0.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 15, 2026 9:50am ET | $348.70 | 28 | $9,763.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $342.86 | 28 | $9,600.08 | $9,632.98 |
$-163.52 (-1.7%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
12d held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 28, 2026 12:40pm ET | $341.35 | 28 | $9,557.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 8, 2026 12:40pm ET | $329.42 | 28 | $9,223.62 | $9,298.80 |
$-334.18 (-3.5%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | May 13, 2026 9:30am ET | $332.33 | 27 | $8,972.91 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $339.95 | 27 | $9,178.78 | $9,504.68 |
+$205.88 (+2.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
13d held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | May 27, 2026 12:20pm ET | $339.40 | 28 | $9,503.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $350.44 | 28 | $9,812.32 | $9,813.80 |
+$309.12 (+3.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
11.9d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 10, 2026 11:55am ET | $345.40 | 28 | $9,671.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 22, 2026 9:30am ET | $342.23 | 28 | $9,582.44 | $9,725.04 |
$-88.76 (-0.9%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
11.9d held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 23, 2026 3:10pm ET | $347.06 | 28 | $9,717.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 2, 2026 9:35am ET | $365.34 | 28 | $10,229.52 | $10,236.88 |
+$511.84 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
8.8d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 6, 2026 9:35am ET | $369.39 | 27 | $9,973.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 16, 2026 9:35am ET | $363.70 | 27 | $9,820.03 | $10,083.25 |
$-153.63 (-1.5%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 17, 2026 11:45am ET | $370.43 | 27 | $10,001.54 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 27, 2026 11:45am ET | $378.38 | 27 | $10,216.26 | $10,297.97 |
+$214.72 (+2.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 6, 2026 9:35am ET | $369.39 | 27 | $9,973.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 30, 2026 9:35am ET | $383.07 | 27 | $10,342.89 | $10,667.20 |
+$369.23 (+3.7%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
24d held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 31, 2026 9:35am ET | $381.89 | 27 | $10,310.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 5, 2026 9:35am ET | $411.89 | 27 | $11,121.16 | $11,477.47 |
+$810.27 (+7.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5d held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 11, 2026 12:05pm ET | $413.14 | 27 | $11,154.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 19, 2026 9:40am ET | $436.06 | 27 | $11,773.62 | $12,096.31 |
+$618.84 (+5.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
7.9d held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 20, 2026 9:40am ET | $435.62 | 27 | $11,761.74 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 31, 2026 9:30am ET | $426.77 | 27 | $11,522.79 | $11,857.36 |
$-238.95 (-2.0%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
11d held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 20, 2026 9:40am ET | $435.62 | 27 | $11,761.74 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 3, 2026 11:35am ET | $442.70 | 27 | $11,953.03 | $12,048.65 |
+$191.29 (+1.6%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
14.1d held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 4, 2026 12:55pm ET | $436.83 | 27 | $11,794.41 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $403.29 | 27 | $10,888.83 | $11,143.07 |
$-905.58 (-7.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.9d held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 9, 2026 9:35am ET | $390.93 | 28 | $10,946.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 21, 2026 9:30am ET | $385.92 | 28 | $10,805.76 | $11,002.65 |
$-140.42 (-1.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
12d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$11,002.65
Net Profit/Loss:
+$1,002.65
Total Return:
+10.03%