IBM Reversion's Analysis
2024-01-02 00:00:00+00 to 2026-09-24 19:55:00+00 • 46 trades executed
-24.96%
2 Years Return
$7,534.84
Current Value
56%
Win Rate
$10,040.63
Period Start
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
41.6 neutral
20d Trend
-5.4%
5d Trend
-6.3%
EMA20 Dist
-3.9%
ATR%
3.9%
Range Pos
40%
Bounce Ratio
1.2×
Green/Red 10d
2/8
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
10
Lifetime
Confidence: 86%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
6.2/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
5.0/10
Raw Quality
11.2/100
× Confidence 0.86
= 9.6
30-Day Momentum
5
+0.3%
30d Return
50%
Win Rate
4
Trades
1.0×
Profit Factor
Quality: 7.9
Conf: 0.66×
Cooling (-4 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (86%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles Used
48,495
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Date Range
2024-09-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
529 days
Data Gaps
None (21 market holidays)
Market Closed (21 days)
2024-11-28 — Thanksgiving, 2024-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2025-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2025-01-09 — National Day of Mourning (Carter), 2025-01-20 — MLK Jr. Day, 2025-02-17 — Presidents' Day, 2025-04-18 — Good Friday, 2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed) ... and 1 more
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary
Starting Capital
$10,040.63
Current Value
$7,534.84
Total P&L
$-2,505.80
Max Drawdown
-5.3%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.09
Trade Statistics
Total Trades
43
Winners / Losers
24 /
19
Best Trade
+7.71%
Worst Trade
-24.83%
Avg Trade Return
-0.52%
Avg Hold Time
3.8d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$396,838.98
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-2,505.80
Net P&L (after fees)
$-2,505.80
Gross Return
-24.96%
Net Return (after fees)
-24.96%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 IBM Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 529 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Complete Trade History
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Reversion had $10,040.63 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 24, 2024 9:30am ET | $218.50 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 25, 2024 9:30am ET | $216.81 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,964.58 |
$-76.05 (-0.8%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 28, 2025 9:30am ET | $247.29 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 28, 2025 10:05am ET | $250.13 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,078.18 |
+$113.60 (+1.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 18, 2025 9:40am ET | $247.24 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 19, 2025 9:40am ET | $247.08 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,071.58 |
$-6.60 (-0.1%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 20, 2025 9:30am ET | $243.90 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 20, 2025 9:40am ET | $238.36 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,844.54 |
$-227.04 (-2.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 3, 2025 10:20am ET | $242.65 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 3, 2025 11:15am ET | $245.15 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,944.54 |
+$100.00 (+1.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 4, 2025 9:30am ET | $237.53 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 4, 2025 12:15pm ET | $232.59 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,741.85 |
$-202.69 (-2.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 7, 2025 9:30am ET | $220.17 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2025 10:10am ET | $228.11 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,091.43 |
+$349.58 (+3.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 24, 2025 9:30am ET | $227.07 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 24, 2025 9:50am ET | $229.84 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,213.31 |
+$121.88 (+1.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 20, 2025 9:30am ET | $278.05 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 20, 2025 9:40am ET | $282.33 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,367.57 |
+$154.26 (+1.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 24, 2025 9:30am ET | $258.76 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 24, 2025 9:55am ET | $253.25 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,147.37 |
$-220.20 (-2.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 23, 2025 9:30am ET | $271.79 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 23, 2025 9:50am ET | $276.98 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,339.44 |
+$192.07 (+1.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 31, 2025 10:15am ET | $302.10 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 31, 2025 10:50am ET | $306.12 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,476.11 |
+$136.67 (+1.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 4, 2025 9:30am ET | $296.42 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 4, 2025 9:40am ET | $300.69 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,625.56 |
+$149.45 (+1.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 7, 2025 9:35am ET | $305.45 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 10, 2025 9:35am ET | $306.92 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,675.54 |
+$49.98 (+0.5%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 25, 2025 9:45am ET | $297.40 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 25, 2025 9:55am ET | $300.91 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,798.57 |
+$123.03 (+1.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 18, 2025 9:45am ET | $296.97 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 18, 2025 10:45am ET | $300.26 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,916.92 |
+$118.35 (+1.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $297.60 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 20, 2026 3:10pm ET | $291.39 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,693.36 |
$-223.56 (-2.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 3, 2026 9:30am ET | $307.51 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2026 9:50am ET | $300.13 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,442.44 |
$-250.92 (-2.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 4, 2026 9:30am ET | $283.43 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 4, 2026 10:35am ET | $286.35 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,547.51 |
+$105.07 (+1.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 12, 2026 9:35am ET | $267.59 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 12, 2026 10:45am ET | $262.21 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,337.88 |
$-209.63 (-2.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $255.84 | 40 | $10,233.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 16, 2026 10:30am ET | $248.71 | 40 | $9,948.20 | $10,052.48 |
$-285.40 (-2.8%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 18, 2026 9:30am ET | $254.14 | 39 | $9,911.46 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2026 9:40am ET | $236.15 | 39 | $9,209.85 | $9,350.87 |
$-701.61 (-7.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
9d held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 30, 2026 12:55pm ET | $238.13 | 39 | $9,286.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 9, 2026 12:55pm ET | $236.48 | 39 | $9,222.72 | $9,286.71 |
$-64.16 (-0.7%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 10, 2026 2:10pm ET | $231.16 | 40 | $9,246.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 15, 2026 9:35am ET | $244.66 | 40 | $9,786.40 | $9,826.71 |
+$540.00 (+5.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.8d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 16, 2026 2:30pm ET | $249.95 | 39 | $9,747.86 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $230.82 | 39 | $9,001.98 | $9,080.84 |
$-745.88 (-7.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6.8d held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 24, 2026 9:40am ET | $227.53 | 39 | $8,873.67 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 4, 2026 9:40am ET | $231.74 | 39 | $9,037.86 | $9,245.03 |
+$164.19 (+1.9%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | May 5, 2026 9:40am ET | $228.34 | 40 | $9,133.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 15, 2026 9:40am ET | $219.07 | 40 | $8,762.88 | $8,874.31 |
$-370.72 (-4.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | May 18, 2026 9:40am ET | $218.57 | 40 | $8,742.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 21, 2026 9:30am ET | $231.72 | 40 | $9,268.80 | $9,400.31 |
+$526.00 (+6.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | May 22, 2026 3:00pm ET | $254.40 | 36 | $9,158.58 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 28, 2026 10:20am ET | $268.36 | 36 | $9,661.14 | $9,902.87 |
+$502.56 (+5.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5.8d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 1, 2026 2:15pm ET | $319.97 | 30 | $9,599.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 5, 2026 9:35am ET | $294.71 | 30 | $8,841.30 | $9,145.07 |
$-757.80 (-7.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.8d held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 8, 2026 11:30am ET | $283.10 | 32 | $9,059.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 17, 2026 3:35pm ET | $262.94 | 32 | $8,414.08 | $8,499.95 |
$-645.12 (-7.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
9.2d held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 22, 2026 9:35am ET | $246.77 | 34 | $8,390.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $261.50 | 34 | $8,891.00 | $9,000.77 |
+$500.82 (+6.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.9h held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 24, 2026 9:40am ET | $257.99 | 34 | $8,771.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 26, 2026 11:30am ET | $271.80 | 34 | $9,241.20 | $9,470.31 |
+$469.54 (+5.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.1d held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 29, 2026 3:50pm ET | $276.74 | 34 | $9,409.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 1, 2026 11:10am ET | $290.89 | 34 | $9,890.39 | $9,951.54 |
+$481.23 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.8d held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 7, 2026 3:10pm ET | $309.34 | 32 | $9,898.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $285.37 | 32 | $9,131.76 | $9,184.42 |
$-767.12 (-7.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.8d held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 10, 2026 12:00pm ET | $289.82 | 31 | $8,984.27 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 14, 2026 9:30am ET | $217.85 | 31 | $6,753.35 | $6,953.51 |
$-2,230.91 (-24.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.9d held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 15, 2026 12:20pm ET | $213.32 | 32 | $6,826.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $218.80 | 32 | $7,001.60 | $7,128.71 |
+$175.20 (+2.6%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
11.9d held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 28, 2026 3:05pm ET | $227.20 | 31 | $7,043.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 5, 2026 1:40pm ET | $238.56 | 31 | $7,395.36 | $7,480.87 |
+$352.16 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
7.9d held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 10, 2026 9:30am ET | $234.60 | 31 | $7,272.45 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $235.50 | 31 | $7,300.50 | $7,508.92 |
+$28.05 (+0.4%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 21, 2026 9:30am ET | $233.41 | 32 | $7,469.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 31, 2026 9:30am ET | $232.90 | 32 | $7,452.80 | $7,492.60 |
$-16.32 (-0.2%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 21, 2026 9:30am ET | $233.41 | 32 | $7,469.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 3, 2026 11:40am ET | $234.68 | 32 | $7,509.76 | $7,533.24 |
+$40.64 (+0.5%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
13.1d held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $231.72 | 32 | $7,415.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 14, 2026 9:30am ET | $249.58 | 32 | $7,986.56 | $8,104.76 |
+$571.52 (+7.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
6d held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 15, 2026 9:30am ET | $246.20 | 32 | $7,878.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 21, 2026 11:25am ET | $228.39 | 32 | $7,308.48 | $7,534.84 |
$-569.92 (-7.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6.1d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$7,534.84
Net Profit/Loss:
$-2,465.16
Total Return:
-24.65%