Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 4: RECOVERY
Signals generated 2026-05-09 05:42:46

Bounce in progress. Hold existing positions, let trailing stops manage exits.

Fear & Greed
38
Fear
VIX
17.1
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.41%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.49%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.75
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟠 2.6
Active
⛈️ 2 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
88.4 overbought
20d Trend
+12.6%
5d Trend
+5.8%
EMA20 Dist
+6.5%
ATR%
1.5%
Range Pos
98%
Bounce Ratio
40.5×
Green/Red 10d
8/2
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Active magnetosphere: slight tilt toward volume/macro strategies.

Strategy Score Scored May 8, 2026

6
Lifetime
Confidence: 69%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
2.3/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
6.3/10
Raw Quality 8.6/100
× Confidence 0.69 = 5.9

30-Day Momentum

0
-5.0%
30d Return
0%
Win Rate
3
Trades
0.6×
Profit Factor
Quality: 0.0 Conf: 0.61×
Cooling (-6 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (69%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles Used
47,507
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Date Range
2024-05-09 → 2026-05-08
Trading Days
523 days
Data Gaps
None (21 market holidays)

Market Closed (21 days)

2024-05-27 — Memorial Day, 2024-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2024-07-04 — Independence Day, 2024-09-02 — Labor Day, 2024-11-28 — Thanksgiving, 2024-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2025-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2025-01-09 — National Day of Mourning (Carter), 2025-01-20 — MLK Jr. Day, 2025-02-17 — Presidents' Day, 2025-04-18 — Good Friday, 2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day ... and 1 more
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary

Starting Capital
$10,039.06
Current Value
$9,734.13
Total P&L
$-304.93
Max Drawdown
-2.2%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.15

Trade Statistics

Total Trades
12
Winners / Losers
5 / 7
Best Trade
+2.98%
Worst Trade
-2.57%
Avg Trade Return
-0.25%
Avg Hold Time
4.6d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$98,344.11
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-304.93
Net P&L (after fees)
$-304.93
Gross Return
-3.04%
Net Return (after fees)
-3.04%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 JNJ Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 523 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Complete Trade History

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Reversion had $10,039.06 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jan 8, 2025 9:30am ET $142.63 0 $0.00
🔴 SELL Jan 10, 2025 9:30am ET $142.03 0 $0.00 $9,996.71 $-42.35
(-0.4%)
END_OF_DAY
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Jan 22, 2025 9:30am ET $143.71 0 $0.00
🔴 SELL Jan 22, 2025 3:55pm ET $145.25 0 $0.00 $10,102.97 +$106.26
(+1.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Apr 1, 2025 9:30am ET $159.38 0 $0.00
🔴 SELL Apr 1, 2025 1:15pm ET $155.86 0 $0.00 $9,880.89 $-222.08
(-2.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Apr 7, 2025 9:30am ET $149.08 0 $0.00
🔴 SELL Apr 7, 2025 10:10am ET $151.37 0 $0.00 $10,031.70 +$150.81
(+1.5%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
5 🟢 BUY Apr 9, 2025 9:30am ET $145.21 0 $0.00
🔴 SELL Apr 9, 2025 9:40am ET $146.72 0 $0.00 $10,135.89 +$104.19
(+1.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
6 🟢 BUY May 13, 2025 9:30am ET $150.44 0 $0.00
🔴 SELL May 14, 2025 9:30am ET $148.24 0 $0.00 $9,988.16 $-147.73
(-1.5%)
END_OF_DAY
0m held
7 🟢 BUY Oct 7, 2025 9:35am ET $183.70 0 $0.00
🔴 SELL Oct 7, 2025 9:45am ET $185.87 0 $0.00 $10,105.07 +$116.91
(+1.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
8 🟢 BUY Mar 9, 2026 1:50pm ET $241.90 41 $9,917.70
🔴 SELL Mar 19, 2026 1:50pm ET $238.24 41 $9,767.84 $9,955.22 $-149.85
(-1.5%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
9 🟢 BUY Mar 20, 2026 3:15pm ET $235.01 42 $9,870.42
🔴 SELL Mar 30, 2026 3:15pm ET $242.02 42 $10,165.05 $10,249.85 +$294.63
(+3.0%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
10 🟢 BUY Apr 1, 2026 12:25pm ET $244.26 41 $10,014.66
🔴 SELL Apr 13, 2026 9:30am ET $237.98 41 $9,757.18 $9,992.37 $-257.48
(-2.6%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
11.9d held
11 🟢 BUY Apr 14, 2026 9:30am ET $234.67 42 $9,856.14
🔴 SELL Apr 24, 2026 9:30am ET $229.79 42 $9,651.18 $9,787.41 $-204.96
(-2.1%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
12 🟢 BUY Apr 27, 2026 9:30am ET $225.55 43 $9,698.61
🔴 SELL May 7, 2026 9:30am ET $224.31 43 $9,645.33 $9,734.13 $-53.28
(-0.5%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $9,734.13
Net Profit/Loss: $-265.87
Total Return: -2.66%
Back to Reversion