Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 5: BULL TREND
Signals generated 2026-09-24 18:52:30

Trend-following and momentum strategies active. Ride winners.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
4.96%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.26%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
71.6 overbought
20d Trend
+5.3%
5d Trend
+2.7%
EMA20 Dist
+2.8%
ATR%
1.5%
Range Pos
87%
Bounce Ratio
3.3×
Green/Red 10d
8/2

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

5
Lifetime
Confidence: 77%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
1.3/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.6/10
Raw Quality 5.9/100
× Confidence 0.77 = 4.6

30-Day Momentum

0
-6.4%
30d Return
0%
Win Rate
3
Trades
0.6×
Profit Factor
Quality: 0.0 Conf: 0.61×
Cooling (-5 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (77%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles Used
44,699
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Date Range
2024-09-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
520 days
Data Gaps
None (21 market holidays)

Market Closed (21 days)

2024-11-28 — Thanksgiving, 2024-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2025-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2025-01-09 — National Day of Mourning (Carter), 2025-01-20 — MLK Jr. Day, 2025-02-17 — Presidents' Day, 2025-04-18 — Good Friday, 2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed) ... and 1 more
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary

Starting Capital
$9,697.23
Current Value
$7,804.99
Total P&L
$-1,892.24
Max Drawdown
-4.1%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.41

Trade Statistics

Total Trades
20
Winners / Losers
9 / 11
Best Trade
+3.21%
Worst Trade
-6.26%
Avg Trade Return
-1.05%
Avg Hold Time
10d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$295,844.13
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-1,892.24
Net P&L (after fees)
$-1,892.24
Gross Return
-19.51%
Net Return (after fees)
-19.51%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 MCD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 520 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Complete Trade History

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Reversion had $9,697.23 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Oct 23, 2024 9:30am ET $295.19 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 23, 2024 10:15am ET $298.67 0 $0.00 $9,808.59 +$111.36
(+1.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Mar 12, 2025 9:45am ET $300.79 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 13, 2025 9:45am ET $301.26 0 $0.00 $9,823.63 +$15.04
(+0.2%)
END_OF_DAY
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Apr 7, 2025 9:30am ET $293.58 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 7, 2025 10:10am ET $299.95 0 $0.00 $10,033.84 +$210.21
(+2.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Mar 6, 2026 9:35am ET $323.82 30 $9,714.53 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 16, 2026 10:35am ET $327.18 30 $9,815.40 $10,134.71 +$100.87
(+1.0%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
5 🟢 BUY Mar 17, 2026 1:45pm ET $327.65 30 $9,829.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 27, 2026 1:45pm ET $307.15 30 $9,214.50 $9,519.71 $-615.00
(-6.3%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
6 🟢 BUY Mar 30, 2026 1:50pm ET $309.17 30 $9,275.25 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 9, 2026 1:50pm ET $310.76 30 $9,322.65 $9,567.11 +$47.40
(+0.5%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
7 🟢 BUY Apr 10, 2026 3:25pm ET $305.25 31 $9,462.75 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 20, 2026 3:25pm ET $306.90 31 $9,513.90 $9,618.26 +$51.15
(+0.5%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
8 🟢 BUY Apr 22, 2026 3:35pm ET $300.07 32 $9,602.24 — — —
🔴 SELL May 4, 2026 9:30am ET $286.58 32 $9,170.56 $9,186.58 $-431.68
(-4.5%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
11.7d held
9 🟢 BUY May 5, 2026 9:40am ET $283.13 32 $9,060.00 — — —
🔴 SELL May 15, 2026 9:40am ET $275.71 32 $8,822.72 $8,949.30 $-237.28
(-2.6%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
10 🟢 BUY May 18, 2026 3:00pm ET $281.61 31 $8,730.06 — — —
🔴 SELL May 28, 2026 3:00pm ET $277.85 31 $8,613.48 $8,832.72 $-116.58
(-1.3%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
11 🟢 BUY May 29, 2026 3:55pm ET $279.65 31 $8,669.15 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 8, 2026 3:55pm ET $277.48 31 $8,602.03 $8,765.60 $-67.12
(-0.8%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
12 🟢 BUY Jun 10, 2026 3:50pm ET $283.10 30 $8,493.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 22, 2026 9:30am ET $276.21 30 $8,286.30 $8,558.90 $-206.70
(-2.4%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
11.7d held
13 🟢 BUY Jun 25, 2026 9:30am ET $272.51 31 $8,447.81 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 6, 2026 9:30am ET $280.36 31 $8,691.16 $8,802.25 +$243.35
(+2.9%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
11d held
14 🟢 BUY Jul 8, 2026 9:30am ET $281.02 31 $8,711.62 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 20, 2026 9:30am ET $268.83 31 $8,333.58 $8,424.21 $-378.04
(-4.3%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
12d held
15 🟢 BUY Jul 8, 2026 9:30am ET $281.02 31 $8,711.62 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 30, 2026 9:35am ET $269.52 31 $8,355.12 $8,067.71 $-356.50
(-4.1%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
22d held
16 🟢 BUY Jul 31, 2026 9:35am ET $266.11 30 $7,983.30 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 10, 2026 9:35am ET $274.66 30 $8,239.80 $8,324.21 +$256.50
(+3.2%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
17 🟢 BUY Aug 12, 2026 9:30am ET $270.50 30 $8,115.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 24, 2026 9:30am ET $271.00 30 $8,130.00 $8,339.21 +$15.00
(+0.2%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
12d held
18 🟢 BUY Aug 12, 2026 9:30am ET $270.50 30 $8,115.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 26, 2026 9:30am ET $268.88 30 $8,066.40 $8,290.61 $-48.60
(-0.6%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
14d held
19 🟢 BUY Aug 27, 2026 9:30am ET $265.36 31 $8,226.16 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 8, 2026 9:30am ET $254.65 31 $7,894.15 $7,958.60 $-332.01
(-4.0%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
12d held
20 🟢 BUY Sep 9, 2026 9:30am ET $254.50 31 $7,889.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 21, 2026 9:30am ET $249.54 31 $7,735.89 $7,804.99 $-153.61
(-1.9%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
12d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $7,804.99
Net Profit/Loss: $-2,195.01
Total Return: -21.95%
Back to Reversion