MDT Reversion's Analysis
2024-01-02 00:00:00+00 to 2026-09-24 19:55:00+00 • 30 trades executed
+2.16%
2 Years Return
$10,319.21
Current Value
55%
Win Rate
$10,100.58
Period Start
PHASE 5: BULL TREND
Trend-following and momentum strategies active. Ride winners.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
4.96%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.26%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
62.3 neutral
20d Trend
+5.9%
5d Trend
+0.9%
EMA20 Dist
+1.9%
ATR%
1.9%
Range Pos
83%
Bounce Ratio
2.8×
Green/Red 10d
6/4
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
16
Lifetime
Confidence: 79%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
2.2/35
Total Return
5.2/25
Win Rate
6.3/15
Profit Factor
0.5/15
Consistency
6.5/10
Raw Quality
20.6/100
× Confidence 0.79
= 16.4
30-Day Momentum
0
-5.0%
30d Return
0%
Win Rate
3
Trades
0.6×
Profit Factor
Quality: 0.0
Conf: 0.61×
Declining (-16 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (79%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles Used
42,654
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Date Range
2024-09-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
515 days
Data Gaps
None (21 market holidays)
Market Closed (21 days)
2024-11-28 — Thanksgiving, 2024-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2025-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2025-01-09 — National Day of Mourning (Carter), 2025-01-20 — MLK Jr. Day, 2025-02-17 — Presidents' Day, 2025-04-18 — Good Friday, 2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed) ... and 1 more
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary
Starting Capital
$10,100.58
Current Value
$10,319.21
Total P&L
$218.63
Max Drawdown
-3.4%
Sharpe Ratio
0.04
Trade Statistics
Total Trades
29
Winners / Losers
16 /
13
Best Trade
+5.23%
Worst Trade
-5.23%
Avg Trade Return
+0.12%
Avg Hold Time
7.2d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$368,153.65
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$218.63
Net P&L (after fees)
$218.63
Gross Return
+2.16%
Net Return (after fees)
+2.16%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 MDT Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 515 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Complete Trade History
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Reversion had $10,100.58 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 19, 2024 9:30am ET | $85.07 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 19, 2024 1:45pm ET | $85.97 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,206.78 |
+$106.20 (+1.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 18, 2025 9:30am ET | $86.45 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 19, 2025 9:30am ET | $86.61 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,225.66 |
+$18.88 (+0.2%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 12, 2025 9:45am ET | $91.24 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 13, 2025 9:40am ET | $92.33 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,347.18 |
+$121.52 (+1.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 4, 2025 9:30am ET | $86.22 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 4, 2025 11:25am ET | $84.21 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,105.98 |
$-241.20 (-2.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 7, 2025 9:35am ET | $81.03 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2025 9:55am ET | $82.00 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,226.26 |
+$120.28 (+1.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | May 22, 2025 9:30am ET | $82.31 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 23, 2025 9:30am ET | $80.43 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,992.52 |
$-233.74 (-2.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 19, 2025 9:30am ET | $88.22 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 19, 2025 9:45am ET | $89.13 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,095.91 |
+$103.39 (+1.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 25, 2025 9:30am ET | $93.35 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 25, 2025 10:05am ET | $94.39 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,208.23 |
+$112.32 (+1.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 1, 2025 10:35am ET | $92.61 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 1, 2025 1:45pm ET | $93.59 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,315.83 |
+$107.60 (+1.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 11, 2026 9:45am ET | $99.09 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 11, 2026 10:10am ET | $100.16 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,427.11 |
+$111.28 (+1.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 6, 2026 9:35am ET | $91.66 | 113 | $10,357.58 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 16, 2026 10:35am ET | $88.06 | 113 | $9,950.78 | $10,020.31 |
$-406.80 (-3.9%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 17, 2026 2:25pm ET | $88.23 | 113 | $9,969.99 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2026 2:25pm ET | $87.08 | 113 | $9,840.04 | $9,890.36 |
$-129.95 (-1.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 30, 2026 3:50pm ET | $85.71 | 115 | $9,856.65 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 9, 2026 3:50pm ET | $88.17 | 115 | $10,139.55 | $10,173.26 |
+$282.90 (+2.9%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 13, 2026 9:30am ET | $87.11 | 116 | $10,104.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $83.87 | 116 | $9,728.92 | $9,798.00 |
$-375.26 (-3.7%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $83.50 | 117 | $9,768.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 4, 2026 9:30am ET | $79.13 | 117 | $9,258.21 | $9,287.29 |
$-510.71 (-5.2%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | May 5, 2026 9:35am ET | $78.24 | 118 | $9,231.73 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 15, 2026 9:35am ET | $77.07 | 118 | $9,094.26 | $9,149.82 |
$-137.47 (-1.5%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | May 19, 2026 1:00pm ET | $78.17 | 117 | $9,145.89 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 29, 2026 1:00pm ET | $74.49 | 117 | $8,715.33 | $8,719.26 |
$-430.56 (-4.7%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $73.84 | 118 | $8,713.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 3, 2026 9:35am ET | $77.71 | 118 | $9,169.19 | $9,175.33 |
+$456.07 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 5, 2026 11:50am ET | $82.00 | 111 | $9,102.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 15, 2026 11:50am ET | $80.46 | 111 | $8,930.51 | $9,003.84 |
$-171.49 (-1.9%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 17, 2026 9:55am ET | $80.67 | 111 | $8,953.82 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 29, 2026 9:30am ET | $81.45 | 111 | $9,040.41 | $9,090.43 |
+$86.59 (+1.0%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
12d held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 17, 2026 9:55am ET | $80.67 | 111 | $8,953.82 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $83.26 | 111 | $9,241.86 | $9,378.48 |
+$288.05 (+3.2%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
19d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 7, 2026 11:05am ET | $84.83 | 110 | $9,331.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 17, 2026 11:05am ET | $83.82 | 110 | $9,219.67 | $9,266.85 |
$-111.63 (-1.2%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 20, 2026 2:55pm ET | $83.64 | 110 | $9,200.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 28, 2026 9:40am ET | $87.96 | 110 | $9,675.60 | $9,742.05 |
+$475.20 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
7.8d held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 7, 2026 11:05am ET | $84.83 | 110 | $9,331.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 30, 2026 9:35am ET | $86.22 | 110 | $9,484.20 | $9,894.95 |
+$152.90 (+1.6%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
22.9d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 31, 2026 9:35am ET | $84.16 | 117 | $9,846.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 10, 2026 9:35am ET | $87.86 | 117 | $10,279.62 | $10,327.85 |
+$432.90 (+4.4%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 12, 2026 9:30am ET | $88.71 | 116 | $10,290.94 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 19, 2026 9:40am ET | $93.35 | 116 | $10,828.60 | $10,865.51 |
+$537.66 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
7d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 20, 2026 12:35pm ET | $93.35 | 116 | $10,828.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 31, 2026 9:30am ET | $90.14 | 116 | $10,456.24 | $10,493.15 |
$-372.36 (-3.4%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
10.9d held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 20, 2026 12:35pm ET | $93.35 | 116 | $10,828.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 3, 2026 11:40am ET | $92.20 | 116 | $10,695.20 | $10,359.75 |
$-133.40 (-1.2%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
14d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $92.93 | 111 | $10,315.23 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 18, 2026 9:30am ET | $92.56 | 111 | $10,274.69 | $10,319.21 |
$-40.54 (-0.4%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$10,319.21
Net Profit/Loss:
+$319.21
Total Return:
+3.19%