MSFT Reversion's Analysis
2024-01-02 00:00:00+00 to 2026-09-24 19:55:00+00 • 37 trades executed
+20.62%
2 Years Return
$12,400.87
Current Value
53%
Win Rate
$10,281.00
Period Start
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
22.7 oversold
20d Trend
-16.1%
5d Trend
-8.1%
EMA20 Dist
-9.8%
ATR%
3.8%
Range Pos
2%
Bounce Ratio
0.3×
Green/Red 10d
2/8
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
36
Lifetime
Confidence: 79%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
18.1/35
Total Return
11.9/25
Win Rate
6.9/15
Profit Factor
2.7/15
Consistency
5.9/10
Raw Quality
45.4/100
× Confidence 0.79
= 35.9
30-Day Momentum
Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (79%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles Used
70,072
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Date Range
2024-09-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
536 days
Data Gaps
None (21 market holidays)
Market Closed (21 days)
2024-11-28 — Thanksgiving, 2024-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2025-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2025-01-09 — National Day of Mourning (Carter), 2025-01-20 — MLK Jr. Day, 2025-02-17 — Presidents' Day, 2025-04-18 — Good Friday, 2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed) ... and 1 more
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary
Starting Capital
$10,281.00
Current Value
$12,400.87
Total P&L
$2,119.86
Max Drawdown
-4.1%
Sharpe Ratio
0.15
Trade Statistics
Total Trades
34
Winners / Losers
18 /
16
Best Trade
+11.09%
Worst Trade
-7.23%
Avg Trade Return
+0.64%
Avg Hold Time
4.7d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$458,663.28
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$2,119.86
Net P&L (after fees)
$2,119.86
Gross Return
+20.62%
Net Return (after fees)
+20.62%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 MSFT Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 536 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Complete Trade History
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Reversion had $10,281.00 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 31, 2024 9:30am ET | $410.20 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 1, 2024 9:30am ET | $409.57 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,265.37 |
$-15.63 (-0.1%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 27, 2025 9:30am ET | $424.66 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 27, 2025 9:45am ET | $429.13 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,372.65 |
+$107.28 (+1.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 30, 2025 9:30am ET | $416.60 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 30, 2025 9:45am ET | $422.66 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,518.09 |
+$145.44 (+1.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 10, 2025 9:30am ET | $384.50 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 11, 2025 9:30am ET | $380.38 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,406.94 |
$-111.15 (-1.1%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 31, 2025 9:30am ET | $368.69 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 31, 2025 2:05pm ET | $372.47 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,512.78 |
+$105.84 (+1.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 3, 2025 9:30am ET | $372.41 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 3, 2025 12:15pm ET | $376.52 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,627.72 |
+$114.94 (+1.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 4, 2025 9:30am ET | $366.04 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 4, 2025 9:45am ET | $369.74 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,735.02 |
+$107.30 (+1.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 7, 2025 9:30am ET | $349.86 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2025 10:10am ET | $362.46 | 0 | $0.00 | $11,113.02 |
+$378.00 (+3.6%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
0m held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 3, 2025 9:30am ET | $476.20 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 3, 2025 10:30am ET | $483.53 | 0 | $0.00 | $11,281.61 |
+$168.59 (+1.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 10, 2025 9:35am ET | $478.97 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 11, 2025 9:35am ET | $478.68 | 0 | $0.00 | $11,275.00 |
$-6.61 (-0.1%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $451.40 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 20, 2026 11:30am ET | $456.02 | 0 | $0.00 | $11,385.92 |
+$110.92 (+1.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 29, 2026 9:30am ET | $432.00 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 29, 2026 11:00am ET | $422.79 | 0 | $0.00 | $11,146.33 |
$-239.59 (-2.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $405.70 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 2:35pm ET | $397.48 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,924.30 |
$-222.03 (-2.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 6, 2026 3:35pm ET | $408.84 | 26 | $10,629.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $399.74 | 26 | $10,393.24 | $10,687.70 |
$-236.60 (-2.2%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
10.7d held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 18, 2026 9:30am ET | $396.21 | 26 | $10,301.46 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 26, 2026 11:45am ET | $368.34 | 26 | $9,576.84 | $9,963.08 |
$-724.62 (-7.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
8.1d held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 27, 2026 12:40pm ET | $359.38 | 27 | $9,703.13 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 6, 2026 12:40pm ET | $372.74 | 27 | $10,063.98 | $10,323.93 |
+$360.85 (+3.7%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 7, 2026 2:45pm ET | $369.69 | 27 | $9,981.63 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 14, 2026 9:35am ET | $392.55 | 27 | $10,598.85 | $10,941.15 |
+$617.22 (+6.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
6.8d held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 17, 2026 1:10pm ET | $425.93 | 25 | $10,648.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 27, 2026 1:10pm ET | $424.41 | 25 | $10,610.25 | $10,903.15 |
$-38.00 (-0.4%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 28, 2026 2:10pm ET | $426.78 | 25 | $10,669.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 8, 2026 2:10pm ET | $415.58 | 25 | $10,389.50 | $10,623.15 |
$-280.00 (-2.6%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | May 12, 2026 9:40am ET | $407.64 | 26 | $10,598.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 19, 2026 9:30am ET | $429.97 | 26 | $11,179.22 | $11,203.73 |
+$580.58 (+5.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
7d held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | May 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $413.81 | 27 | $11,172.87 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 29, 2026 9:35am ET | $439.48 | 27 | $11,865.96 | $11,896.82 |
+$693.09 (+6.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
9d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $446.97 | 26 | $11,621.22 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 5, 2026 3:15pm ET | $414.64 | 26 | $10,780.64 | $11,056.24 |
$-840.58 (-7.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.2d held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 8, 2026 3:55pm ET | $411.23 | 26 | $10,691.98 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 12, 2026 10:05am ET | $382.38 | 26 | $9,941.88 | $10,306.14 |
$-750.10 (-7.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.8d held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 15, 2026 2:35pm ET | $398.56 | 25 | $9,964.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 22, 2026 11:55am ET | $370.63 | 25 | $9,265.75 | $9,607.85 |
$-698.29 (-7.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6.9d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $371.55 | 25 | $9,288.87 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 2, 2026 12:15pm ET | $390.17 | 25 | $9,754.13 | $10,073.10 |
+$465.25 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
8.1d held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $383.75 | 26 | $9,977.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 16, 2026 12:45pm ET | $403.49 | 26 | $10,490.74 | $10,586.34 |
+$513.24 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
8.1d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 17, 2026 3:55pm ET | $393.77 | 26 | $10,238.02 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 27, 2026 3:55pm ET | $389.13 | 26 | $10,117.38 | $10,465.70 |
$-120.64 (-1.2%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 29, 2026 12:10pm ET | $393.27 | 26 | $10,225.02 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 30, 2026 9:30am ET | $436.88 | 26 | $11,358.75 | $11,599.43 |
+$1,133.73 (+11.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
21.3h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 31, 2026 9:30am ET | $450.00 | 25 | $11,250.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 3, 2026 9:30am ET | $476.93 | 25 | $11,923.25 | $12,272.68 |
+$673.25 (+6.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 4, 2026 9:30am ET | $481.45 | 25 | $12,036.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 10, 2026 9:50am ET | $506.69 | 25 | $12,667.25 | $12,903.68 |
+$631.00 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
6d held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 11, 2026 9:50am ET | $500.83 | 25 | $12,520.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 21, 2026 9:50am ET | $481.45 | 25 | $12,036.37 | $12,419.31 |
$-484.38 (-3.9%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 24, 2026 1:00pm ET | $487.94 | 25 | $12,198.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 28, 2026 10:50am ET | $513.28 | 25 | $12,831.88 | $13,052.69 |
+$633.38 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.9d held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 31, 2026 2:35pm ET | $509.88 | 25 | $12,747.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 10, 2026 2:35pm ET | $491.07 | 25 | $12,276.63 | $12,582.32 |
$-470.37 (-3.7%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 14, 2026 3:55pm ET | $505.37 | 24 | $12,128.89 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 24, 2026 3:55pm ET | $497.81 | 24 | $11,947.44 | $12,400.87 |
$-181.45 (-1.5%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$12,400.87
Net Profit/Loss:
+$2,400.87
Total Return:
+24.01%