NFLX Reversion's Analysis
2024-01-02 00:00:00+00 to 2026-09-24 19:55:00+00 • 57 trades executed
-26.53%
2 Years Return
$7,100.95
Current Value
47%
Win Rate
$9,665.38
Period Start
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
4.96%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.26%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
30.2 neutral
20d Trend
-10.9%
5d Trend
-5.8%
EMA20 Dist
-5.4%
ATR%
3.3%
Range Pos
4%
Bounce Ratio
0.9×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
5
Lifetime
Confidence: 88%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
2.1/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
3.6/10
Raw Quality
5.7/100
× Confidence 0.88
= 5.0
30-Day Momentum
3
-4.1%
30d Return
50%
Win Rate
4
Trades
0.9×
Profit Factor
Quality: 5.2
Conf: 0.66×
Cooling (-2 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (88%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles Used
56,412
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Date Range
2024-09-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
534 days
Data Gaps
None (21 market holidays)
Market Closed (21 days)
2024-11-28 — Thanksgiving, 2024-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2025-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2025-01-09 — National Day of Mourning (Carter), 2025-01-20 — MLK Jr. Day, 2025-02-17 — Presidents' Day, 2025-04-18 — Good Friday, 2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed) ... and 1 more
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary
Starting Capital
$9,665.38
Current Value
$7,100.95
Total P&L
$-2,564.43
Max Drawdown
-10.6%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.15
Trade Statistics
Total Trades
53
Winners / Losers
25 /
28
Best Trade
+5.26%
Worst Trade
-9.26%
Avg Trade Return
-0.53%
Avg Hold Time
3.7d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$327,636.90
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-2,564.43
Net P&L (after fees)
$-2,564.43
Gross Return
-26.53%
Net Return (after fees)
-26.53%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 NFLX Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 534 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Complete Trade History
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Reversion had $9,665.38 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 7, 2024 9:30am ET | $70.15 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 7, 2024 10:35am ET | $70.88 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,766.49 |
+$101.11 (+1.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 27, 2024 9:35am ET | $90.28 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 30, 2024 9:35am ET | $89.70 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,703.96 |
$-62.53 (-0.6%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 10, 2025 9:35am ET | $85.38 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 10, 2025 10:15am ET | $83.62 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,504.29 |
$-199.67 (-2.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 25, 2025 10:10am ET | $96.57 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 25, 2025 2:35pm ET | $97.65 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,610.13 |
+$105.84 (+1.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 6, 2025 9:30am ET | $95.92 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 6, 2025 12:10pm ET | $93.96 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,413.29 |
$-196.84 (-2.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 7, 2025 10:30am ET | $87.52 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 7, 2025 1:35pm ET | $88.71 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,540.67 |
+$127.38 (+1.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 10, 2025 9:30am ET | $87.00 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 10, 2025 9:45am ET | $87.90 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,638.72 |
+$98.05 (+1.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 18, 2025 9:35am ET | $93.52 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 19, 2025 9:35am ET | $93.09 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,594.84 |
$-43.88 (-0.5%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 28, 2025 10:55am ET | $94.36 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 31, 2025 9:30am ET | $90.28 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,182.79 |
$-412.05 (-4.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 31, 2025 9:35am ET | $90.72 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 31, 2025 11:35am ET | $91.63 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,274.50 |
+$91.71 (+1.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 4, 2025 9:30am ET | $89.84 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 4, 2025 10:10am ET | $87.72 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,056.86 |
$-217.64 (-2.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 7, 2025 9:30am ET | $83.20 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2025 9:50am ET | $85.22 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,274.80 |
+$217.94 (+2.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 10, 2025 12:00pm ET | $90.72 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 10, 2025 1:30pm ET | $91.68 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,372.62 |
+$97.82 (+1.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | May 5, 2025 9:30am ET | $111.32 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 5, 2025 9:40am ET | $112.89 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,504.81 |
+$132.19 (+1.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | May 12, 2025 9:35am ET | $111.47 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 12, 2025 9:45am ET | $112.77 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,615.31 |
+$110.50 (+1.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | May 29, 2025 9:40am ET | $118.45 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 30, 2025 9:30am ET | $119.92 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,734.70 |
+$119.39 (+1.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 1, 2025 11:10am ET | $129.27 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 2, 2025 11:10am ET | $127.85 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,627.82 |
$-106.88 (-1.1%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 10, 2025 10:30am ET | $124.88 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 10, 2025 11:45am ET | $126.22 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,731.12 |
+$103.30 (+1.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 18, 2025 9:30am ET | $121.73 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 21, 2025 9:30am ET | $121.30 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,697.55 |
$-33.57 (-0.3%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 19, 2025 9:45am ET | $120.87 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 20, 2025 9:45am ET | $121.45 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,743.87 |
+$46.32 (+0.5%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 11, 2025 10:10am ET | $121.65 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 12, 2025 10:10am ET | $119.58 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,578.31 |
$-165.56 (-1.7%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 1, 2025 9:45am ET | $116.51 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 1, 2025 10:15am ET | $117.70 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,675.91 |
+$97.60 (+1.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 22, 2025 9:30am ET | $114.10 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 22, 2025 11:10am ET | $111.80 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,482.93 |
$-192.98 (-2.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 14, 2025 9:50am ET | $112.44 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 17, 2025 9:50am ET | $111.07 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,367.26 |
$-115.67 (-1.2%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 19, 2025 9:30am ET | $111.97 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 19, 2025 12:00pm ET | $109.42 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,155.54 |
$-211.72 (-2.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 3, 2025 9:30am ET | $104.55 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 3, 2025 10:10am ET | $102.31 | 0 | $0.00 | $8,961.09 |
$-194.45 (-2.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 5, 2025 9:30am ET | $100.40 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 5, 2025 9:40am ET | $102.44 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,142.65 |
+$181.56 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 8, 2025 9:30am ET | $98.12 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 8, 2025 10:20am ET | $95.96 | 0 | $0.00 | $8,941.30 |
$-201.35 (-2.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 21, 2026 9:30am ET | $83.18 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 21, 2026 9:40am ET | $84.08 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,037.87 |
+$96.57 (+1.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 27, 2026 9:35am ET | $84.01 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 28, 2026 9:30am ET | $85.46 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,192.53 |
+$154.66 (+1.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 29, 2026 9:35am ET | $83.09 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 30, 2026 9:35am ET | $83.67 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,255.64 |
+$63.11 (+0.7%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 12, 2026 9:30am ET | $78.00 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 12, 2026 10:30am ET | $76.17 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,039.64 |
$-216.00 (-2.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 6, 2026 10:10am ET | $97.50 | 92 | $8,969.54 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 16, 2026 11:10am ET | $95.33 | 92 | $8,770.36 | $8,840.46 |
$-199.18 (-2.2%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 17, 2026 1:45pm ET | $95.06 | 92 | $8,745.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2026 1:45pm ET | $93.44 | 92 | $8,596.94 | $8,691.88 |
$-148.58 (-1.7%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 30, 2026 2:30pm ET | $92.92 | 93 | $8,641.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 2, 2026 10:45am ET | $97.67 | 93 | $9,083.31 | $9,134.09 |
+$442.21 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.8d held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 7, 2026 1:20pm ET | $98.64 | 92 | $9,074.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 13, 2026 1:30pm ET | $103.62 | 92 | $9,533.43 | $9,592.64 |
+$458.55 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
6d held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 14, 2026 2:20pm ET | $105.86 | 90 | $9,526.95 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $96.05 | 90 | $8,644.68 | $8,710.37 |
$-882.27 (-9.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8d held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 20, 2026 11:10am ET | $94.23 | 92 | $8,669.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 30, 2026 11:10am ET | $93.08 | 92 | $8,562.99 | $8,604.20 |
$-106.17 (-1.2%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | May 1, 2026 12:15pm ET | $93.55 | 91 | $8,513.05 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 6, 2026 9:35am ET | $86.89 | 91 | $7,907.44 | $7,998.59 |
$-605.61 (-7.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.9d held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | May 7, 2026 1:00pm ET | $88.44 | 90 | $7,959.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 18, 2026 9:30am ET | $86.38 | 90 | $7,774.20 | $7,813.19 |
$-185.40 (-2.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
10.9d held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | May 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $88.49 | 88 | $7,787.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 1, 2026 9:30am ET | $85.76 | 88 | $7,547.32 | $7,573.39 |
$-239.80 (-3.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
12d held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $84.32 | 89 | $7,504.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 12, 2026 9:30am ET | $81.68 | 89 | $7,269.52 | $7,338.87 |
$-234.52 (-3.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 16, 2026 9:50am ET | $80.72 | 90 | $7,264.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 22, 2026 10:25am ET | $75.03 | 90 | $6,752.25 | $6,826.32 |
$-512.55 (-7.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6d held |
|
| 44 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 24, 2026 9:50am ET | $72.53 | 94 | $6,817.82 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 2, 2026 10:15am ET | $76.35 | 94 | $7,176.62 | $7,185.12 |
+$358.80 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
8d held |
|
| 45 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 6, 2026 1:50pm ET | $76.14 | 94 | $7,156.69 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 16, 2026 1:50pm ET | $73.98 | 94 | $6,954.12 | $6,982.55 |
$-202.57 (-2.8%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held |
|
| 46 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $67.34 | 103 | $6,936.02 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 27, 2026 10:35am ET | $70.73 | 103 | $7,285.19 | $7,331.72 |
+$349.17 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
7d held |
|
| 47 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 6, 2026 1:50pm ET | $76.14 | 94 | $7,156.69 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 30, 2026 9:35am ET | $71.21 | 94 | $6,694.21 | $6,869.24 |
$-462.48 (-6.5%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
23.8d held |
|
| 48 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 31, 2026 9:35am ET | $72.14 | 95 | $6,853.21 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 10, 2026 9:35am ET | $74.08 | 95 | $7,037.60 | $7,053.63 |
+$184.39 (+2.7%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held |
|
| 49 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 11, 2026 3:00pm ET | $74.58 | 94 | $7,010.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 13, 2026 3:55pm ET | $78.32 | 94 | $7,362.08 | $7,405.19 |
+$351.56 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
|
| 50 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 17, 2026 9:40am ET | $77.79 | 95 | $7,389.58 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 25, 2026 11:30am ET | $81.71 | 95 | $7,762.92 | $7,778.54 |
+$373.35 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
8.1d held |
|
| 51 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 26, 2026 3:50pm ET | $81.65 | 95 | $7,756.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $77.47 | 95 | $7,359.65 | $7,381.44 |
$-397.10 (-5.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
12.7d held |
|
| 52 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $76.45 | 96 | $7,339.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 14, 2026 11:10am ET | $80.35 | 96 | $7,713.60 | $7,755.84 |
+$374.40 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5.1d held |
|
| 53 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 15, 2026 3:40pm ET | $77.93 | 99 | $7,715.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 18, 2026 9:30am ET | $71.32 | 99 | $7,060.67 | $7,100.95 |
$-654.89 (-8.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.7d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$7,100.95
Net Profit/Loss:
$-2,899.05
Total Return:
-28.99%