PFE Reversion's Analysis
2024-01-02 00:00:00+00 to 2026-09-24 19:55:00+00 • 38 trades executed
+11.96%
2 Years Return
$11,914.54
Current Value
62%
Win Rate
$10,641.65
Period Start
PHASE 5: BULL TREND
Trend-following and momentum strategies active. Ride winners.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
4.96%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.26%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
56.4 neutral
20d Trend
+5.2%
5d Trend
+0.2%
EMA20 Dist
+1.5%
ATR%
2.4%
Range Pos
77%
Bounce Ratio
1.1×
Green/Red 10d
6/4
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
36
Lifetime
Confidence: 81%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
13.4/35
Total Return
10.8/25
Win Rate
8.7/15
Profit Factor
4.1/15
Consistency
7.0/10
Raw Quality
44.0/100
× Confidence 0.81
= 35.6
30-Day Momentum
0
-1.5%
30d Return
33%
Win Rate
3
Trades
0.9×
Profit Factor
Quality: 0.0
Conf: 0.61×
Declining (-36 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (81%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles Used
72,021
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Date Range
2024-09-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
536 days
Data Gaps
None (21 market holidays)
Market Closed (21 days)
2024-11-28 — Thanksgiving, 2024-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2025-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2025-01-09 — National Day of Mourning (Carter), 2025-01-20 — MLK Jr. Day, 2025-02-17 — Presidents' Day, 2025-04-18 — Good Friday, 2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed) ... and 1 more
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary
Starting Capital
$10,641.65
Current Value
$11,914.54
Total P&L
$1,272.89
Max Drawdown
-2.1%
Sharpe Ratio
0.17
Trade Statistics
Total Trades
29
Winners / Losers
18 /
11
Best Trade
+5.29%
Worst Trade
-4.83%
Avg Trade Return
+0.42%
Avg Hold Time
6.6d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$379,550.43
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$1,272.89
Net P&L (after fees)
$1,272.89
Gross Return
+11.96%
Net Return (after fees)
+11.96%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 PFE Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 536 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Complete Trade History
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Reversion had $10,641.65 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 10, 2024 9:40am ET | $29.42 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 10, 2024 10:30am ET | $29.73 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,750.85 |
+$109.20 (+1.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 6, 2024 9:30am ET | $27.28 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 6, 2024 1:15pm ET | $27.61 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,882.76 |
+$131.91 (+1.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 15, 2024 9:30am ET | $24.88 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 15, 2024 10:25am ET | $25.13 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,994.20 |
+$111.44 (+1.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 8, 2025 9:30am ET | $26.28 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 8, 2025 9:50am ET | $26.62 | 0 | $0.00 | $11,136.32 |
+$142.12 (+1.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 4, 2025 10:25am ET | $25.64 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 4, 2025 12:00pm ET | $25.91 | 0 | $0.00 | $11,252.20 |
+$115.88 (+1.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 4, 2025 9:30am ET | $23.91 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 4, 2025 10:10am ET | $23.41 | 0 | $0.00 | $11,014.85 |
$-237.35 (-2.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 7, 2025 9:30am ET | $22.07 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2025 9:55am ET | $22.29 | 0 | $0.00 | $11,127.12 |
+$112.27 (+1.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 9, 2025 9:30am ET | $21.15 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 9, 2025 10:00am ET | $21.40 | 0 | $0.00 | $11,255.99 |
+$128.87 (+1.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | May 9, 2025 9:40am ET | $22.47 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 12, 2025 9:30am ET | $22.76 | 0 | $0.00 | $11,397.99 |
+$142.00 (+1.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 14, 2025 10:00am ET | $25.05 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 14, 2025 11:40am ET | $25.38 | 0 | $0.00 | $11,544.00 |
+$146.01 (+1.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 16, 2025 9:35am ET | $25.95 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 16, 2025 10:15am ET | $25.42 | 0 | $0.00 | $11,306.46 |
$-237.54 (-2.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 3, 2026 9:30am ET | $25.60 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2026 10:15am ET | $25.89 | 0 | $0.00 | $11,432.67 |
+$126.21 (+1.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 6, 2026 9:35am ET | $26.35 | 433 | $11,409.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 16, 2026 10:35am ET | $26.58 | 433 | $11,509.14 | $11,532.26 |
+$99.59 (+0.9%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 18, 2026 9:30am ET | $27.23 | 423 | $11,518.29 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 30, 2026 9:30am ET | $27.47 | 423 | $11,619.81 | $11,633.78 |
+$101.52 (+0.9%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
12d held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 2, 2026 1:50pm ET | $28.24 | 412 | $11,632.82 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 13, 2026 9:30am ET | $26.87 | 412 | $11,070.44 | $11,071.40 |
$-562.38 (-4.8%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
10.8d held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 14, 2026 3:45pm ET | $27.17 | 407 | $11,060.22 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 24, 2026 3:45pm ET | $27.09 | 407 | $11,025.71 | $11,036.89 |
$-34.51 (-0.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 28, 2026 10:30am ET | $26.45 | 417 | $11,029.65 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 8, 2026 10:30am ET | $25.90 | 417 | $10,800.26 | $10,807.50 |
$-229.39 (-2.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | May 11, 2026 11:30am ET | $25.94 | 416 | $10,790.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 21, 2026 11:30am ET | $25.81 | 416 | $10,735.84 | $10,753.21 |
$-54.29 (-0.5%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | May 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $25.88 | 415 | $10,740.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $25.97 | 415 | $10,775.48 | $10,788.49 |
+$35.28 (+0.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 9, 2026 9:50am ET | $25.55 | 422 | $10,781.26 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 22, 2026 9:30am ET | $25.21 | 422 | $10,636.55 | $10,643.79 |
$-144.70 (-1.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
13d held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 23, 2026 9:45am ET | $24.83 | 428 | $10,625.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $23.86 | 428 | $10,212.04 | $10,230.73 |
$-413.06 (-3.9%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
13d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 7, 2026 1:55pm ET | $23.96 | 426 | $10,206.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 16, 2026 9:50am ET | $25.23 | 426 | $10,746.96 | $10,770.73 |
+$540.00 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
8.8d held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 17, 2026 11:40am ET | $25.20 | 427 | $10,760.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 27, 2026 11:40am ET | $24.83 | 427 | $10,600.28 | $10,610.60 |
$-160.13 (-1.5%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 7, 2026 1:55pm ET | $23.96 | 426 | $10,206.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 30, 2026 9:35am ET | $24.75 | 426 | $10,544.10 | $10,947.74 |
+$337.14 (+3.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
22.8d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 31, 2026 9:35am ET | $24.73 | 442 | $10,930.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $25.98 | 442 | $11,483.16 | $11,500.24 |
+$552.50 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
6d held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 12, 2026 9:30am ET | $26.38 | 435 | $11,475.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 19, 2026 9:30am ET | $27.74 | 435 | $12,066.90 | $12,091.84 |
+$591.60 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
7d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $28.00 | 431 | $12,068.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 31, 2026 9:30am ET | $27.68 | 431 | $11,932.23 | $11,956.07 |
$-135.77 (-1.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
11d held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $28.00 | 431 | $12,068.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 3, 2026 11:40am ET | $28.68 | 431 | $12,363.23 | $12,251.30 |
+$295.23 (+2.4%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
14.1d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 4, 2026 1:05pm ET | $28.51 | 429 | $12,230.79 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 14, 2026 1:05pm ET | $27.73 | 429 | $11,894.03 | $11,914.54 |
$-336.76 (-2.8%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$11,914.54
Net Profit/Loss:
+$1,914.54
Total Return:
+19.15%