Compendium › Squeeze Monday › NVDA
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
NVDA
Alpaca Tradeable

Squeeze Monday's Analysis

to 2026-09-24 19:55:00+00 • 12 trades executed

+19.51%
2 Years Return
$11,327.40
Current Value
88%
Win Rate
$9,478.34
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 04:06:58

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 2.8
Storm
⛈️ 1 storm day in 7d
RSI(14)
33.4 neutral
20d Trend
-9.7%
5d Trend
-7.1%
EMA20 Dist
-5.9%
ATR%
3.2%
Range Pos
3%
Bounce Ratio
0.7×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored Mar 6, 2026

0
Lifetime
Confidence: 0%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
84.0/35
Total Return
45.6/25
Win Rate
90.5/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
69.6/10
Raw Quality 0.0/100
× Confidence 0.00 = 0.0

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (0%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles Used
77,606
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Date Range
2024-09-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
535 days
Data Gaps
None (21 market holidays)

Market Closed (21 days)

2024-11-28 — Thanksgiving, 2024-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2025-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2025-01-09 — National Day of Mourning (Carter), 2025-01-20 — MLK Jr. Day, 2025-02-17 — Presidents' Day, 2025-04-18 — Good Friday, 2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed) ... and 1 more
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary

Starting Capital
$9,478.34
Current Value
$11,327.40
Total P&L
$1,849.06
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.45

Trade Statistics

Total Trades
8
Winners / Losers
7 / 1
Best Trade
+12.87%
Worst Trade
-7.73%
Avg Trade Return
+2.39%
Avg Hold Time
4.7d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$160,994.62
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$1,849.06
Net P&L (after fees)
$1,849.06
Gross Return
+19.51%
Net Return (after fees)
+19.51%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 NVDA Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 535 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Complete Trade History

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Squeeze Monday had $9,478.34 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Mar 18, 2025 9:30am ET $117.53 81 $9,478.34 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 21, 2025 3:55pm ET $117.64 81 $9,486.97 $9,486.97 +$8.63
(+0.1%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Apr 3, 2025 9:30am ET $104.81 91 $9,486.97 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 8, 2025 3:55pm ET $96.71 91 $8,753.79 $8,753.79 $-733.18
(-7.7%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Apr 9, 2025 11:40am ET $98.08 89 $8,753.79 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 14, 2025 3:55pm ET $110.70 89 $9,880.14 $9,880.14 +$1,126.35
(+12.9%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Apr 17, 2025 10:20am ET $101.01 98 $9,880.14 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 23, 2025 3:55pm ET $102.54 98 $10,029.14 $10,029.14 +$149.00
(+1.5%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
5 🟢 BUY Apr 28, 2025 9:30am ET $108.67 92 $10,029.14 — — —
🔴 SELL May 1, 2025 3:55pm ET $111.53 92 $10,292.97 $10,292.97 +$263.83
(+2.6%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
6 🟢 BUY May 6, 2025 9:30am ET $111.49 92 $10,292.97 — — —
🔴 SELL May 9, 2025 3:55pm ET $116.61 92 $10,765.66 $10,765.66 +$472.69
(+4.6%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
7 🟢 BUY May 21, 2025 1:20pm ET $134.00 80 $10,765.66 — — —
🔴 SELL May 27, 2025 3:55pm ET $135.49 80 $10,885.77 $10,885.77 +$120.11
(+1.1%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
8 🟢 BUY May 30, 2025 9:50am ET $136.31 80 $10,885.77 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 4, 2025 3:55pm ET $141.84 80 $11,327.40 $11,327.40 +$441.63
(+4.1%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $11,327.40
Net Profit/Loss: +$1,327.40
Total Return: +13.27%
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