Compendium › Squeeze Monday › LLY
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
LLY
Alpaca Tradeable

Squeeze Monday's Analysis

to 2026-09-24 19:55:00+00 • 23 trades executed

-0.45%
2 Years Return
$12,156.71
Current Value
33%
Win Rate
$12,212.03
Period Start
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PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-24 22:46:03

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
47.7 neutral
20d Trend
-3.6%
5d Trend
+0.1%
EMA20 Dist
-1.1%
ATR%
3.7%
Range Pos
72%
Bounce Ratio
1.5×
Green/Red 10d
5/5

Strategy Score Scored Jul 8, 2026

19
Lifetime
Confidence: 50%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
15.1/35
Total Return
11.2/25
Win Rate
1.3/15
Profit Factor
2.3/15
Consistency
7.0/10
Raw Quality 36.9/100
× Confidence 0.50 = 18.5

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (50%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles Used
50,209
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Date Range
2024-09-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
530 days
Data Gaps
None (21 market holidays)

Market Closed (21 days)

2024-11-28 — Thanksgiving, 2024-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2025-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2025-01-09 — National Day of Mourning (Carter), 2025-01-20 — MLK Jr. Day, 2025-02-17 — Presidents' Day, 2025-04-18 — Good Friday, 2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed) ... and 1 more
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary

Starting Capital
$12,212.03
Current Value
$12,156.71
Total P&L
$-55.32
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.01

Trade Statistics

Total Trades
9
Winners / Losers
3 / 6
Best Trade
+13.12%
Worst Trade
-8.73%
Avg Trade Return
+0.10%
Avg Hold Time
4.4d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$220,066.71
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-55.32
Net P&L (after fees)
$-55.32
Gross Return
-0.45%
Net Return (after fees)
-0.45%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 LLY Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 530 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Complete Trade History

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Squeeze Monday had $12,212.03 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Mar 31, 2025 9:30am ET $797.65 15 $12,212.03 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 3, 2025 3:55pm ET $788.94 15 $12,078.76 $12,078.76 $-133.27
(-1.1%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Apr 8, 2025 10:55am ET $747.33 16 $12,078.76 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 11, 2025 3:55pm ET $731.93 16 $11,829.88 $11,829.88 $-248.88
(-2.1%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Apr 14, 2025 11:45am ET $742.09 16 $11,829.88 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 17, 2025 3:55pm ET $839.47 16 $13,382.33 $13,382.33 +$1,552.45
(+13.1%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Apr 17, 2025 3:55pm ET $839.47 16 $13,382.33 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 23, 2025 3:55pm ET $828.40 16 $13,205.86 $13,205.86 $-176.47
(-1.3%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
5 🟢 BUY Apr 28, 2025 9:30am ET $870.05 15 $13,205.86 — — —
🔴 SELL May 1, 2025 3:55pm ET $794.07 15 $12,052.61 $12,052.61 $-1,153.25
(-8.7%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
6 🟢 BUY May 1, 2025 3:55pm ET $794.07 15 $12,052.61 — — —
🔴 SELL May 6, 2025 3:55pm ET $775.17 15 $11,765.74 $11,765.74 $-286.87
(-2.4%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
7 🟢 BUY May 21, 2025 10:00am ET $740.37 16 $11,765.74 — — —
🔴 SELL May 27, 2025 3:55pm ET $725.12 16 $11,523.39 $11,523.39 $-242.35
(-2.1%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
8 🟢 BUY Jun 2, 2025 9:45am ET $734.91 16 $11,523.39 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 5, 2025 3:55pm ET $765.97 16 $12,010.41 $12,010.41 +$487.02
(+4.2%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
9 🟢 BUY Apr 2, 2026 9:30am ET $940.00 13 $12,010.41 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 8, 2026 3:55pm ET $951.45 13 $12,156.71 $12,156.71 +$146.30
(+1.2%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $12,156.71
Net Profit/Loss: +$2,156.71
Total Return: +21.57%
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