TQQQ Surge PRO's Analysis
Last Year: 2025-09-24 to present • 53 trades in period
+7.02%
Last Year Return
$19,016.15
Current Value
38%
Win Rate
$17,768.91
Period Start
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
31.4 neutral
20d Trend
-11.9%
5d Trend
-13.2%
EMA20 Dist
-11.3%
ATR%
5.7%
Range Pos
9%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
48
Lifetime
Confidence: 100%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
21.0/35
Total Return
16.3/25
Win Rate
2.5/15
Profit Factor
2.2/15
Consistency
5.8/10
Raw Quality
47.8/100
× Confidence 1.00
= 47.6
30-Day Momentum
17
+6.3%
30d Return
33%
Win Rate
3
Trades
1.5×
Profit Factor
Quality: 27.6
Conf: 0.61×
Declining (-31 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (100%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last Year)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
30,082
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-09-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
266 days
Data Gaps
None (10 market holidays)
Market Closed (10 days)
2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last Year)
Period Start Capital
$17,768.91
Current Value
$19,016.15
Period P&L
$1,247.24
Max Drawdown
-15.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.05
Trade Statistics (Last Year)
Trades in Period
53
Winners / Losers
20 /
33
Best Trade
+12.16%
Worst Trade
-5.50%
Avg Trade Return
+0.23%
Avg Hold Time
2.6d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Year)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$686,526.07
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$1,247.24
Net P&L (after fees)
$1,247.24
Gross Return
+7.02%
Net Return (after fees)
+7.02%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 TQQQ Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 266 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last Year - 53 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Surge PRO had $17,768.91 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 25, 2025 1:00pm ET | $49.96 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 25, 2025 1:45pm ET | $49.45 | 0 | $0.00 | $17,590.24 |
$-178.67 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 30, 2025 3:25pm ET | $51.46 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 1, 2025 3:55pm ET | $52.45 | 0 | $0.00 | $17,925.99 |
+$335.75 (+1.9%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 6, 2025 2:30pm ET | $53.91 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 7, 2025 11:00am ET | $53.27 | 0 | $0.00 | $17,714.34 |
$-211.65 (-1.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 8, 2025 1:00pm ET | $53.95 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 9, 2025 1:30pm ET | $53.47 | 0 | $0.00 | $17,557.75 |
$-156.59 (-0.9%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 13, 2025 1:00pm ET | $51.78 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 14, 2025 10:00am ET | $49.65 | 0 | $0.00 | $16,837.37 |
$-720.38 (-4.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 20, 2025 1:00pm ET | $54.15 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 22, 2025 10:10am ET | $53.38 | 0 | $0.00 | $16,597.12 |
$-240.25 (-1.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 23, 2025 1:00pm ET | $53.52 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 24, 2025 10:00am ET | $55.29 | 0 | $0.00 | $17,147.03 |
+$549.91 (+3.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 24, 2025 1:35pm ET | $55.57 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 27, 2025 10:00am ET | $57.59 | 0 | $0.00 | $17,767.65 |
+$620.62 (+3.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 27, 2025 1:00pm ET | $57.90 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 28, 2025 1:20pm ET | $59.38 | 0 | $0.00 | $18,218.91 |
+$451.26 (+2.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 28, 2025 1:25pm ET | $59.33 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 29, 2025 1:55pm ET | $60.19 | 0 | $0.00 | $18,482.25 |
+$263.34 (+1.4%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 5, 2025 1:00pm ET | $57.11 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 6, 2025 10:00am ET | $54.49 | 0 | $0.00 | $17,635.99 |
$-846.26 (-4.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 7, 2025 3:55pm ET | $52.87 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 10, 2025 10:00am ET | $55.87 | 0 | $0.00 | $18,634.19 |
+$998.20 (+5.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 10, 2025 2:25pm ET | $56.17 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 11, 2025 10:00am ET | $55.58 | 0 | $0.00 | $18,437.24 |
$-196.95 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 11, 2025 1:50pm ET | $56.07 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 12, 2025 10:15am ET | $55.50 | 0 | $0.00 | $18,250.18 |
$-187.06 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 14, 2025 1:00pm ET | $52.60 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 17, 2025 11:05am ET | $51.76 | 0 | $0.00 | $17,961.30 |
$-288.88 (-1.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 25, 2025 1:00pm ET | $51.55 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 26, 2025 10:05am ET | $52.85 | 0 | $0.00 | $18,413.35 |
+$452.05 (+2.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 26, 2025 1:00pm ET | $53.71 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 1, 2025 10:25am ET | $53.55 | 0 | $0.00 | $18,360.37 |
$-52.98 (-0.3%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 1, 2025 1:00pm ET | $54.46 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 1, 2025 2:45pm ET | $53.90 | 0 | $0.00 | $18,169.97 |
$-190.40 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 3, 2025 1:00pm ET | $55.52 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 4, 2025 11:00am ET | $54.91 | 0 | $0.00 | $17,972.13 |
$-197.84 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 9, 2025 1:00pm ET | $56.13 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 10, 2025 10:00am ET | $55.52 | 0 | $0.00 | $17,776.93 |
$-195.20 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 10, 2025 2:05pm ET | $56.15 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 11, 2025 10:00am ET | $54.41 | 0 | $0.00 | $17,226.08 |
$-550.85 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 11, 2025 1:40pm ET | $55.87 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 12, 2025 10:00am ET | $54.63 | 0 | $0.00 | $16,844.16 |
$-381.92 (-2.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 16, 2025 3:35pm ET | $52.63 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 17, 2025 10:00am ET | $52.00 | 0 | $0.00 | $16,643.94 |
$-200.22 (-1.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 18, 2025 1:15pm ET | $52.15 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 18, 2025 2:00pm ET | $51.61 | 0 | $0.00 | $16,470.24 |
$-173.70 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 23, 2025 1:30pm ET | $54.80 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 26, 2025 10:55am ET | $55.54 | 0 | $0.00 | $16,691.49 |
+$221.25 (+1.4%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 6, 2026 1:45pm ET | $54.94 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 7, 2026 2:15pm ET | $55.68 | 0 | $0.00 | $16,917.22 |
+$225.73 (+1.4%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 7, 2026 2:30pm ET | $55.68 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 7, 2026 3:35pm ET | $55.09 | 0 | $0.00 | $16,740.39 |
$-176.83 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 9, 2026 1:00pm ET | $55.61 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 12, 2026 1:30pm ET | $56.11 | 0 | $0.00 | $16,890.65 |
+$150.26 (+0.9%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 12, 2026 1:35pm ET | $56.10 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 13, 2026 10:15am ET | $55.47 | 0 | $0.00 | $16,701.02 |
$-189.63 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 21, 2026 2:25pm ET | $52.47 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 22, 2026 10:40am ET | $53.82 | 0 | $0.00 | $17,128.70 |
+$427.68 (+2.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 23, 2026 1:00pm ET | $54.30 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 26, 2026 1:30pm ET | $55.58 | 0 | $0.00 | $17,533.47 |
+$404.77 (+2.4%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 26, 2026 1:35pm ET | $55.46 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 27, 2026 2:05pm ET | $56.58 | 0 | $0.00 | $17,885.84 |
+$352.37 (+2.0%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 27, 2026 2:10pm ET | $56.64 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 28, 2026 2:40pm ET | $57.04 | 0 | $0.00 | $18,011.84 |
+$126.00 (+0.7%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 2, 2026 1:00pm ET | $55.62 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 2, 2026 2:55pm ET | $55.06 | 0 | $0.00 | $17,831.93 |
$-179.91 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2026 1:00pm ET | $50.42 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 11:10am ET | $51.68 | 0 | $0.00 | $18,278.47 |
+$446.54 (+2.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 9, 2026 1:00pm ET | $51.92 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 10, 2026 1:30pm ET | $51.41 | 0 | $0.00 | $18,100.71 |
$-177.76 (-1.0%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 16, 2026 9:30am ET | $47.35 | 382 | $18,089.61 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 19, 2026 9:30am ET | $44.75 | 382 | $17,094.50 | $17,105.60 |
$-995.11 (-5.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $45.06 | 379 | $17,077.74 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $43.20 | 379 | $16,372.80 | $16,400.66 |
$-704.94 (-4.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 31, 2026 9:30am ET | $39.25 | 417 | $16,367.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 1, 2026 1:10pm ET | $43.97 | 417 | $18,335.49 | $18,368.90 |
+$1,968.24 (+12.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.2d held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $48.75 | 376 | $18,330.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 15, 2026 11:45am ET | $54.68 | 376 | $20,559.38 | $20,598.28 |
+$2,229.38 (+12.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
7.1d held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $57.87 | 355 | $20,543.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 1, 2026 9:40am ET | $64.89 | 355 | $23,035.95 | $23,090.38 |
+$2,492.10 (+12.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
14d held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | May 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $66.40 | 347 | $23,040.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 8, 2026 10:00am ET | $74.43 | 347 | $25,827.21 | $25,876.79 |
+$2,786.41 (+12.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3d held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | May 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $80.67 | 320 | $25,814.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 5, 2026 12:15pm ET | $77.43 | 320 | $24,777.25 | $24,839.64 |
$-1,037.15 (-4.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
10.1d held |
|
| 44 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 15, 2026 9:30am ET | $82.88 | 299 | $24,781.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 17, 2026 2:05pm ET | $78.71 | 299 | $23,534.29 | $23,592.81 |
$-1,246.83 (-5.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.2d held |
|
| 45 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 25, 2026 9:30am ET | $78.02 | 302 | $23,562.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 25, 2026 9:50am ET | $74.26 | 302 | $22,426.52 | $22,457.29 |
$-1,135.52 (-4.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20m held |
|
| 46 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 29, 2026 9:30am ET | $75.00 | 299 | $22,425.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 29, 2026 10:10am ET | $71.84 | 299 | $21,480.19 | $21,512.48 |
$-944.81 (-4.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
40m held |
|
| 47 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $75.15 | 286 | $21,492.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 7, 2026 10:15am ET | $71.54 | 286 | $20,460.44 | $20,480.02 |
$-1,032.46 (-4.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 48 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $74.74 | 274 | $20,478.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 16, 2026 9:40am ET | $71.49 | 274 | $19,588.26 | $19,589.52 |
$-890.50 (-4.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
7d held |
|
| 49 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $70.11 | 279 | $19,559.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 23, 2026 9:55am ET | $67.01 | 279 | $18,695.79 | $18,726.01 |
$-863.51 (-4.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
|
| 50 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 31, 2026 9:30am ET | $65.56 | 285 | $18,684.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 31, 2026 10:10am ET | $62.60 | 285 | $17,841.00 | $17,882.41 |
$-843.60 (-4.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
40m held |
|
| 51 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 4, 2026 9:30am ET | $70.34 | 254 | $17,866.87 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 3, 2026 9:30am ET | $70.09 | 254 | $17,802.86 | $17,818.40 |
$-64.01 (-0.4%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
30d held |
|
| 52 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 11, 2026 9:30am ET | $71.02 | 250 | $17,755.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 14, 2026 9:30am ET | $67.60 | 250 | $16,900.00 | $16,963.40 |
$-855.00 (-4.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
|
| 53 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $71.16 | 238 | $16,936.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 22, 2026 9:35am ET | $79.79 | 238 | $18,988.83 | $19,016.15 |
+$2,052.75 (+12.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$19,016.15
Net Profit/Loss:
+$9,016.15
Total Return:
+90.16%