Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 00:27:03

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
28.4 oversold
20d Trend
-31.1%
5d Trend
-24.1%
EMA20 Dist
-22.9%
ATR%
11.0%
Range Pos
5%
Bounce Ratio
0.4×
Green/Red 10d
4/6

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

46
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
22.3/35
Total Return
16.2/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
1.9/15
Consistency
5.9/10
Raw Quality 46.3/100
× Confidence 0.98 = 45.5

30-Day Momentum

51
+22.4%
30d Return
67%
Win Rate
3
Trades
3.1×
Profit Factor
Quality: 82.8 Conf: 0.61×
Steady (+5 vs lifetime)
Momentum meets PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,992
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
64 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$20,908.56
Current Value
$18,720.19
Period P&L
$-2,188.37
Max Drawdown
-13.7%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.08

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
12
Winners / Losers
3 / 9
Best Trade
+13.08%
Worst Trade
-6.93%
Avg Trade Return
-0.63%
Avg Hold Time
1.6d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$427,144.28
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-2,188.37
Net P&L (after fees)
$-2,188.37
Gross Return
-10.47%
Net Return (after fees)
-10.47%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 RIOT Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 64 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 12 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Surge PRO had $20,908.56 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jun 25, 2026 9:30am ET $28.36 737 $20,905.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 25, 2026 9:40am ET $26.67 737 $19,652.11 $19,655.66 $-1,252.90
(-6.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
10m held
2 🟢 BUY Jul 6, 2026 9:30am ET $22.75 863 $19,633.25 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 7, 2026 9:50am ET $21.80 863 $18,813.40 $18,835.81 $-819.85
(-4.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held
3 🟢 BUY Jul 9, 2026 9:30am ET $22.00 856 $18,832.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 10, 2026 9:50am ET $20.90 856 $17,886.12 $17,889.93 $-945.88
(-5.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held
4 🟢 BUY Jul 20, 2026 9:30am ET $19.06 938 $17,878.28 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 21, 2026 12:00pm ET $21.35 938 $20,026.30 $20,037.95 +$2,148.02
(+12.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held
5 🟢 BUY Jul 23, 2026 9:30am ET $23.94 837 $20,037.78 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 24, 2026 9:50am ET $22.83 837 $19,108.71 $19,108.88 $-929.07
(-4.6%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held
6 🟢 BUY Jul 31, 2026 9:30am ET $23.04 829 $19,100.16 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 31, 2026 9:40am ET $22.00 829 $18,238.00 $18,246.72 $-862.16
(-4.5%)
🛑 -10% Stop
10m held
7 🟢 BUY Aug 5, 2026 9:30am ET $22.40 814 $18,233.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 6, 2026 9:30am ET $21.01 814 $17,102.14 $17,115.26 $-1,131.46
(-6.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held
8 🟢 BUY Aug 7, 2026 9:30am ET $22.10 774 $17,105.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 7, 2026 9:55am ET $21.21 774 $16,416.54 $16,426.40 $-688.86
(-4.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
25m held
9 🟢 BUY Aug 11, 2026 9:30am ET $23.38 702 $16,412.76 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 11, 2026 9:35am ET $21.76 702 $15,275.52 $15,289.16 $-1,137.24
(-6.9%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held
10 🟢 BUY Aug 20, 2026 9:30am ET $19.80 772 $15,281.74 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 28, 2026 1:05pm ET $19.00 772 $14,668.00 $14,675.42 $-613.74
(-4.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
8.1d held
11 🟢 BUY Sep 3, 2026 10:15am ET $19.73 743 $14,659.39 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 8, 2026 9:45am ET $22.31 743 $16,576.33 $16,592.36 +$1,916.94
(+13.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
5d held
12 🟢 BUY Sep 17, 2026 9:30am ET $21.32 778 $16,586.96 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 18, 2026 3:50pm ET $24.06 778 $18,714.79 $18,720.19 +$2,127.83
(+12.8%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.3d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $18,720.19
Net Profit/Loss: +$8,720.19
Total Return: +87.20%
Back to Surge PRO