Compendium › Surge PRO › TQQQ
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
TQQQ
Alpaca Tradeable

Surge PRO's Analysis

Last 6 Months: 2026-03-24 to present • 16 trades in period

+13.59%
Last 6 Months Return
$19,016.15
Current Value
31%
Win Rate
$16,741.72
Period Start
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PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-24 22:48:37

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
31.4 neutral
20d Trend
-11.9%
5d Trend
-13.2%
EMA20 Dist
-11.3%
ATR%
5.7%
Range Pos
9%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
4/6

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

48
Lifetime
Confidence: 100%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
21.0/35
Total Return
16.3/25
Win Rate
2.5/15
Profit Factor
2.2/15
Consistency
5.8/10
Raw Quality 47.8/100
× Confidence 1.00 = 47.6

30-Day Momentum

17
+6.3%
30d Return
33%
Win Rate
3
Trades
1.5×
Profit Factor
Quality: 27.6 Conf: 0.61×
Declining (-31 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (100%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
9,984
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-03-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
128 days
Data Gaps
None (5 market holidays)

Market Closed (5 days)

2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)

Period Start Capital
$16,741.72
Current Value
$19,016.15
Period P&L
$2,274.43
Max Drawdown
-15.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.12

Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)

Trades in Period
16
Winners / Losers
5 / 11
Best Trade
+12.16%
Worst Trade
-5.03%
Avg Trade Return
+0.94%
Avg Hold Time
5.6d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$651,341.96
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$2,274.43
Net P&L (after fees)
$2,274.43
Gross Return
+13.59%
Net Return (after fees)
+13.59%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 TQQQ Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 128 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 6 Months - 16 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Surge PRO had $16,741.72 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Mar 23, 2026 9:30am ET $45.06 379 $17,077.74 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 26, 2026 9:30am ET $43.20 379 $16,372.80 $16,400.66 $-704.94
(-4.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
3d held
2 🟢 BUY Mar 31, 2026 9:30am ET $39.25 417 $16,367.25 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 1, 2026 1:10pm ET $43.97 417 $18,335.49 $18,368.90 +$1,968.24
(+12.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1.2d held
3 🟢 BUY Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET $48.75 376 $18,330.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 15, 2026 11:45am ET $54.68 376 $20,559.38 $20,598.28 +$2,229.38
(+12.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
7.1d held
4 🟢 BUY Apr 17, 2026 9:30am ET $57.87 355 $20,543.85 — — —
🔴 SELL May 1, 2026 9:40am ET $64.89 355 $23,035.95 $23,090.38 +$2,492.10
(+12.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
14d held
5 🟢 BUY May 5, 2026 9:30am ET $66.40 347 $23,040.80 — — —
🔴 SELL May 8, 2026 10:00am ET $74.43 347 $25,827.21 $25,876.79 +$2,786.41
(+12.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
3d held
6 🟢 BUY May 26, 2026 9:30am ET $80.67 320 $25,814.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 5, 2026 12:15pm ET $77.43 320 $24,777.25 $24,839.64 $-1,037.15
(-4.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
10.1d held
7 🟢 BUY Jun 15, 2026 9:30am ET $82.88 299 $24,781.12 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 17, 2026 2:05pm ET $78.71 299 $23,534.29 $23,592.81 $-1,246.83
(-5.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
2.2d held
8 🟢 BUY Jun 25, 2026 9:30am ET $78.02 302 $23,562.04 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 25, 2026 9:50am ET $74.26 302 $22,426.52 $22,457.29 $-1,135.52
(-4.8%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
20m held
9 🟢 BUY Jun 29, 2026 9:30am ET $75.00 299 $22,425.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 29, 2026 10:10am ET $71.84 299 $21,480.19 $21,512.48 $-944.81
(-4.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
40m held
10 🟢 BUY Jul 6, 2026 9:30am ET $75.15 286 $21,492.90 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 7, 2026 10:15am ET $71.54 286 $20,460.44 $20,480.02 $-1,032.46
(-4.8%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1d held
11 🟢 BUY Jul 9, 2026 9:30am ET $74.74 274 $20,478.76 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 16, 2026 9:40am ET $71.49 274 $19,588.26 $19,589.52 $-890.50
(-4.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
7d held
12 🟢 BUY Jul 20, 2026 9:30am ET $70.11 279 $19,559.30 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 23, 2026 9:55am ET $67.01 279 $18,695.79 $18,726.01 $-863.51
(-4.4%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
3d held
13 🟢 BUY Jul 31, 2026 9:30am ET $65.56 285 $18,684.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 31, 2026 10:10am ET $62.60 285 $17,841.00 $17,882.41 $-843.60
(-4.5%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
40m held
14 🟢 BUY Aug 4, 2026 9:30am ET $70.34 254 $17,866.87 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 3, 2026 9:30am ET $70.09 254 $17,802.86 $17,818.40 $-64.01
(-0.4%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
30d held
15 🟢 BUY Sep 11, 2026 9:30am ET $71.02 250 $17,755.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 14, 2026 9:30am ET $67.60 250 $16,900.00 $16,963.40 $-855.00
(-4.8%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
3d held
16 🟢 BUY Sep 17, 2026 9:30am ET $71.16 238 $16,936.08 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 22, 2026 9:35am ET $79.79 238 $18,988.83 $19,016.15 +$2,052.75
(+12.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $19,016.15
Net Profit/Loss: +$9,016.15
Total Return: +90.16%
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