Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-24 22:21:11

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
15.8 oversold
20d Trend
-34.3%
5d Trend
-19.1%
EMA20 Dist
-19.9%
ATR%
6.9%
Range Pos
0%
Bounce Ratio
0.2×
Green/Red 10d
1/9

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

27
Lifetime
Confidence: 96%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
7.4/35
Total Return
13.9/25
Win Rate
0.8/15
Profit Factor
1.6/15
Consistency
4.7/10
Raw Quality 28.4/100
× Confidence 0.96 = 27.3

30-Day Momentum

0
-12.4%
30d Return
0%
Win Rate
3
Trades
0.6×
Profit Factor
Quality: 0.0 Conf: 0.61×
Declining (-27 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (96%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Year to Date)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
17,075
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
189 days
Data Gaps
None (8 market holidays)

Market Closed (8 days)

2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Year to Date)

Period Start Capital
$16,757.34
Current Value
$14,609.21
Period P&L
$-2,148.13
Max Drawdown
-21.9%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.09

Trade Statistics (Year to Date)

Trades in Period
21
Winners / Losers
5 / 16
Best Trade
+12.58%
Worst Trade
-4.62%
Avg Trade Return
-0.50%
Avg Hold Time
2d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$480,341.15
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-2,148.13
Net P&L (after fees)
$-2,148.13
Gross Return
-12.82%
Net Return (after fees)
-12.82%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 ORCL Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 189 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Year to Date - 21 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Surge PRO had $16,757.34 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jan 6, 2026 2:20pm ET $194.36 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 7, 2026 2:50pm ET $194.22 0 $0.00 $16,745.02 $-12.32
(-0.1%)
END_OF_DAY
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Jan 9, 2026 1:00pm ET $197.08 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 12, 2026 11:00am ET $203.22 0 $0.00 $17,260.78 +$515.76
(+3.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Jan 12, 2026 1:00pm ET $204.08 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 13, 2026 10:30am ET $201.96 0 $0.00 $17,082.70 $-178.08
(-1.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Jan 16, 2026 1:10pm ET $190.95 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 20, 2026 10:00am ET $183.58 0 $0.00 $16,426.77 $-655.93
(-3.9%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
5 🟢 BUY Jan 23, 2026 1:00pm ET $177.89 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 23, 2026 3:05pm ET $175.99 0 $0.00 $16,251.51 $-175.26
(-1.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
6 🟢 BUY Feb 9, 2026 1:00pm ET $157.50 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 10, 2026 10:00am ET $161.53 0 $0.00 $16,666.60 +$415.09
(+2.6%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
7 🟢 BUY Feb 10, 2026 1:00pm ET $162.50 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 10, 2026 2:40pm ET $160.83 0 $0.00 $16,496.27 $-170.33
(-1.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
8 🟢 BUY Mar 11, 2026 9:30am ET $166.00 99 $16,434.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 12, 2026 3:40pm ET $159.23 99 $15,763.28 $15,825.55 $-670.72
(-4.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.3d held
9 🟢 BUY Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET $151.00 104 $15,704.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 8, 2026 10:45am ET $144.91 104 $15,070.64 $15,192.19 $-633.36
(-4.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.3h held
10 🟢 BUY Apr 14, 2026 9:30am ET $166.59 91 $15,159.69 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 22, 2026 10:10am ET $187.07 91 $17,023.82 $17,056.33 +$1,864.14
(+12.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
8d held
11 🟢 BUY Apr 24, 2026 9:30am ET $179.95 94 $16,915.30 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 24, 2026 10:25am ET $172.48 94 $16,213.12 $16,354.15 $-702.18
(-4.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
55m held
12 🟢 BUY May 1, 2026 9:30am ET $166.35 98 $16,302.30 — — —
🔴 SELL May 6, 2026 9:35am ET $186.99 98 $18,325.02 $18,376.87 +$2,022.72
(+12.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
5d held
13 🟢 BUY May 29, 2026 9:30am ET $208.33 88 $18,333.04 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 1, 2026 10:30am ET $234.54 88 $20,639.52 $20,683.35 +$2,306.48
(+12.6%)
🎯 +5% Target
3d held
14 🟢 BUY Jun 8, 2026 9:30am ET $218.20 94 $20,510.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 9, 2026 10:45am ET $209.23 94 $19,667.63 $19,840.18 $-843.17
(-4.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held
15 🟢 BUY Jun 29, 2026 9:30am ET $153.22 129 $19,765.38 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 29, 2026 10:05am ET $146.50 129 $18,898.58 $18,973.38 $-866.80
(-4.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
35m held
16 🟢 BUY Jul 6, 2026 9:30am ET $143.90 131 $18,850.90 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 7, 2026 10:40am ET $137.85 131 $18,058.35 $18,180.83 $-792.55
(-4.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held
17 🟢 BUY Jul 24, 2026 9:30am ET $122.20 148 $18,085.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 24, 2026 9:50am ET $117.00 148 $17,316.00 $17,411.23 $-769.60
(-4.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
20m held
18 🟢 BUY Aug 12, 2026 9:30am ET $153.13 113 $17,303.69 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 17, 2026 9:45am ET $146.59 113 $16,564.67 $16,672.21 $-739.02
(-4.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5d held
19 🟢 BUY Aug 26, 2026 9:30am ET $148.10 112 $16,587.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 1, 2026 11:10am ET $142.12 112 $15,917.44 $16,002.45 $-669.76
(-4.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
6.1d held
20 🟢 BUY Sep 8, 2026 9:30am ET $167.75 95 $15,936.25 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 9, 2026 10:20am ET $160.49 95 $15,247.02 $15,313.22 $-689.23
(-4.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held
21 🟢 BUY Sep 11, 2026 9:30am ET $163.72 93 $15,225.96 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 11, 2026 9:35am ET $156.15 93 $14,521.95 $14,609.21 $-704.01
(-4.6%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $14,609.21
Net Profit/Loss: +$4,609.21
Total Return: +46.09%
Back to Surge PRO