RIOT Surge PRO's Analysis
Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 32 trades in period
-3.81%
Year to Date Return
$18,720.19
Current Value
31%
Win Rate
$19,462.03
Period Start
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
28.4 oversold
20d Trend
-31.1%
5d Trend
-24.1%
EMA20 Dist
-22.9%
ATR%
11.0%
Range Pos
5%
Bounce Ratio
0.4×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
46
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
22.3/35
Total Return
16.2/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
1.9/15
Consistency
5.9/10
Raw Quality
46.3/100
× Confidence 0.98
= 45.5
30-Day Momentum
51
+22.4%
30d Return
67%
Win Rate
3
Trades
3.1×
Profit Factor
Quality: 82.8
Conf: 0.61×
Steady (+5 vs lifetime)
Momentum meets PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Year to Date)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
16,492
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
189 days
Data Gaps
None (8 market holidays)
Market Closed (8 days)
2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Year to Date)
Period Start Capital
$19,462.03
Current Value
$18,720.19
Period P&L
$-741.84
Max Drawdown
-13.7%
Sharpe Ratio
0.01
Trade Statistics (Year to Date)
Trades in Period
32
Winners / Losers
10 /
22
Best Trade
+21.47%
Worst Trade
-6.93%
Avg Trade Return
+0.10%
Avg Hold Time
1.6d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$762,066.38
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-741.84
Net P&L (after fees)
$-741.84
Gross Return
-3.81%
Net Return (after fees)
-3.81%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 RIOT Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 189 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Year to Date - 32 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Surge PRO had $19,462.03 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 2, 2026 1:00pm ET | $14.08 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 5, 2026 10:00am ET | $14.66 | 0 | $0.00 | $20,270.50 |
+$808.47 (+4.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 5, 2026 3:25pm ET | $14.93 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 5, 2026 3:50pm ET | $14.78 | 0 | $0.00 | $20,066.95 |
$-203.55 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 7, 2026 3:45pm ET | $15.25 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 8, 2026 10:00am ET | $14.91 | 0 | $0.00 | $19,626.09 |
$-440.86 (-2.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 9, 2026 1:35pm ET | $15.66 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 9, 2026 2:00pm ET | $15.45 | 0 | $0.00 | $19,358.70 |
$-267.39 (-1.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 12, 2026 1:15pm ET | $15.67 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 12, 2026 2:35pm ET | $16.06 | 0 | $0.00 | $19,847.27 |
+$488.57 (+2.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 14, 2026 1:00pm ET | $17.42 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 14, 2026 2:45pm ET | $17.86 | 0 | $0.00 | $20,348.43 |
+$501.16 (+2.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 16, 2026 1:00pm ET | $18.82 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 16, 2026 2:15pm ET | $18.63 | 0 | $0.00 | $20,143.04 |
$-205.39 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 23, 2026 1:00pm ET | $17.95 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 23, 2026 3:00pm ET | $17.66 | 0 | $0.00 | $19,817.66 |
$-325.38 (-1.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 27, 2026 1:00pm ET | $17.12 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 27, 2026 3:05pm ET | $17.57 | 0 | $0.00 | $20,338.31 |
+$520.65 (+2.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 2, 2026 2:25pm ET | $15.65 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 2, 2026 3:15pm ET | $15.48 | 0 | $0.00 | $20,123.98 |
$-214.33 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2026 1:00pm ET | $14.18 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 10:35am ET | $14.56 | 0 | $0.00 | $20,670.29 |
+$546.31 (+2.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 9, 2026 1:00pm ET | $14.95 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 1:20pm ET | $14.78 | 0 | $0.00 | $20,435.21 |
$-235.08 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 13, 2026 9:30am ET | $15.02 | 1,360 | $20,427.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 13, 2026 1:40pm ET | $14.33 | 1,360 | $19,488.80 | $19,496.81 |
$-938.40 (-4.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.2h held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 9:30am ET | $12.68 | 1,537 | $19,489.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $11.94 | 1,537 | $18,351.78 | $18,359.43 |
$-1,137.38 (-5.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $15.49 | 1,185 | $18,355.65 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 13, 2026 3:00pm ET | $17.35 | 1,185 | $20,565.67 | $20,569.45 |
+$2,210.02 (+12.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5.2d held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $17.53 | 1,173 | $20,562.69 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 28, 2026 10:40am ET | $16.78 | 1,173 | $19,688.80 | $19,695.56 |
$-873.89 (-4.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
11d held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | May 1, 2026 9:30am ET | $18.58 | 1,060 | $19,694.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $22.57 | 1,060 | $23,924.20 | $23,924.96 |
+$4,229.40 (+21.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5d held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 3, 2026 9:30am ET | $28.50 | 839 | $23,911.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 3, 2026 12:35pm ET | $27.34 | 839 | $22,938.26 | $22,951.72 |
$-973.24 (-4.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.1h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $25.26 | 908 | $22,936.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 9, 2026 12:20pm ET | $24.06 | 908 | $21,846.48 | $21,862.12 |
$-1,089.60 (-4.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 15, 2026 9:30am ET | $28.41 | 769 | $21,847.29 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 17, 2026 10:00am ET | $27.17 | 769 | $20,893.73 | $20,908.56 |
$-953.56 (-4.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 25, 2026 9:30am ET | $28.36 | 737 | $20,905.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 25, 2026 9:40am ET | $26.67 | 737 | $19,652.11 | $19,655.66 |
$-1,252.90 (-6.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
10m held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $22.75 | 863 | $19,633.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 7, 2026 9:50am ET | $21.80 | 863 | $18,813.40 | $18,835.81 |
$-819.85 (-4.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $22.00 | 856 | $18,832.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 10, 2026 9:50am ET | $20.90 | 856 | $17,886.12 | $17,889.93 |
$-945.88 (-5.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $19.06 | 938 | $17,878.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 21, 2026 12:00pm ET | $21.35 | 938 | $20,026.30 | $20,037.95 |
+$2,148.02 (+12.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $23.94 | 837 | $20,037.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 24, 2026 9:50am ET | $22.83 | 837 | $19,108.71 | $19,108.88 |
$-929.07 (-4.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 31, 2026 9:30am ET | $23.04 | 829 | $19,100.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 31, 2026 9:40am ET | $22.00 | 829 | $18,238.00 | $18,246.72 |
$-862.16 (-4.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
10m held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $22.40 | 814 | $18,233.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $21.01 | 814 | $17,102.14 | $17,115.26 |
$-1,131.46 (-6.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 7, 2026 9:30am ET | $22.10 | 774 | $17,105.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 7, 2026 9:55am ET | $21.21 | 774 | $16,416.54 | $16,426.40 |
$-688.86 (-4.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
25m held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 11, 2026 9:30am ET | $23.38 | 702 | $16,412.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 11, 2026 9:35am ET | $21.76 | 702 | $15,275.52 | $15,289.16 |
$-1,137.24 (-6.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $19.80 | 772 | $15,281.74 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 28, 2026 1:05pm ET | $19.00 | 772 | $14,668.00 | $14,675.42 |
$-613.74 (-4.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
8.1d held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 3, 2026 10:15am ET | $19.73 | 743 | $14,659.39 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 8, 2026 9:45am ET | $22.31 | 743 | $16,576.33 | $16,592.36 |
+$1,916.94 (+13.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5d held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $21.32 | 778 | $16,586.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 18, 2026 3:50pm ET | $24.06 | 778 | $18,714.79 | $18,720.19 |
+$2,127.83 (+12.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.3d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$18,720.19
Net Profit/Loss:
+$8,720.19
Total Return:
+87.20%