Compendium › Lucky Strike › ARKK
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
ARKK
Alpaca Tradeable

Lucky Strike's Analysis

Last Year: 2025-09-24 to present • 18 trades in period

-23.88%
Last Year Return
$10,759.32
Current Value
28%
Win Rate
$14,134.82
Period Start
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PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-24 22:42:58

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
19.1 oversold
20d Trend
-20.9%
5d Trend
-12.4%
EMA20 Dist
-13.6%
ATR%
4.1%
Range Pos
3%
Bounce Ratio
0.5×
Green/Red 10d
2/8

Strategy Score Scored Jun 27, 2026

12
Lifetime
Confidence: 68%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
5.3/35
Total Return
7.8/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.3/15
Consistency
4.6/10
Raw Quality 18.0/100
× Confidence 0.68 = 12.2

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (68%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Year)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
24,106
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-09-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
265 days
Data Gaps
None (10 market holidays)

Market Closed (10 days)

2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Year)

Period Start Capital
$14,134.82
Current Value
$10,759.32
Period P&L
$-3,375.49
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.16

Trade Statistics (Last Year)

Trades in Period
18
Winners / Losers
5 / 13
Best Trade
+9.33%
Worst Trade
-6.37%
Avg Trade Return
-0.72%
Avg Hold Time
7.7d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Year)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$476,507.53
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-3,375.49
Net P&L (after fees)
$-3,375.49
Gross Return
-23.88%
Net Return (after fees)
-23.88%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 ARKK Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 265 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Year - 18 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Lucky Strike had $14,134.82 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Sep 4, 2025 10:00am ET $74.06 168 $12,442.08 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 25, 2025 9:30am ET $80.97 168 $13,602.96 $13,639.20 +$1,160.88
(+9.3%) 		TRAIL_STOP
21d held
2 🟢 BUY Sep 26, 2025 10:45am ET $81.61 167 $13,628.87 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 10, 2025 11:00am ET $89.22 167 $14,899.74 $14,910.07 +$1,270.87
(+9.3%) 		TRAIL_STOP
14d held
3 🟢 BUY Oct 14, 2025 9:30am ET $84.83 175 $14,845.25 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 16, 2025 2:15pm ET $86.67 175 $15,167.25 $15,232.07 +$322.00
(+2.2%) 		TRAIL_STOP
2.2d held
4 🟢 BUY Oct 21, 2025 9:30am ET $89.11 170 $15,148.87 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 22, 2025 10:20am ET $86.46 170 $14,697.35 $14,780.55 $-451.52
(-3.0%) 		TRAIL_STOP
1d held
5 🟢 BUY Oct 28, 2025 9:30am ET $89.72 164 $14,714.08 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 30, 2025 11:45am ET $86.98 164 $14,264.72 $14,331.19 $-449.36
(-3.1%) 		TRAIL_STOP
2.1d held
6 🟢 BUY Nov 4, 2025 9:30am ET $84.66 169 $14,307.54 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 5, 2025 9:30am ET $83.24 169 $14,067.56 $14,091.21 $-239.98
(-1.7%) 		TRAIL_STOP
1d held
7 🟢 BUY Nov 6, 2025 9:30am ET $84.20 167 $14,061.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 7, 2025 9:30am ET $78.84 167 $13,166.28 $13,196.09 $-895.12
(-6.4%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1d held
8 🟢 BUY Nov 10, 2025 10:50am ET $82.44 160 $13,190.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 13, 2025 9:30am ET $79.86 160 $12,777.60 $12,783.29 $-412.80
(-3.1%) 		TRAIL_STOP
2.9d held
9 🟢 BUY Nov 14, 2025 9:30am ET $74.83 170 $12,721.10 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 17, 2025 2:00pm ET $75.29 170 $12,799.30 $12,861.49 +$78.20
(+0.6%) 		TRAIL_STOP
3.2d held
10 🟢 BUY Nov 19, 2025 9:30am ET $74.65 172 $12,839.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 20, 2025 11:40am ET $74.13 172 $12,750.36 $12,772.05 $-89.44
(-0.7%) 		TRAIL_STOP
1.1d held
11 🟢 BUY Nov 25, 2025 9:40am ET $75.23 169 $12,713.87 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 12, 2025 10:55am ET $80.68 169 $13,634.92 $13,693.10 +$921.05
(+7.2%) 		TRAIL_STOP
17.1d held
12 🟢 BUY Dec 17, 2025 10:40am ET $80.36 170 $13,661.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 26, 2025 10:10am ET $79.14 170 $13,453.80 $13,485.70 $-207.40
(-1.5%) 		TRAIL_STOP
9d held
13 🟢 BUY Jan 7, 2026 10:00am ET $81.36 165 $13,424.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 20, 2026 9:30am ET $79.66 165 $13,143.08 $13,204.38 $-281.33
(-2.1%) 		TRAIL_STOP
13d held
14 🟢 BUY Jan 23, 2026 9:30am ET $81.61 161 $13,139.21 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 28, 2026 2:25pm ET $78.91 161 $12,704.51 $12,769.68 $-434.70
(-3.3%) 		TRAIL_STOP
5.2d held
15 🟢 BUY Jan 29, 2026 2:30pm ET $77.07 165 $12,716.55 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 30, 2026 3:05pm ET $74.88 165 $12,355.20 $12,408.33 $-361.35
(-2.8%) 		TRAIL_STOP
1d held
16 🟢 BUY Feb 3, 2026 12:10pm ET $73.03 169 $12,341.23 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 4, 2026 12:10pm ET $69.88 169 $11,809.72 $11,876.82 $-531.51
(-4.3%) 		TRAIL_STOP
1d held
17 🟢 BUY Feb 11, 2026 9:30am ET $71.68 165 $11,827.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 12, 2026 10:40am ET $69.08 165 $11,398.20 $11,447.82 $-429.00
(-3.6%) 		TRAIL_STOP
1d held
18 🟢 BUY Feb 13, 2026 2:25pm ET $70.31 162 $11,390.22 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 27, 2026 9:40am ET $66.06 162 $10,701.72 $10,759.32 $-688.50
(-6.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
41.8d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $10,759.32
Net Profit/Loss: +$759.32
Total Return: +7.59%
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