ARKK Lucky Strike's Analysis
Last Year: 2025-05-06 to present • 31 trades in period
-5.55%
Last Year Return
$10,759.32
Current Value
32%
Win Rate
$11,390.98
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
19.1 oversold
20d Trend
-20.9%
5d Trend
-12.4%
EMA20 Dist
-13.6%
ATR%
4.1%
Range Pos
3%
Bounce Ratio
0.5×
Green/Red 10d
2/8
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.
Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026
15
Lifetime
Confidence: 84%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
5.3/35
Total Return
7.8/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.3/15
Consistency
4.6/10
Raw Quality
18.0/100
× Confidence 0.84
= 15.1
30-Day Momentum
Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (84%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last Year)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
29,498
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-05-06 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
265 days
Data Gaps
None (10 market holidays)
Market Closed (10 days)
2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last Year)
Period Start Capital
$11,390.98
Current Value
$10,759.32
Period P&L
$-631.65
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.01
Trade Statistics (Last Year)
Trades in Period
31
Winners / Losers
10 /
21
Best Trade
+15.18%
Worst Trade
-6.37%
Avg Trade Return
-0.06%
Avg Hold Time
6.9d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Year)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$813,804.50
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-631.65
Net P&L (after fees)
$-631.65
Gross Return
-5.55%
Net Return (after fees)
-5.55%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 ARKK Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 265 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last Year - 31 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Lucky Strike had $11,390.98 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | May 7, 2025 2:05pm ET | $48.80 | 233 | $11,370.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 15, 2025 9:45am ET | $56.21 | 233 | $13,096.93 | $13,117.49 |
+$1,726.53 (+15.2%) |
TRAIL_STOP
7.8d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | May 19, 2025 9:30am ET | $56.79 | 230 | $13,061.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 21, 2025 3:05pm ET | $55.64 | 230 | $12,797.20 | $12,852.99 |
$-264.50 (-2.0%) |
TRAIL_STOP
2.2d held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | May 23, 2025 9:30am ET | $55.74 | 230 | $12,820.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 30, 2025 9:35am ET | $55.99 | 230 | $12,877.70 | $12,910.49 |
+$57.50 (+0.4%) |
TRAIL_STOP
7d held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 3, 2025 2:00pm ET | $57.99 | 222 | $12,873.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 5, 2025 3:10pm ET | $56.33 | 222 | $12,505.26 | $12,541.97 |
$-368.52 (-2.9%) |
TRAIL_STOP
2d held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 10, 2025 11:30am ET | $62.15 | 201 | $12,492.15 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 12, 2025 3:30pm ET | $61.98 | 201 | $12,457.98 | $12,507.80 |
$-34.17 (-0.3%) |
TRAIL_STOP
2.2d held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 17, 2025 1:45pm ET | $63.80 | 196 | $12,503.86 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 23, 2025 12:30pm ET | $67.07 | 196 | $13,145.72 | $13,149.67 |
+$641.86 (+5.1%) |
TRAIL_STOP
5.9d held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 27, 2025 1:45pm ET | $69.76 | 188 | $13,113.94 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 1, 2025 11:05am ET | $68.40 | 188 | $12,859.20 | $12,894.93 |
$-254.74 (-1.9%) |
TRAIL_STOP
3.9d held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 7, 2025 9:30am ET | $69.79 | 184 | $12,841.51 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 22, 2025 9:45am ET | $75.66 | 184 | $13,921.44 | $13,974.86 |
+$1,079.93 (+8.4%) |
TRAIL_STOP
15d held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 24, 2025 9:30am ET | $76.46 | 182 | $13,915.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 29, 2025 11:25am ET | $74.68 | 182 | $13,591.76 | $13,650.90 |
$-323.96 (-2.3%) |
TRAIL_STOP
5.1d held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 30, 2025 2:55pm ET | $75.02 | 181 | $13,578.17 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 1, 2025 9:30am ET | $71.79 | 181 | $12,993.99 | $13,066.72 |
$-584.18 (-4.3%) |
TRAIL_STOP
1.8d held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 5, 2025 9:30am ET | $72.72 | 179 | $13,016.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 18, 2025 9:55am ET | $75.94 | 179 | $13,592.37 | $13,642.21 |
+$575.49 (+4.4%) |
TRAIL_STOP
13d held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 19, 2025 10:25am ET | $75.64 | 180 | $13,615.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 20, 2025 10:25am ET | $71.62 | 180 | $12,891.62 | $12,918.62 |
$-723.58 (-5.3%) |
TRAIL_STOP
1d held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 25, 2025 9:30am ET | $75.89 | 170 | $12,901.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 2, 2025 9:30am ET | $73.30 | 170 | $12,461.00 | $12,478.32 |
$-440.30 (-3.4%) |
TRAIL_STOP
8d held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 4, 2025 10:00am ET | $74.06 | 168 | $12,442.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 25, 2025 9:30am ET | $80.97 | 168 | $13,602.96 | $13,639.20 |
+$1,160.88 (+9.3%) |
TRAIL_STOP
21d held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 26, 2025 10:45am ET | $81.61 | 167 | $13,628.87 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 10, 2025 11:00am ET | $89.22 | 167 | $14,899.74 | $14,910.07 |
+$1,270.87 (+9.3%) |
TRAIL_STOP
14d held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 14, 2025 9:30am ET | $84.83 | 175 | $14,845.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 16, 2025 2:15pm ET | $86.67 | 175 | $15,167.25 | $15,232.07 |
+$322.00 (+2.2%) |
TRAIL_STOP
2.2d held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 21, 2025 9:30am ET | $89.11 | 170 | $15,148.87 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 22, 2025 10:20am ET | $86.46 | 170 | $14,697.35 | $14,780.55 |
$-451.52 (-3.0%) |
TRAIL_STOP
1d held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 28, 2025 9:30am ET | $89.72 | 164 | $14,714.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 30, 2025 11:45am ET | $86.98 | 164 | $14,264.72 | $14,331.19 |
$-449.36 (-3.1%) |
TRAIL_STOP
2.1d held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 4, 2025 9:30am ET | $84.66 | 169 | $14,307.54 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 5, 2025 9:30am ET | $83.24 | 169 | $14,067.56 | $14,091.21 |
$-239.98 (-1.7%) |
TRAIL_STOP
1d held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 6, 2025 9:30am ET | $84.20 | 167 | $14,061.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 7, 2025 9:30am ET | $78.84 | 167 | $13,166.28 | $13,196.09 |
$-895.12 (-6.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 10, 2025 10:50am ET | $82.44 | 160 | $13,190.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 13, 2025 9:30am ET | $79.86 | 160 | $12,777.60 | $12,783.29 |
$-412.80 (-3.1%) |
TRAIL_STOP
2.9d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 14, 2025 9:30am ET | $74.83 | 170 | $12,721.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 17, 2025 2:00pm ET | $75.29 | 170 | $12,799.30 | $12,861.49 |
+$78.20 (+0.6%) |
TRAIL_STOP
3.2d held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 19, 2025 9:30am ET | $74.65 | 172 | $12,839.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 20, 2025 11:40am ET | $74.13 | 172 | $12,750.36 | $12,772.05 |
$-89.44 (-0.7%) |
TRAIL_STOP
1.1d held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 25, 2025 9:40am ET | $75.23 | 169 | $12,713.87 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 12, 2025 10:55am ET | $80.68 | 169 | $13,634.92 | $13,693.10 |
+$921.05 (+7.2%) |
TRAIL_STOP
17.1d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 17, 2025 10:40am ET | $80.36 | 170 | $13,661.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 26, 2025 10:10am ET | $79.14 | 170 | $13,453.80 | $13,485.70 |
$-207.40 (-1.5%) |
TRAIL_STOP
9d held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 7, 2026 10:00am ET | $81.36 | 165 | $13,424.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $79.66 | 165 | $13,143.08 | $13,204.38 |
$-281.33 (-2.1%) |
TRAIL_STOP
13d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $81.61 | 161 | $13,139.21 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 28, 2026 2:25pm ET | $78.91 | 161 | $12,704.51 | $12,769.68 |
$-434.70 (-3.3%) |
TRAIL_STOP
5.2d held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 29, 2026 2:30pm ET | $77.07 | 165 | $12,716.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 30, 2026 3:05pm ET | $74.88 | 165 | $12,355.20 | $12,408.33 |
$-361.35 (-2.8%) |
TRAIL_STOP
1d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 3, 2026 12:10pm ET | $73.03 | 169 | $12,341.23 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 4, 2026 12:10pm ET | $69.88 | 169 | $11,809.72 | $11,876.82 |
$-531.51 (-4.3%) |
TRAIL_STOP
1d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 11, 2026 9:30am ET | $71.68 | 165 | $11,827.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 12, 2026 10:40am ET | $69.08 | 165 | $11,398.20 | $11,447.82 |
$-429.00 (-3.6%) |
TRAIL_STOP
1d held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 13, 2026 2:25pm ET | $70.31 | 162 | $11,390.22 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2026 9:40am ET | $66.06 | 162 | $10,701.72 | $10,759.32 |
$-688.50 (-6.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
41.8d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$10,759.32
Net Profit/Loss:
+$759.32
Total Return:
+7.59%