COIN Lucky Strike's Analysis
Last Year: 2025-09-24 to present • 34 trades in period
-18.47%
Last Year Return
$5,783.91
Current Value
29%
Win Rate
$7,093.84
Period Start
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
13.1 oversold
20d Trend
-42.6%
5d Trend
-24.4%
EMA20 Dist
-25.8%
ATR%
6.8%
Range Pos
2%
Bounce Ratio
0.1×
Green/Red 10d
2/8
Strategy Score Scored Jun 5, 2026
4
Lifetime
Confidence: 72%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
5.0/10
Raw Quality
5.0/100
× Confidence 0.72
= 3.6
30-Day Momentum
Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (72%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last Year)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
29,437
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-09-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
266 days
Data Gaps
None (10 market holidays)
Market Closed (10 days)
2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last Year)
Period Start Capital
$7,093.84
Current Value
$5,783.91
Period P&L
$-1,309.98
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.05
Trade Statistics (Last Year)
Trades in Period
34
Winners / Losers
10 /
24
Best Trade
+28.35%
Worst Trade
-6.90%
Avg Trade Return
-0.40%
Avg Hold Time
3d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Year)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$460,906.45
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-1,309.98
Net P&L (after fees)
$-1,309.98
Gross Return
-18.47%
Net Return (after fees)
-18.47%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 COIN Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 266 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last Year - 34 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Lucky Strike had $7,093.84 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 23, 2025 1:25pm ET | $326.85 | 21 | $6,863.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 25, 2025 9:30am ET | $309.06 | 21 | $6,490.26 | $6,780.99 |
$-373.59 (-5.4%) |
TRAIL_STOP
1.8d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 26, 2025 9:35am ET | $306.76 | 22 | $6,748.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 2, 2025 12:10pm ET | $368.65 | 22 | $8,110.30 | $8,142.57 |
+$1,361.58 (+20.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
6.1d held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 3, 2025 1:15pm ET | $376.61 | 21 | $7,908.81 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 7, 2025 11:00am ET | $375.65 | 21 | $7,888.55 | $8,122.30 |
$-20.27 (-0.3%) |
TRAIL_STOP
3.9d held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 9, 2025 9:40am ET | $382.90 | 21 | $8,040.99 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 10, 2025 10:35am ET | $386.42 | 21 | $8,114.72 | $8,196.03 |
+$73.73 (+0.9%) |
TRAIL_STOP
1d held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 13, 2025 10:45am ET | $348.92 | 23 | $8,025.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 14, 2025 10:55am ET | $345.59 | 23 | $7,948.57 | $8,119.44 |
$-76.59 (-1.0%) |
TRAIL_STOP
1d held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 15, 2025 11:30am ET | $342.07 | 23 | $7,867.61 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 16, 2025 12:30pm ET | $329.21 | 23 | $7,571.83 | $7,823.66 |
$-295.78 (-3.8%) |
TRAIL_STOP
1d held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 20, 2025 3:55pm ET | $343.79 | 22 | $7,563.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 22, 2025 9:30am ET | $328.00 | 22 | $7,216.00 | $7,476.28 |
$-347.38 (-4.6%) |
TRAIL_STOP
1.7d held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 23, 2025 3:55pm ET | $322.71 | 23 | $7,422.33 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 28, 2025 11:40am ET | $359.49 | 23 | $8,268.16 | $8,322.11 |
+$845.83 (+11.4%) |
TRAIL_STOP
4.8d held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 29, 2025 2:35pm ET | $345.61 | 24 | $8,294.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 30, 2025 2:35pm ET | $334.56 | 24 | $8,029.44 | $8,056.91 |
$-265.20 (-3.2%) |
TRAIL_STOP
1d held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 31, 2025 3:55pm ET | $343.56 | 23 | $7,901.77 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 3, 2025 10:25am ET | $330.85 | 23 | $7,609.55 | $7,764.69 |
$-292.22 (-3.7%) |
TRAIL_STOP
2.8d held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 4, 2025 10:30am ET | $321.58 | 24 | $7,717.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 6, 2025 9:30am ET | $309.00 | 24 | $7,416.00 | $7,462.89 |
$-301.80 (-3.9%) |
TRAIL_STOP
2d held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 7, 2025 9:30am ET | $288.58 | 25 | $7,214.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 11, 2025 10:50am ET | $310.90 | 25 | $7,772.50 | $8,020.89 |
+$558.00 (+7.7%) |
TRAIL_STOP
4.1d held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 12, 2025 10:50am ET | $302.30 | 26 | $7,859.87 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 13, 2025 10:50am ET | $292.31 | 26 | $7,600.06 | $7,761.09 |
$-259.81 (-3.3%) |
TRAIL_STOP
1d held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 14, 2025 12:45pm ET | $288.32 | 26 | $7,496.19 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 17, 2025 9:30am ET | $271.84 | 26 | $7,067.71 | $7,332.61 |
$-428.48 (-5.7%) |
TRAIL_STOP
2.9d held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 18, 2025 3:30pm ET | $264.55 | 27 | $7,142.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 19, 2025 12:35pm ET | $247.64 | 27 | $6,686.28 | $6,876.04 |
$-456.57 (-6.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21.1h held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 20, 2025 12:35pm ET | $238.89 | 28 | $6,688.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 25, 2025 9:35am ET | $247.39 | 28 | $6,926.92 | $7,114.04 |
+$238.00 (+3.6%) |
TRAIL_STOP
4.9d held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 26, 2025 11:45am ET | $256.90 | 27 | $6,936.17 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 1, 2025 9:30am ET | $259.29 | 27 | $7,000.70 | $7,178.57 |
+$64.53 (+0.9%) |
TRAIL_STOP
4.9d held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 2, 2025 11:20am ET | $266.12 | 26 | $6,919.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 5, 2025 9:30am ET | $269.30 | 26 | $7,001.80 | $7,261.25 |
+$82.68 (+1.2%) |
TRAIL_STOP
2.9d held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 9, 2025 9:30am ET | $270.85 | 26 | $7,041.97 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 10, 2025 9:35am ET | $273.72 | 26 | $7,116.72 | $7,336.00 |
+$74.75 (+1.1%) |
TRAIL_STOP
1d held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 11, 2025 9:45am ET | $266.40 | 27 | $7,192.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 12, 2025 11:00am ET | $265.33 | 27 | $7,163.96 | $7,307.16 |
$-28.84 (-0.4%) |
TRAIL_STOP
1.1d held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 17, 2025 10:55am ET | $251.00 | 29 | $7,278.86 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 18, 2025 12:20pm ET | $243.67 | 29 | $7,066.43 | $7,094.73 |
$-212.43 (-2.9%) |
TRAIL_STOP
1.1d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 22, 2025 11:30am ET | $251.43 | 28 | $7,039.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 23, 2025 11:30am ET | $239.56 | 28 | $6,707.54 | $6,762.37 |
$-332.36 (-4.7%) |
TRAIL_STOP
1d held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 26, 2025 9:30am ET | $238.00 | 28 | $6,664.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 31, 2025 9:45am ET | $229.68 | 28 | $6,431.04 | $6,529.41 |
$-232.96 (-3.5%) |
TRAIL_STOP
5d held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 5, 2026 3:30pm ET | $256.69 | 25 | $6,417.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 7, 2026 9:30am ET | $245.32 | 25 | $6,133.00 | $6,245.16 |
$-284.25 (-4.4%) |
TRAIL_STOP
1.8d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 8, 2026 3:00pm ET | $244.20 | 25 | $6,105.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 15, 2026 9:30am ET | $248.86 | 25 | $6,221.50 | $6,361.66 |
+$116.50 (+1.9%) |
TRAIL_STOP
6.8d held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 16, 2026 9:30am ET | $239.05 | 26 | $6,215.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $231.88 | 26 | $6,028.96 | $6,175.32 |
$-186.34 (-3.0%) |
TRAIL_STOP
4d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 21, 2026 11:35am ET | $225.73 | 27 | $6,094.71 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $218.16 | 27 | $5,890.32 | $5,970.93 |
$-204.39 (-3.4%) |
TRAIL_STOP
1.9d held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $214.95 | 27 | $5,803.65 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 28, 2026 12:30pm ET | $207.56 | 27 | $5,604.08 | $5,771.36 |
$-199.57 (-3.4%) |
TRAIL_STOP
2.1d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 29, 2026 1:30pm ET | $194.72 | 29 | $5,646.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 30, 2026 1:30pm ET | $192.11 | 29 | $5,571.05 | $5,695.53 |
$-75.83 (-1.3%) |
TRAIL_STOP
1d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 2, 2026 2:55pm ET | $188.13 | 30 | $5,643.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2026 1:00pm ET | $176.51 | 30 | $5,295.35 | $5,346.97 |
$-348.55 (-6.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.1h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 4, 2026 1:00pm ET | $165.56 | 32 | $5,297.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 10:10am ET | $154.13 | 32 | $4,932.32 | $4,981.37 |
$-365.60 (-6.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21.2h held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2026 2:00pm ET | $161.18 | 30 | $4,835.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 11, 2026 9:30am ET | $155.73 | 30 | $4,671.90 | $4,818.02 |
$-163.35 (-3.4%) |
TRAIL_STOP
4.8d held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 12, 2026 9:35am ET | $150.39 | 32 | $4,812.41 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 12, 2026 11:20am ET | $141.27 | 32 | $4,520.64 | $4,526.25 |
$-291.77 (-6.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.8h held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 13, 2026 1:25pm ET | $164.30 | 27 | $4,436.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $210.88 | 27 | $5,693.76 | $5,783.91 |
+$1,257.66 (+28.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
19.8d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$5,783.91
Net Profit/Loss:
$-4,216.09
Total Return:
-42.16%