HOOD Lucky Strike's Analysis
Last Year: 2025-09-25 to present • 33 trades in period
-32.24%
Last Year Return
$34,890.26
Current Value
33%
Win Rate
$51,492.10
Period Start
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 2.8
Storm
⛈️ 1 storm day in 7d
RSI(14)
13.3 oversold
20d Trend
-41.6%
5d Trend
-28.6%
EMA20 Dist
-26.6%
ATR%
7.5%
Range Pos
2%
Bounce Ratio
0.1×
Green/Red 10d
1/9
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.
Strategy Score Scored Jun 20, 2026
48
Lifetime
Confidence: 72%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
35.0/35
Total Return
19.9/25
Win Rate
3.6/15
Profit Factor
2.1/15
Consistency
6.5/10
Raw Quality
67.2/100
× Confidence 0.72
= 48.4
30-Day Momentum
Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (72%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last Year)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
29,289
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-09-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
265 days
Data Gaps
None (10 market holidays)
Market Closed (10 days)
2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last Year)
Period Start Capital
$51,492.10
Current Value
$34,890.26
Period P&L
$-16,601.79
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.16
Trade Statistics (Last Year)
Trades in Period
33
Winners / Losers
11 /
22
Best Trade
+13.89%
Worst Trade
-7.46%
Avg Trade Return
-0.81%
Avg Hold Time
3.9d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Year)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$3,440,236.62
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-16,601.79
Net P&L (after fees)
$-16,601.79
Gross Return
-32.24%
Net Return (after fees)
-32.24%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 HOOD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 265 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last Year - 33 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Lucky Strike had $51,492.10 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 16, 2025 1:05pm ET | $116.53 | 407 | $47,425.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 25, 2025 9:30am ET | $122.49 | 407 | $49,854.16 | $49,958.41 |
+$2,428.49 (+5.1%) |
TRAIL_STOP
8.9d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 26, 2025 10:45am ET | $121.35 | 411 | $49,874.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 1, 2025 3:10pm ET | $138.20 | 411 | $56,800.20 | $56,883.76 |
+$6,925.35 (+13.9%) |
TRAIL_STOP
5.2d held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 3, 2025 1:00pm ET | $148.95 | 381 | $56,749.49 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 6, 2025 3:45pm ET | $144.71 | 381 | $55,134.51 | $55,268.77 |
$-1,614.98 (-2.8%) |
TRAIL_STOP
3.1d held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 9, 2025 9:40am ET | $147.75 | 374 | $55,258.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 10, 2025 10:55am ET | $147.15 | 374 | $55,033.17 | $55,043.44 |
$-225.33 (-0.4%) |
TRAIL_STOP
1.1d held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 13, 2025 11:00am ET | $136.83 | 402 | $55,005.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 14, 2025 3:40pm ET | $135.68 | 402 | $54,543.36 | $54,581.14 |
$-462.30 (-0.8%) |
TRAIL_STOP
1.2d held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 16, 2025 11:55am ET | $133.80 | 407 | $54,454.57 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 17, 2025 11:55am ET | $127.74 | 407 | $51,988.15 | $52,114.72 |
$-2,466.42 (-4.5%) |
TRAIL_STOP
1d held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 20, 2025 3:55pm ET | $135.81 | 383 | $52,015.23 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 22, 2025 9:30am ET | $129.38 | 383 | $49,551.97 | $49,651.45 |
$-2,463.26 (-4.7%) |
TRAIL_STOP
1.7d held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 24, 2025 10:45am ET | $138.16 | 359 | $49,599.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 29, 2025 2:35pm ET | $143.03 | 359 | $51,345.98 | $51,397.63 |
+$1,746.18 (+3.5%) |
TRAIL_STOP
5.2d held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 30, 2025 3:05pm ET | $138.19 | 371 | $51,268.49 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 3, 2025 10:20am ET | $144.22 | 371 | $53,504.10 | $53,633.24 |
+$2,235.61 (+4.4%) |
TRAIL_STOP
3.8d held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 4, 2025 10:30am ET | $142.88 | 375 | $53,581.01 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 6, 2025 9:30am ET | $138.16 | 375 | $51,811.84 | $51,864.06 |
$-1,769.18 (-3.3%) |
TRAIL_STOP
2d held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 7, 2025 9:30am ET | $122.06 | 424 | $51,753.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 10, 2025 11:05am ET | $132.79 | 424 | $56,303.51 | $56,414.13 |
+$4,550.07 (+8.8%) |
TRAIL_STOP
3.1d held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 11, 2025 11:25am ET | $131.10 | 430 | $56,373.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 13, 2025 9:35am ET | $127.71 | 430 | $54,915.30 | $54,956.43 |
$-1,457.70 (-2.6%) |
TRAIL_STOP
1.9d held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 14, 2025 1:00pm ET | $124.91 | 439 | $54,835.49 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 17, 2025 9:30am ET | $118.70 | 439 | $52,107.90 | $52,228.84 |
$-2,727.59 (-5.0%) |
TRAIL_STOP
2.9d held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 18, 2025 12:25pm ET | $113.96 | 458 | $52,191.39 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 19, 2025 12:30pm ET | $114.20 | 458 | $52,305.84 | $52,343.29 |
+$114.45 (+0.2%) |
TRAIL_STOP
1d held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 20, 2025 12:30pm ET | $107.64 | 486 | $52,310.61 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 21, 2025 1:05pm ET | $106.39 | 486 | $51,705.54 | $51,738.22 |
$-605.07 (-1.2%) |
TRAIL_STOP
1d held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 25, 2025 9:30am ET | $112.98 | 457 | $51,631.86 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 1, 2025 9:30am ET | $123.37 | 457 | $56,380.09 | $56,486.45 |
+$4,748.23 (+9.2%) |
TRAIL_STOP
6d held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 2, 2025 11:20am ET | $125.06 | 451 | $56,399.81 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 5, 2025 9:45am ET | $132.22 | 451 | $59,631.22 | $59,717.87 |
+$3,231.42 (+5.7%) |
TRAIL_STOP
2.9d held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 8, 2025 2:00pm ET | $135.39 | 441 | $59,706.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 10, 2025 9:30am ET | $134.24 | 441 | $59,199.84 | $59,211.42 |
$-506.44 (-0.8%) |
TRAIL_STOP
1.8d held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 11, 2025 9:30am ET | $128.98 | 459 | $59,201.82 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 12, 2025 9:30am ET | $125.21 | 459 | $57,471.39 | $57,480.99 |
$-1,730.43 (-2.9%) |
TRAIL_STOP
1d held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 15, 2025 9:30am ET | $118.68 | 484 | $57,441.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 17, 2025 10:50am ET | $119.90 | 484 | $58,031.60 | $58,071.47 |
+$590.48 (+1.0%) |
TRAIL_STOP
2.1d held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 18, 2025 11:00am ET | $120.44 | 482 | $58,051.31 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 23, 2025 9:35am ET | $119.47 | 482 | $57,582.13 | $57,602.30 |
$-469.18 (-0.8%) |
TRAIL_STOP
4.9d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 24, 2025 9:35am ET | $118.90 | 484 | $57,547.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 29, 2025 1:45pm ET | $116.21 | 484 | $56,245.64 | $56,300.34 |
$-1,301.96 (-2.3%) |
TRAIL_STOP
5.2d held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 31, 2025 9:30am ET | $115.20 | 488 | $56,217.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 2, 2026 10:15am ET | $111.02 | 488 | $54,175.32 | $54,258.06 |
$-2,042.28 (-3.6%) |
TRAIL_STOP
2d held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 6, 2026 10:30am ET | $121.33 | 447 | $54,235.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 7, 2026 3:05pm ET | $117.77 | 447 | $52,643.19 | $52,665.89 |
$-1,592.17 (-2.9%) |
TRAIL_STOP
1.2d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 9, 2026 10:40am ET | $115.35 | 456 | $52,600.97 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 15, 2026 10:40am ET | $116.06 | 456 | $52,925.28 | $52,990.19 |
+$324.31 (+0.6%) |
TRAIL_STOP
6d held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $105.79 | 500 | $52,895.05 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 27, 2026 10:15am ET | $106.22 | 500 | $53,110.00 | $53,205.14 |
+$214.95 (+0.4%) |
TRAIL_STOP
7d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 28, 2026 2:25pm ET | $103.35 | 514 | $53,121.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 29, 2026 2:30pm ET | $100.05 | 514 | $51,426.21 | $51,509.46 |
$-1,695.69 (-3.2%) |
TRAIL_STOP
1d held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 30, 2026 3:05pm ET | $99.29 | 518 | $51,432.22 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $93.50 | 518 | $48,433.00 | $48,510.24 |
$-2,999.22 (-5.8%) |
TRAIL_STOP
2.8d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 3, 2026 9:50am ET | $88.01 | 551 | $48,493.51 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 4, 2026 9:30am ET | $82.66 | 551 | $45,545.88 | $45,562.61 |
$-2,947.63 (-6.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.7h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 9:35am ET | $79.05 | 576 | $45,532.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 10:30am ET | $74.12 | 576 | $42,693.29 | $42,723.10 |
$-2,839.51 (-6.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
55m held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2026 1:20pm ET | $82.99 | 514 | $42,656.86 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 11, 2026 9:30am ET | $76.80 | 514 | $39,475.20 | $39,541.44 |
$-3,181.66 (-7.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.8d held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 12, 2026 9:35am ET | $75.95 | 520 | $39,494.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 12, 2026 11:05am ET | $71.35 | 520 | $37,102.00 | $37,149.44 |
$-2,392.00 (-6.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.5h held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 13, 2026 1:25pm ET | $75.83 | 489 | $37,080.87 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 20, 2026 1:15pm ET | $71.21 | 489 | $34,821.69 | $34,890.26 |
$-2,259.18 (-6.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
35d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$34,890.26
Net Profit/Loss:
+$24,890.26
Total Return:
+248.90%