Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 00:29:08

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
22.7 oversold
20d Trend
-16.1%
5d Trend
-8.1%
EMA20 Dist
-9.8%
ATR%
3.8%
Range Pos
2%
Bounce Ratio
0.3×
Green/Red 10d
2/8

Strategy Score Scored Jun 20, 2026

21
Lifetime
Confidence: 56%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
15.8/35
Total Return
11.4/25
Win Rate
2.3/15
Profit Factor
1.6/15
Consistency
6.2/10
Raw Quality 37.2/100
× Confidence 0.56 = 20.9

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (56%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Year)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
28,861
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-09-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
265 days
Data Gaps
None (10 market holidays)

Market Closed (10 days)

2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Year)

Period Start Capital
$16,289.85
Current Value
$12,250.66
Period P&L
$-4,039.17
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.72

Trade Statistics (Last Year)

Trades in Period
12
Winners / Losers
2 / 10
Best Trade
+3.97%
Worst Trade
-6.95%
Avg Trade Return
-2.20%
Avg Hold Time
13d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Year)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$363,104.47
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-4,039.17
Net P&L (after fees)
$-4,039.17
Gross Return
-24.80%
Net Return (after fees)
-24.80%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 MSFT Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 265 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Year - 12 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Lucky Strike had $16,289.85 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Sep 2, 2025 9:30am ET $501.75 31 $15,554.25 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 10, 2025 3:35pm ET $512.03 31 $15,872.84 $16,334.69 +$318.59
(+2.0%)
TRAIL_STOP
38.3d held
2 🟢 BUY Oct 14, 2025 9:30am ET $507.74 32 $16,247.68 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 30, 2025 9:55am ET $527.88 32 $16,892.16 $16,979.17 +$644.48
(+4.0%)
TRAIL_STOP
16d held
3 🟢 BUY Oct 31, 2025 9:55am ET $519.24 32 $16,615.68 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 6, 2025 9:30am ET $503.47 32 $16,110.88 $16,474.37 $-504.80
(-3.0%)
TRAIL_STOP
6d held
4 🟢 BUY Nov 7, 2025 9:35am ET $496.48 33 $16,383.84 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 18, 2025 9:55am ET $493.99 33 $16,301.67 $16,392.20 $-82.17
(-0.5%)
TRAIL_STOP
11d held
5 🟢 BUY Nov 21, 2025 9:45am ET $476.17 34 $16,189.78 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 3, 2025 9:45am ET $475.71 34 $16,173.97 $16,376.39 $-15.81
(-0.1%)
TRAIL_STOP
12d held
6 🟢 BUY Dec 10, 2025 9:30am ET $480.70 34 $16,343.63 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 2, 2026 1:10pm ET $471.91 34 $16,044.94 $16,077.70 $-298.69
(-1.8%)
TRAIL_STOP
23.2d held
7 🟢 BUY Jan 8, 2026 9:30am ET $480.91 33 $15,870.16 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 14, 2026 10:30am ET $464.00 33 $15,312.00 $15,519.55 $-558.16
(-3.5%)
TRAIL_STOP
6d held
8 🟢 BUY Jan 20, 2026 9:30am ET $451.40 34 $15,347.43 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 21, 2026 1:00pm ET $439.65 34 $14,948.22 $15,120.33 $-399.21
(-2.6%)
TRAIL_STOP
1.1d held
9 🟢 BUY Jan 26, 2026 9:30am ET $464.29 32 $14,857.12 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 29, 2026 9:30am ET $432.00 32 $13,824.00 $14,087.21 $-1,033.12
(-7.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held
10 🟢 BUY Feb 2, 2026 9:30am ET $427.32 32 $13,674.24 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 3, 2026 9:50am ET $415.03 32 $13,280.96 $13,693.93 $-393.28
(-2.9%)
TRAIL_STOP
1d held
11 🟢 BUY Feb 4, 2026 3:50pm ET $413.65 33 $13,650.45 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 5, 2026 3:50pm ET $393.70 33 $12,992.10 $13,035.58 $-658.35
(-4.8%)
TRAIL_STOP
1d held
12 🟢 BUY Feb 11, 2026 9:35am ET $409.70 31 $12,700.70 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 20, 2026 9:35am ET $384.38 31 $11,915.78 $12,250.66 $-784.92
(-6.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
37d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $12,250.66
Net Profit/Loss: +$2,250.66
Total Return: +22.51%
Back to Lucky Strike