MU Lucky Strike's Analysis
Last Year: 2025-05-06 to present • 38 trades in period
+263.12%
Last Year Return
$44,992.26
Current Value
61%
Win Rate
$12,390.60
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
37.4 neutral
20d Trend
-12.8%
5d Trend
-1.7%
EMA20 Dist
-6.9%
ATR%
5.6%
Range Pos
6%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
3/7
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.
Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026
53
Lifetime
Confidence: 75%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
35.0/35
Total Return
21.1/25
Win Rate
1.5/15
Profit Factor
8.4/15
Consistency
5.6/10
Raw Quality
71.6/100
× Confidence 0.75
= 53.5
30-Day Momentum
Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (75%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last Year)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
39,096
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-05-06 → 2026-05-05
Trading Days
260 days
Data Gaps
1 day with gaps
Data Gap Notice
The following dates had fewer candles than expected. This could be due to early market closes, API rate limits during data collection, or low volume periods. Simulation results may be slightly affected.
2025-11-28 (no data)
Market Closed (10 days)
2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last Year)
Period Start Capital
$12,390.60
Current Value
$44,992.26
Period P&L
$32,601.64
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.48
Trade Statistics (Last Year)
Trades in Period
38
Winners / Losers
23 /
15
Best Trade
+21.51%
Worst Trade
-6.22%
Avg Trade Return
+3.85%
Avg Hold Time
4.4d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Year)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$2,302,832.05
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$32,601.64
Net P&L (after fees)
$32,601.64
Gross Return
+263.12%
Net Return (after fees)
+263.12%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 MU Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 260 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last Year - 38 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Lucky Strike had $12,390.60 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 29, 2025 11:55am ET | $76.86 | 155 | $11,913.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 12, 2025 9:30am ET | $93.15 | 155 | $14,438.25 | $14,498.62 |
+$2,524.95 (+21.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
12.9d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | May 14, 2025 9:30am ET | $95.97 | 151 | $14,491.47 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 22, 2025 11:40am ET | $95.38 | 151 | $14,401.63 | $14,408.78 |
$-89.84 (-0.6%) |
TRAIL_STOP
8.1d held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | May 30, 2025 9:30am ET | $93.88 | 153 | $14,362.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 10, 2025 9:30am ET | $114.07 | 153 | $17,452.53 | $17,498.43 |
+$3,089.65 (+21.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
11d held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 23, 2025 9:30am ET | $122.51 | 142 | $17,395.71 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 26, 2025 1:20pm ET | $124.31 | 142 | $17,652.01 | $17,754.72 |
+$256.30 (+1.5%) |
TRAIL_STOP
3.2d held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 30, 2025 9:30am ET | $123.24 | 144 | $17,746.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 1, 2025 11:05am ET | $119.64 | 144 | $17,228.16 | $17,236.32 |
$-518.40 (-2.9%) |
TRAIL_STOP
1.1d held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 7, 2025 9:30am ET | $120.12 | 143 | $17,177.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 11, 2025 9:40am ET | $121.35 | 143 | $17,353.05 | $17,412.21 |
+$175.89 (+1.0%) |
TRAIL_STOP
4d held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 14, 2025 9:40am ET | $117.57 | 148 | $17,400.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 16, 2025 9:50am ET | $116.06 | 148 | $17,177.01 | $17,188.87 |
$-223.35 (-1.3%) |
TRAIL_STOP
2d held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 17, 2025 10:10am ET | $111.83 | 153 | $17,110.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 22, 2025 9:35am ET | $111.72 | 153 | $17,093.31 | $17,171.52 |
$-17.35 (-0.1%) |
TRAIL_STOP
5d held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 25, 2025 9:30am ET | $109.66 | 156 | $17,106.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 31, 2025 9:30am ET | $109.59 | 156 | $17,096.04 | $17,161.38 |
$-10.14 (-0.1%) |
TRAIL_STOP
6d held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 1, 2025 9:30am ET | $105.72 | 162 | $17,126.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 12, 2025 11:35am ET | $127.14 | 162 | $20,596.68 | $20,631.42 |
+$3,470.04 (+20.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
11.1d held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 14, 2025 9:30am ET | $122.67 | 168 | $20,608.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 15, 2025 9:35am ET | $121.24 | 168 | $20,368.32 | $20,391.18 |
$-240.24 (-1.2%) |
TRAIL_STOP
1d held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 19, 2025 9:30am ET | $122.04 | 167 | $20,380.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 20, 2025 9:30am ET | $117.75 | 167 | $19,663.75 | $19,674.24 |
$-716.93 (-3.5%) |
TRAIL_STOP
1d held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 21, 2025 11:10am ET | $116.00 | 169 | $19,604.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 29, 2025 2:25pm ET | $118.13 | 169 | $19,963.97 | $20,034.21 |
+$359.97 (+1.8%) |
TRAIL_STOP
8.1d held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 5, 2025 10:55am ET | $126.90 | 157 | $19,923.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 11, 2025 9:30am ET | $153.17 | 157 | $24,048.44 | $24,159.36 |
+$4,125.14 (+20.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5.9d held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 17, 2025 9:40am ET | $157.32 | 153 | $24,069.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 19, 2025 9:30am ET | $162.50 | 153 | $24,862.13 | $24,951.53 |
+$792.17 (+3.3%) |
TRAIL_STOP
2d held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 22, 2025 9:35am ET | $161.98 | 154 | $24,944.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 24, 2025 9:30am ET | $162.72 | 154 | $25,058.90 | $25,065.51 |
+$113.98 (+0.5%) |
TRAIL_STOP
2d held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 25, 2025 9:30am ET | $156.25 | 160 | $24,999.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 3, 2025 9:35am ET | $188.74 | 160 | $30,197.60 | $30,263.91 |
+$5,198.40 (+20.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
8d held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 6, 2025 10:40am ET | $189.79 | 159 | $30,175.82 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 9, 2025 9:30am ET | $190.22 | 159 | $30,244.98 | $30,333.07 |
+$69.17 (+0.2%) |
TRAIL_STOP
3d held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 10, 2025 11:55am ET | $181.51 | 167 | $30,312.17 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 22, 2025 9:30am ET | $193.94 | 167 | $32,387.98 | $32,408.88 |
+$2,075.81 (+6.8%) |
TRAIL_STOP
11.9d held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 27, 2025 9:30am ET | $218.06 | 148 | $32,272.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 31, 2025 9:30am ET | $221.27 | 148 | $32,748.15 | $32,884.15 |
+$475.27 (+1.5%) |
TRAIL_STOP
4d held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 4, 2025 9:30am ET | $221.35 | 148 | $32,759.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 7, 2025 9:30am ET | $233.23 | 148 | $34,517.57 | $34,641.92 |
+$1,757.77 (+5.4%) |
TRAIL_STOP
3d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 11, 2025 9:30am ET | $242.62 | 142 | $34,452.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 13, 2025 9:30am ET | $233.50 | 142 | $33,157.00 | $33,346.88 |
$-1,295.04 (-3.8%) |
TRAIL_STOP
2d held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 17, 2025 9:30am ET | $242.44 | 137 | $33,214.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 18, 2025 9:30am ET | $231.28 | 137 | $31,684.68 | $31,817.28 |
$-1,529.61 (-4.6%) |
TRAIL_STOP
1d held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 20, 2025 9:30am ET | $204.18 | 155 | $31,647.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 3, 2025 9:30am ET | $232.39 | 155 | $36,020.45 | $36,189.83 |
+$4,372.55 (+13.8%) |
TRAIL_STOP
13d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 11, 2025 9:30am ET | $257.87 | 140 | $36,101.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 12, 2025 9:30am ET | $249.45 | 140 | $34,922.30 | $35,010.33 |
$-1,179.50 (-3.3%) |
TRAIL_STOP
1d held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 15, 2025 10:50am ET | $243.24 | 143 | $34,783.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 16, 2025 10:50am ET | $234.19 | 143 | $33,489.17 | $33,715.83 |
$-1,294.49 (-3.7%) |
TRAIL_STOP
1d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 17, 2025 10:50am ET | $228.10 | 147 | $33,529.97 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 18, 2025 10:50am ET | $251.44 | 147 | $36,960.95 | $37,146.81 |
+$3,430.98 (+10.2%) |
TRAIL_STOP
1d held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 19, 2025 11:45am ET | $261.15 | 142 | $37,083.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 31, 2025 9:35am ET | $286.25 | 142 | $40,647.50 | $40,711.21 |
+$3,564.40 (+9.6%) |
TRAIL_STOP
11.9d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 2, 2026 11:50am ET | $306.63 | 132 | $40,475.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 8, 2026 9:45am ET | $333.32 | 132 | $43,998.24 | $44,233.79 |
+$3,522.58 (+8.7%) |
TRAIL_STOP
5.9d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 12, 2026 9:30am ET | $342.43 | 129 | $44,173.47 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 13, 2026 3:25pm ET | $335.46 | 129 | $43,273.70 | $43,334.01 |
$-899.78 (-2.0%) |
TRAIL_STOP
1.2d held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 15, 2026 11:40am ET | $342.23 | 126 | $43,120.98 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 20, 2026 10:30am ET | $365.56 | 126 | $46,060.56 | $46,273.59 |
+$2,939.58 (+6.8%) |
TRAIL_STOP
5d held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 21, 2026 12:10pm ET | $384.67 | 120 | $46,160.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 23, 2026 12:40pm ET | $395.55 | 120 | $47,466.00 | $47,579.19 |
+$1,305.60 (+2.8%) |
TRAIL_STOP
2d held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 27, 2026 3:50pm ET | $409.98 | 116 | $47,557.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 29, 2026 10:35am ET | $426.31 | 116 | $49,451.40 | $49,472.92 |
+$1,893.72 (+4.0%) |
TRAIL_STOP
1.8d held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 30, 2026 10:55am ET | $440.89 | 112 | $49,379.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 30, 2026 3:10pm ET | $413.45 | 112 | $46,306.40 | $46,400.20 |
$-3,072.72 (-6.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.3h held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 3, 2026 9:40am ET | $429.05 | 108 | $46,336.86 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 4, 2026 9:40am ET | $408.46 | 108 | $44,113.68 | $44,177.02 |
$-2,223.18 (-4.8%) |
TRAIL_STOP
1d held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 10:10am ET | $367.34 | 120 | $44,080.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $372.10 | 120 | $44,652.00 | $44,748.22 |
+$571.20 (+1.3%) |
TRAIL_STOP
4d held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 10, 2026 9:30am ET | $372.60 | 120 | $44,712.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 11, 2026 10:20am ET | $386.88 | 120 | $46,425.60 | $46,461.82 |
+$1,713.60 (+3.8%) |
TRAIL_STOP
1d held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 12, 2026 10:40am ET | $420.13 | 110 | $46,214.81 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 13, 2026 10:40am ET | $406.77 | 110 | $44,745.25 | $44,992.26 |
$-1,469.56 (-3.2%) |
TRAIL_STOP
1d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$44,992.26
Net Profit/Loss:
+$34,992.26
Total Return:
+349.92%