Compendium › Lucky Strike › MU
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
MU
Alpaca Tradeable

Lucky Strike's Analysis

Last Year: 2025-09-25 to present • 22 trades in period

+79.50%
Last Year Return
$44,992.26
Current Value
64%
Win Rate
$25,065.49
Period Start
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PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 04:18:46

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 2.8
Storm
⛈️ 1 storm day in 7d
RSI(14)
37.4 neutral
20d Trend
-12.8%
5d Trend
-1.7%
EMA20 Dist
-6.9%
ATR%
5.6%
Range Pos
6%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
3/7
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 13, 2026

52
Lifetime
Confidence: 73%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
35.0/35
Total Return
21.1/25
Win Rate
1.5/15
Profit Factor
8.4/15
Consistency
5.6/10
Raw Quality 71.6/100
× Confidence 0.73 = 51.9

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (73%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Year)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
29,436
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-09-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
260 days
Data Gaps
1 day with gaps

Data Gap Notice

The following dates had fewer candles than expected. This could be due to early market closes, API rate limits during data collection, or low volume periods. Simulation results may be slightly affected.

2025-11-28 (no data)

Market Closed (10 days)

2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Year)

Period Start Capital
$25,065.49
Current Value
$44,992.26
Period P&L
$19,926.75
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.43

Trade Statistics (Last Year)

Trades in Period
22
Winners / Losers
14 / 8
Best Trade
+20.79%
Worst Trade
-6.22%
Avg Trade Return
+2.92%
Avg Hold Time
3.8d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Year)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,707,015.54
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$19,926.75
Net P&L (after fees)
$19,926.75
Gross Return
+79.50%
Net Return (after fees)
+79.50%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 MU Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 260 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Year - 22 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Lucky Strike had $25,065.49 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Sep 25, 2025 9:30am ET $156.25 160 $24,999.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 3, 2025 9:35am ET $188.74 160 $30,197.60 $30,263.91 +$5,198.40
(+20.8%) 		🎯 +5% Target
8d held
2 🟢 BUY Oct 6, 2025 10:40am ET $189.79 159 $30,175.82 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 9, 2025 9:30am ET $190.22 159 $30,244.98 $30,333.07 +$69.17
(+0.2%) 		TRAIL_STOP
3d held
3 🟢 BUY Oct 10, 2025 11:55am ET $181.51 167 $30,312.17 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 22, 2025 9:30am ET $193.94 167 $32,387.98 $32,408.88 +$2,075.81
(+6.8%) 		TRAIL_STOP
11.9d held
4 🟢 BUY Oct 27, 2025 9:30am ET $218.06 148 $32,272.88 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 31, 2025 9:30am ET $221.27 148 $32,748.15 $32,884.15 +$475.27
(+1.5%) 		TRAIL_STOP
4d held
5 🟢 BUY Nov 4, 2025 9:30am ET $221.35 148 $32,759.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 7, 2025 9:30am ET $233.23 148 $34,517.57 $34,641.92 +$1,757.77
(+5.4%) 		TRAIL_STOP
3d held
6 🟢 BUY Nov 11, 2025 9:30am ET $242.62 142 $34,452.04 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 13, 2025 9:30am ET $233.50 142 $33,157.00 $33,346.88 $-1,295.04
(-3.8%) 		TRAIL_STOP
2d held
7 🟢 BUY Nov 17, 2025 9:30am ET $242.44 137 $33,214.28 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 18, 2025 9:30am ET $231.28 137 $31,684.68 $31,817.28 $-1,529.61
(-4.6%) 		TRAIL_STOP
1d held
8 🟢 BUY Nov 20, 2025 9:30am ET $204.18 155 $31,647.90 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 3, 2025 9:30am ET $232.39 155 $36,020.45 $36,189.83 +$4,372.55
(+13.8%) 		TRAIL_STOP
13d held
9 🟢 BUY Dec 11, 2025 9:30am ET $257.87 140 $36,101.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 12, 2025 9:30am ET $249.45 140 $34,922.30 $35,010.33 $-1,179.50
(-3.3%) 		TRAIL_STOP
1d held
10 🟢 BUY Dec 15, 2025 10:50am ET $243.24 143 $34,783.66 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 16, 2025 10:50am ET $234.19 143 $33,489.17 $33,715.83 $-1,294.49
(-3.7%) 		TRAIL_STOP
1d held
11 🟢 BUY Dec 17, 2025 10:50am ET $228.10 147 $33,529.97 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 18, 2025 10:50am ET $251.44 147 $36,960.95 $37,146.81 +$3,430.98
(+10.2%) 		TRAIL_STOP
1d held
12 🟢 BUY Dec 19, 2025 11:45am ET $261.15 142 $37,083.10 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 31, 2025 9:35am ET $286.25 142 $40,647.50 $40,711.21 +$3,564.40
(+9.6%) 		TRAIL_STOP
11.9d held
13 🟢 BUY Jan 2, 2026 11:50am ET $306.63 132 $40,475.66 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 8, 2026 9:45am ET $333.32 132 $43,998.24 $44,233.79 +$3,522.58
(+8.7%) 		TRAIL_STOP
5.9d held
14 🟢 BUY Jan 12, 2026 9:30am ET $342.43 129 $44,173.47 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 13, 2026 3:25pm ET $335.46 129 $43,273.70 $43,334.01 $-899.78
(-2.0%) 		TRAIL_STOP
1.2d held
15 🟢 BUY Jan 15, 2026 11:40am ET $342.23 126 $43,120.98 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 20, 2026 10:30am ET $365.56 126 $46,060.56 $46,273.59 +$2,939.58
(+6.8%) 		TRAIL_STOP
5d held
16 🟢 BUY Jan 21, 2026 12:10pm ET $384.67 120 $46,160.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 23, 2026 12:40pm ET $395.55 120 $47,466.00 $47,579.19 +$1,305.60
(+2.8%) 		TRAIL_STOP
2d held
17 🟢 BUY Jan 27, 2026 3:50pm ET $409.98 116 $47,557.68 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 29, 2026 10:35am ET $426.31 116 $49,451.40 $49,472.92 +$1,893.72
(+4.0%) 		TRAIL_STOP
1.8d held
18 🟢 BUY Jan 30, 2026 10:55am ET $440.89 112 $49,379.12 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 30, 2026 3:10pm ET $413.45 112 $46,306.40 $46,400.20 $-3,072.72
(-6.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
4.3h held
19 🟢 BUY Feb 3, 2026 9:40am ET $429.05 108 $46,336.86 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 4, 2026 9:40am ET $408.46 108 $44,113.68 $44,177.02 $-2,223.18
(-4.8%) 		TRAIL_STOP
1d held
20 🟢 BUY Feb 5, 2026 10:10am ET $367.34 120 $44,080.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 9:30am ET $372.10 120 $44,652.00 $44,748.22 +$571.20
(+1.3%) 		TRAIL_STOP
4d held
21 🟢 BUY Feb 10, 2026 9:30am ET $372.60 120 $44,712.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 11, 2026 10:20am ET $386.88 120 $46,425.60 $46,461.82 +$1,713.60
(+3.8%) 		TRAIL_STOP
1d held
22 🟢 BUY Feb 12, 2026 10:40am ET $420.13 110 $46,214.81 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 13, 2026 10:40am ET $406.77 110 $44,745.25 $44,992.26 $-1,469.56
(-3.2%) 		TRAIL_STOP
1d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $44,992.26
Net Profit/Loss: +$34,992.26
Total Return: +349.92%
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