Compendium › Lucky Strike › NVDA
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
NVDA
Alpaca Tradeable

Lucky Strike's Analysis

Last Year: 2025-09-25 to present • 18 trades in period

-7.65%
Last Year Return
$24,956.60
Current Value
28%
Win Rate
$27,024.36
Period Start
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PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 00:29:50

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
33.4 neutral
20d Trend
-9.7%
5d Trend
-7.1%
EMA20 Dist
-5.9%
ATR%
3.2%
Range Pos
3%
Bounce Ratio
0.7×
Green/Red 10d
4/6

Strategy Score Scored May 13, 2026

45
Lifetime
Confidence: 73%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
35.0/35
Total Return
18.1/25
Win Rate
0.7/15
Profit Factor
3.1/15
Consistency
5.8/10
Raw Quality 62.7/100
× Confidence 0.73 = 45.4

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (73%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Year)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
29,908
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-09-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
265 days
Data Gaps
None (10 market holidays)

Market Closed (10 days)

2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Year)

Period Start Capital
$27,024.36
Current Value
$24,956.60
Period P&L
$-2,067.73
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.08

Trade Statistics (Last Year)

Trades in Period
18
Winners / Losers
5 / 13
Best Trade
+11.37%
Worst Trade
-4.47%
Avg Trade Return
-0.35%
Avg Hold Time
5.2d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Year)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$957,869.18
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-2,067.73
Net P&L (after fees)
$-2,067.73
Gross Return
-7.65%
Net Return (after fees)
-7.65%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 NVDA Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 265 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Year - 18 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Lucky Strike had $27,024.36 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Sep 25, 2025 9:30am ET $174.45 154 $26,865.30 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 10, 2025 11:20am ET $188.50 154 $29,029.00 $29,188.03 +$2,163.70
(+8.1%) 		TRAIL_STOP
15.1d held
2 🟢 BUY Oct 14, 2025 9:30am ET $181.34 160 $29,013.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 15, 2025 1:10pm ET $177.63 160 $28,420.80 $28,595.23 $-592.80
(-2.0%) 		TRAIL_STOP
1.2d held
3 🟢 BUY Oct 21, 2025 9:40am ET $181.29 157 $28,462.53 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 22, 2025 1:50pm ET $176.92 157 $27,776.44 $27,909.14 $-686.09
(-2.4%) 		TRAIL_STOP
1.2d held
4 🟢 BUY Oct 23, 2025 3:55pm ET $182.20 153 $27,876.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 30, 2025 9:30am ET $202.91 153 $31,045.86 $31,078.40 +$3,169.26
(+11.4%) 		TRAIL_STOP
6.7d held
5 🟢 BUY Nov 3, 2025 2:00pm ET $208.66 148 $30,881.68 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 4, 2025 2:00pm ET $200.51 148 $29,675.48 $29,872.20 $-1,206.20
(-3.9%) 		TRAIL_STOP
1d held
6 🟢 BUY Nov 5, 2025 3:50pm ET $196.08 152 $29,804.16 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 6, 2025 3:50pm ET $187.31 152 $28,471.12 $28,539.16 $-1,333.04
(-4.5%) 		TRAIL_STOP
1d held
7 🟢 BUY Nov 11, 2025 9:30am ET $194.71 146 $28,427.66 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 13, 2025 9:40am ET $187.08 146 $27,313.68 $27,425.18 $-1,113.98
(-3.9%) 		TRAIL_STOP
2d held
8 🟢 BUY Nov 17, 2025 9:30am ET $186.83 146 $27,277.18 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 18, 2025 9:45am ET $181.74 146 $26,534.04 $26,682.04 $-743.14
(-2.7%) 		TRAIL_STOP
1d held
9 🟢 BUY Nov 19, 2025 12:00pm ET $184.15 144 $26,516.88 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 20, 2025 12:00pm ET $186.12 144 $26,800.85 $26,966.01 +$283.97
(+1.1%) 		TRAIL_STOP
1d held
10 🟢 BUY Nov 21, 2025 3:50pm ET $179.14 150 $26,871.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 25, 2025 9:30am ET $173.99 150 $26,098.50 $26,193.51 $-772.50
(-2.9%) 		TRAIL_STOP
3.7d held
11 🟢 BUY Nov 28, 2025 9:30am ET $179.24 146 $26,169.04 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 11, 2025 9:30am ET $178.48 146 $26,058.08 $26,082.55 $-110.96
(-0.4%) 		TRAIL_STOP
13d held
12 🟢 BUY Dec 12, 2025 10:55am ET $177.24 147 $26,054.28 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 17, 2025 10:55am ET $171.52 147 $25,214.09 $25,242.35 $-840.19
(-3.2%) 		TRAIL_STOP
5d held
13 🟢 BUY Dec 24, 2025 10:20am ET $186.86 135 $25,225.44 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 8, 2026 9:50am ET $186.12 135 $25,126.20 $25,143.12 $-99.24
(-0.4%) 		TRAIL_STOP
15d held
14 🟢 BUY Jan 12, 2026 9:30am ET $184.91 135 $24,962.85 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 14, 2026 10:00am ET $180.97 135 $24,431.57 $24,611.84 $-531.28
(-2.1%) 		TRAIL_STOP
2d held
15 🟢 BUY Jan 16, 2026 3:55pm ET $186.22 132 $24,581.04 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 20, 2026 10:15am ET $179.70 132 $23,720.40 $23,751.20 $-860.64
(-3.5%) 		TRAIL_STOP
3.8d held
16 🟢 BUY Jan 21, 2026 3:55pm ET $183.34 129 $23,650.86 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 2, 2026 9:30am ET $186.93 129 $24,114.61 $24,214.95 +$463.75
(+2.0%) 		TRAIL_STOP
11.7d held
17 🟢 BUY Feb 3, 2026 9:30am ET $184.17 131 $24,126.26 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 4, 2026 10:00am ET $176.91 131 $23,175.22 $23,263.92 $-951.04
(-3.9%) 		TRAIL_STOP
1d held
18 🟢 BUY Feb 5, 2026 10:00am ET $173.15 134 $23,202.10 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 13, 2026 9:30am ET $185.78 134 $24,894.79 $24,956.60 +$1,692.69
(+7.3%) 		TRAIL_STOP
8d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $24,956.60
Net Profit/Loss: +$14,956.60
Total Return: +149.57%
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