SOFI Lucky Strike's Analysis
Last Year: 2025-09-25 to present • 33 trades in period
-6.64%
Last Year Return
$25,470.68
Current Value
36%
Win Rate
$27,283.52
Period Start
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 2.8
Storm
⛈️ 1 storm day in 7d
RSI(14)
14.6 oversold
20d Trend
-30.9%
5d Trend
-17.8%
EMA20 Dist
-19.9%
ATR%
6.6%
Range Pos
2%
Bounce Ratio
0.1×
Green/Red 10d
1/9
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.
Strategy Score Scored Jun 6, 2026
46
Lifetime
Confidence: 72%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
35.0/35
Total Return
18.2/25
Win Rate
2.1/15
Profit Factor
2.4/15
Consistency
6.5/10
Raw Quality
64.3/100
× Confidence 0.72
= 46.3
30-Day Momentum
Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (72%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last Year)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
29,718
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-09-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
265 days
Data Gaps
None (10 market holidays)
Market Closed (10 days)
2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last Year)
Period Start Capital
$27,283.52
Current Value
$25,470.68
Period P&L
$-1,812.85
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.01
Trade Statistics (Last Year)
Trades in Period
33
Winners / Losers
12 /
21
Best Trade
+20.78%
Worst Trade
-6.64%
Avg Trade Return
-0.05%
Avg Hold Time
3d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Year)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$2,004,084.76
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-1,812.85
Net P&L (after fees)
$-1,812.85
Gross Return
-6.64%
Net Return (after fees)
-6.64%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 SOFI Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 265 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last Year - 33 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Lucky Strike had $27,283.52 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 25, 2025 9:30am ET | $27.41 | 995 | $27,273.65 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 26, 2025 10:30am ET | $27.62 | 995 | $27,483.79 | $27,493.64 |
+$210.14 (+0.8%) |
TRAIL_STOP
1d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 29, 2025 10:35am ET | $27.24 | 1,009 | $27,480.82 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 30, 2025 10:35am ET | $25.78 | 1,009 | $26,006.98 | $26,019.79 |
$-1,473.85 (-5.4%) |
TRAIL_STOP
1d held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 1, 2025 11:10am ET | $26.51 | 981 | $26,006.31 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 2, 2025 11:10am ET | $25.61 | 981 | $25,118.51 | $25,131.99 |
$-887.81 (-3.4%) |
TRAIL_STOP
1d held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 3, 2025 1:45pm ET | $25.11 | 1,001 | $25,130.41 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 7, 2025 11:00am ET | $27.58 | 1,001 | $27,605.18 | $27,606.76 |
+$2,474.77 (+9.8%) |
TRAIL_STOP
3.9d held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 8, 2025 1:15pm ET | $27.92 | 988 | $27,580.02 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 10, 2025 11:00am ET | $28.28 | 988 | $27,940.64 | $27,967.38 |
+$360.62 (+1.3%) |
TRAIL_STOP
1.9d held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 14, 2025 9:30am ET | $25.97 | 1,076 | $27,943.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 15, 2025 1:05pm ET | $27.86 | 1,076 | $29,972.41 | $29,996.07 |
+$2,028.69 (+7.3%) |
TRAIL_STOP
1.1d held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 16, 2025 2:15pm ET | $26.69 | 1,123 | $29,972.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 22, 2025 10:10am ET | $27.99 | 1,123 | $31,432.77 | $31,456.08 |
+$1,460.01 (+4.9%) |
TRAIL_STOP
5.8d held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 24, 2025 10:50am ET | $29.16 | 1,078 | $31,434.37 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 28, 2025 10:25am ET | $29.11 | 1,078 | $31,380.80 | $31,402.50 |
$-53.58 (-0.2%) |
TRAIL_STOP
4d held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 29, 2025 10:25am ET | $30.86 | 1,017 | $31,384.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 30, 2025 10:25am ET | $29.99 | 1,017 | $30,494.75 | $30,512.73 |
$-889.77 (-2.8%) |
TRAIL_STOP
1d held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 31, 2025 11:50am ET | $29.12 | 1,047 | $30,486.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 4, 2025 9:30am ET | $28.77 | 1,047 | $30,122.19 | $30,148.38 |
$-364.36 (-1.2%) |
TRAIL_STOP
3.9d held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 5, 2025 9:40am ET | $29.15 | 1,034 | $30,141.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 6, 2025 9:55am ET | $29.38 | 1,034 | $30,378.92 | $30,386.20 |
+$237.82 (+0.8%) |
TRAIL_STOP
1d held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 7, 2025 10:00am ET | $26.48 | 1,147 | $30,372.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 12, 2025 9:35am ET | $31.98 | 1,147 | $36,685.30 | $36,698.94 |
+$6,312.74 (+20.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5d held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 13, 2025 9:35am ET | $30.75 | 1,193 | $36,686.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 13, 2025 12:05pm ET | $28.87 | 1,193 | $34,435.95 | $34,448.70 |
$-2,250.24 (-6.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.5h held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 14, 2025 12:45pm ET | $28.62 | 1,203 | $34,424.45 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 17, 2025 9:30am ET | $27.42 | 1,203 | $32,981.57 | $33,005.82 |
$-1,442.88 (-4.2%) |
TRAIL_STOP
2.9d held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 18, 2025 9:40am ET | $26.03 | 1,267 | $32,980.01 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 19, 2025 11:35am ET | $25.95 | 1,267 | $32,878.65 | $32,904.46 |
$-101.36 (-0.3%) |
TRAIL_STOP
1.1d held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 20, 2025 11:35am ET | $26.81 | 1,227 | $32,895.87 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 20, 2025 3:20pm ET | $25.19 | 1,227 | $30,913.16 | $30,921.75 |
$-1,982.71 (-6.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.8h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 25, 2025 9:40am ET | $26.91 | 1,149 | $30,919.59 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 3, 2025 9:30am ET | $29.28 | 1,149 | $33,647.32 | $33,649.48 |
+$2,727.73 (+8.8%) |
TRAIL_STOP
8d held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 4, 2025 9:30am ET | $28.73 | 1,171 | $33,647.51 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 5, 2025 9:30am ET | $27.32 | 1,171 | $31,991.72 | $31,993.69 |
$-1,655.79 (-4.9%) |
TRAIL_STOP
1d held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 8, 2025 9:55am ET | $27.56 | 1,160 | $31,969.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 9, 2025 3:10pm ET | $26.71 | 1,160 | $30,983.60 | $31,007.69 |
$-986.00 (-3.1%) |
TRAIL_STOP
1.2d held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 10, 2025 3:55pm ET | $27.10 | 1,144 | $30,996.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 12, 2025 11:30am ET | $26.30 | 1,144 | $30,087.20 | $30,098.21 |
$-909.48 (-2.9%) |
TRAIL_STOP
1.8d held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 15, 2025 3:00pm ET | $26.18 | 1,149 | $30,080.82 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 17, 2025 1:35pm ET | $25.74 | 1,149 | $29,569.52 | $29,586.90 |
$-511.31 (-1.7%) |
TRAIL_STOP
1.9d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 23, 2025 9:45am ET | $27.05 | 1,093 | $29,565.65 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 31, 2025 9:40am ET | $26.49 | 1,093 | $28,953.57 | $28,974.82 |
$-612.08 (-2.1%) |
TRAIL_STOP
8d held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 2, 2026 10:10am ET | $25.97 | 1,115 | $28,951.53 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $28.56 | 1,115 | $31,838.83 | $31,862.11 |
+$2,887.29 (+10.0%) |
TRAIL_STOP
4d held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 7, 2026 10:00am ET | $26.52 | 1,201 | $31,844.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 9, 2026 2:55pm ET | $27.31 | 1,201 | $32,793.31 | $32,810.90 |
+$948.79 (+3.0%) |
TRAIL_STOP
2.2d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 13, 2026 9:45am ET | $26.52 | 1,237 | $32,799.06 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 14, 2026 9:55am ET | $26.07 | 1,237 | $32,242.90 | $32,254.75 |
$-556.16 (-1.7%) |
TRAIL_STOP
1d held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 15, 2026 12:50pm ET | $26.86 | 1,200 | $32,232.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 16, 2026 3:30pm ET | $26.05 | 1,200 | $31,262.40 | $31,285.03 |
$-969.72 (-3.0%) |
TRAIL_STOP
1.1d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 21, 2026 9:30am ET | $25.38 | 1,232 | $31,262.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 27, 2026 12:55pm ET | $25.43 | 1,232 | $31,323.60 | $31,346.63 |
+$61.60 (+0.2%) |
TRAIL_STOP
6.1d held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 28, 2026 2:25pm ET | $24.75 | 1,266 | $31,333.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 29, 2026 3:25pm ET | $24.12 | 1,266 | $30,529.59 | $30,542.72 |
$-803.91 (-2.6%) |
TRAIL_STOP
1d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $22.14 | 1,379 | $30,524.17 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2026 11:05am ET | $21.97 | 1,379 | $30,289.74 | $30,308.29 |
$-234.43 (-0.8%) |
TRAIL_STOP
1.1d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 4, 2026 11:30am ET | $20.72 | 1,462 | $30,292.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 10:10am ET | $19.34 | 1,462 | $28,282.39 | $28,298.04 |
$-2,010.25 (-6.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.7h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2026 3:30pm ET | $20.73 | 1,365 | $28,296.45 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 10, 2026 1:35pm ET | $21.18 | 1,365 | $28,910.70 | $28,912.29 |
+$614.25 (+2.2%) |
TRAIL_STOP
3.9d held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 12, 2026 9:30am ET | $20.42 | 1,415 | $28,899.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 12, 2026 11:55am ET | $19.17 | 1,415 | $27,132.62 | $27,144.95 |
$-1,767.34 (-6.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.4h held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 13, 2026 1:25pm ET | $19.69 | 1,378 | $27,139.71 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $18.48 | 1,378 | $25,465.44 | $25,470.68 |
$-1,674.27 (-6.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20.8d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$25,470.68
Net Profit/Loss:
+$15,470.68
Total Return:
+154.71%