TSLA Lucky Strike's Analysis
Last Year: 2025-05-06 to present • 43 trades in period
+22.92%
Last Year Return
$13,692.56
Current Value
47%
Win Rate
$11,139.28
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
30.3 neutral
20d Trend
-11.8%
5d Trend
-10.2%
EMA20 Dist
-9.3%
ATR%
3.6%
Range Pos
7%
Bounce Ratio
0.8×
Green/Red 10d
3/7
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.
Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026
35
Lifetime
Confidence: 74%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
25.9/35
Total Return
13.1/25
Win Rate
0.3/15
Profit Factor
1.1/15
Consistency
6.4/10
Raw Quality
46.7/100
× Confidence 0.74
= 34.8
30-Day Momentum
Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (74%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last Year)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
41,110
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-05-06 → 2026-05-05
Trading Days
265 days
Data Gaps
None (10 market holidays)
Market Closed (10 days)
2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last Year)
Period Start Capital
$11,139.28
Current Value
$13,692.56
Period P&L
$2,553.26
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.11
Trade Statistics (Last Year)
Trades in Period
43
Winners / Losers
20 /
23
Best Trade
+26.99%
Worst Trade
-7.00%
Avg Trade Return
+0.68%
Avg Hold Time
4.4d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Year)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,074,456.23
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$2,553.26
Net P&L (after fees)
$2,553.26
Gross Return
+22.92%
Net Return (after fees)
+22.92%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 TSLA Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 265 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last Year - 43 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Lucky Strike had $11,139.28 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | May 6, 2025 9:30am ET | $275.33 | 40 | $11,013.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 13, 2025 1:30pm ET | $331.65 | 40 | $13,266.00 | $13,391.98 |
+$2,252.70 (+20.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
7.2d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | May 15, 2025 9:30am ET | $341.71 | 39 | $13,326.69 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 19, 2025 9:30am ET | $334.38 | 39 | $13,040.71 | $13,106.00 |
$-285.98 (-2.1%) |
TRAIL_STOP
4d held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | May 20, 2025 2:40pm ET | $346.68 | 37 | $12,827.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 21, 2025 3:05pm ET | $333.68 | 37 | $12,346.34 | $12,625.18 |
$-480.83 (-3.7%) |
TRAIL_STOP
1d held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | May 22, 2025 3:55pm ET | $340.98 | 37 | $12,616.26 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 30, 2025 12:30pm ET | $350.88 | 37 | $12,982.62 | $12,991.54 |
+$366.36 (+2.9%) |
TRAIL_STOP
7.9d held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 3, 2025 2:00pm ET | $349.36 | 37 | $12,926.14 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 4, 2025 2:00pm ET | $334.17 | 37 | $12,364.26 | $12,429.67 |
$-561.87 (-4.3%) |
TRAIL_STOP
1d held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 5, 2025 2:00pm ET | $301.63 | 41 | $12,366.63 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 5, 2025 3:10pm ET | $280.53 | 41 | $11,501.53 | $11,564.57 |
$-865.10 (-7.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.2h held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 6, 2025 3:15pm ET | $298.52 | 38 | $11,343.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 9, 2025 9:30am ET | $284.88 | 38 | $10,825.27 | $11,046.07 |
$-518.50 (-4.6%) |
TRAIL_STOP
2.8d held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 11, 2025 12:05pm ET | $328.45 | 33 | $10,838.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 12, 2025 2:40pm ET | $318.81 | 33 | $10,520.73 | $10,727.95 |
$-318.12 (-2.9%) |
TRAIL_STOP
1.1d held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 17, 2025 9:30am ET | $326.30 | 32 | $10,441.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 20, 2025 10:20am ET | $319.04 | 32 | $10,209.28 | $10,495.63 |
$-232.32 (-2.2%) |
TRAIL_STOP
3d held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 23, 2025 12:15pm ET | $352.75 | 29 | $10,229.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 24, 2025 1:20pm ET | $341.58 | 29 | $9,905.82 | $10,171.74 |
$-323.89 (-3.2%) |
TRAIL_STOP
1d held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 25, 2025 2:30pm ET | $323.02 | 31 | $10,013.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 30, 2025 2:35pm ET | $317.80 | 31 | $9,851.67 | $10,009.65 |
$-162.09 (-1.6%) |
TRAIL_STOP
5d held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 2, 2025 12:00pm ET | $312.59 | 32 | $10,002.93 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 7, 2025 9:30am ET | $290.80 | 32 | $9,305.60 | $9,312.32 |
$-697.33 (-7.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.9d held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 8, 2025 3:05pm ET | $299.28 | 31 | $9,277.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 24, 2025 9:30am ET | $304.93 | 31 | $9,452.85 | $9,487.48 |
+$175.17 (+1.9%) |
TRAIL_STOP
15.8d held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 25, 2025 2:50pm ET | $315.04 | 30 | $9,451.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 30, 2025 11:10am ET | $317.04 | 30 | $9,511.20 | $9,547.48 |
+$60.00 (+0.6%) |
TRAIL_STOP
4.8d held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 31, 2025 1:50pm ET | $308.70 | 30 | $9,261.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 12, 2025 10:15am ET | $334.17 | 30 | $10,025.10 | $10,311.59 |
+$764.10 (+8.3%) |
TRAIL_STOP
11.9d held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 13, 2025 11:05am ET | $341.13 | 30 | $10,233.83 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 15, 2025 11:55am ET | $329.66 | 30 | $9,889.80 | $9,967.56 |
$-344.03 (-3.4%) |
TRAIL_STOP
2d held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 19, 2025 11:00am ET | $331.23 | 30 | $9,936.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 20, 2025 11:00am ET | $316.38 | 30 | $9,491.25 | $9,521.91 |
$-445.65 (-4.5%) |
TRAIL_STOP
1d held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 21, 2025 12:55pm ET | $319.62 | 29 | $9,269.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 28, 2025 11:40am ET | $341.38 | 29 | $9,900.02 | $10,152.82 |
+$630.92 (+6.8%) |
TRAIL_STOP
6.9d held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 29, 2025 1:00pm ET | $333.89 | 30 | $10,016.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 15, 2025 9:30am ET | $424.00 | 30 | $12,720.00 | $12,856.12 |
+$2,703.30 (+27.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
16.9d held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 17, 2025 9:30am ET | $413.97 | 31 | $12,833.07 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 23, 2025 1:35pm ET | $428.03 | 31 | $13,268.90 | $13,291.96 |
+$435.83 (+3.4%) |
TRAIL_STOP
6.2d held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 25, 2025 9:30am ET | $426.80 | 31 | $13,230.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 2, 2025 11:35am ET | $446.43 | 31 | $13,839.33 | $13,900.49 |
+$608.53 (+4.6%) |
TRAIL_STOP
7.1d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 3, 2025 1:00pm ET | $421.36 | 32 | $13,483.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 7, 2025 3:10pm ET | $434.98 | 32 | $13,919.20 | $14,336.33 |
+$435.84 (+3.2%) |
TRAIL_STOP
4.1d held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 9, 2025 9:30am ET | $431.79 | 33 | $14,249.22 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 10, 2025 11:20am ET | $423.78 | 33 | $13,984.85 | $14,071.96 |
$-264.37 (-1.9%) |
TRAIL_STOP
1.1d held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 14, 2025 9:30am ET | $422.70 | 33 | $13,949.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 16, 2025 2:10pm ET | $424.41 | 33 | $14,005.53 | $14,128.40 |
+$56.43 (+0.4%) |
TRAIL_STOP
2.2d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 21, 2025 9:40am ET | $444.00 | 31 | $13,763.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 22, 2025 11:25am ET | $433.22 | 31 | $13,429.82 | $13,794.37 |
$-334.03 (-2.4%) |
TRAIL_STOP
1.1d held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 23, 2025 2:50pm ET | $443.11 | 31 | $13,736.41 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 24, 2025 2:50pm ET | $431.07 | 31 | $13,363.17 | $13,421.13 |
$-373.24 (-2.7%) |
TRAIL_STOP
1d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 27, 2025 3:15pm ET | $450.65 | 29 | $13,068.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 30, 2025 10:00am ET | $448.56 | 29 | $13,008.24 | $13,360.52 |
$-60.61 (-0.5%) |
TRAIL_STOP
2.8d held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 31, 2025 1:10pm ET | $446.05 | 29 | $12,935.45 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 4, 2025 9:30am ET | $449.45 | 29 | $13,034.05 | $13,459.12 |
+$98.60 (+0.8%) |
TRAIL_STOP
3.9d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 5, 2025 10:00am ET | $442.43 | 30 | $13,272.86 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 6, 2025 10:30am ET | $449.44 | 30 | $13,483.20 | $13,669.46 |
+$210.34 (+1.6%) |
TRAIL_STOP
1d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 7, 2025 10:30am ET | $431.75 | 31 | $13,384.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 11, 2025 10:50am ET | $433.30 | 31 | $13,432.30 | $13,717.51 |
+$48.05 (+0.4%) |
TRAIL_STOP
4d held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 12, 2025 11:10am ET | $427.97 | 32 | $13,694.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 13, 2025 11:10am ET | $407.09 | 32 | $13,026.88 | $13,049.51 |
$-668.00 (-4.9%) |
TRAIL_STOP
1d held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 14, 2025 1:20pm ET | $406.25 | 32 | $12,999.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 17, 2025 2:00pm ET | $408.43 | 32 | $13,069.76 | $13,119.43 |
+$69.92 (+0.5%) |
TRAIL_STOP
3d held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 19, 2025 9:40am ET | $401.45 | 32 | $12,846.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 20, 2025 11:50am ET | $411.73 | 32 | $13,175.20 | $13,448.23 |
+$328.80 (+2.6%) |
TRAIL_STOP
1.1d held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 21, 2025 3:20pm ET | $397.00 | 33 | $13,100.99 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 8, 2025 10:40am ET | $441.74 | 33 | $14,577.42 | $14,924.66 |
+$1,476.43 (+11.3%) |
TRAIL_STOP
16.8d held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 11, 2025 9:30am ET | $446.20 | 33 | $14,724.47 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 12, 2025 11:15am ET | $445.49 | 33 | $14,701.17 | $14,901.36 |
$-23.30 (-0.2%) |
TRAIL_STOP
1.1d held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 16, 2025 9:30am ET | $467.17 | 31 | $14,482.27 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 17, 2025 11:10am ET | $475.17 | 31 | $14,730.27 | $15,149.36 |
+$248.00 (+1.7%) |
TRAIL_STOP
1.1d held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 18, 2025 2:30pm ET | $483.91 | 31 | $15,001.21 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 24, 2025 10:05am ET | $480.36 | 31 | $14,891.12 | $15,039.27 |
$-110.09 (-0.7%) |
TRAIL_STOP
5.8d held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 29, 2025 9:30am ET | $463.85 | 32 | $14,843.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 31, 2025 2:30pm ET | $452.02 | 32 | $14,464.64 | $14,660.75 |
$-378.52 (-2.6%) |
TRAIL_STOP
2.2d held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $439.93 | 33 | $14,517.69 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 14, 2026 10:40am ET | $437.59 | 33 | $14,440.51 | $14,583.57 |
$-77.18 (-0.5%) |
TRAIL_STOP
8d held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $427.71 | 34 | $14,541.97 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 26, 2026 3:00pm ET | $435.78 | 34 | $14,816.52 | $14,858.12 |
+$274.55 (+1.9%) |
TRAIL_STOP
6.2d held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 28, 2026 3:55pm ET | $431.46 | 34 | $14,669.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $415.36 | 34 | $14,122.24 | $14,310.72 |
$-547.40 (-3.7%) |
TRAIL_STOP
4.7d held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 4, 2026 10:30am ET | $413.16 | 34 | $14,047.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 10:10am ET | $387.92 | 34 | $13,189.28 | $13,452.56 |
$-858.16 (-6.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.7h held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2026 3:50pm ET | $411.91 | 32 | $13,181.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 12, 2026 11:25am ET | $419.41 | 32 | $13,421.12 | $13,692.56 |
+$240.00 (+1.8%) |
TRAIL_STOP
5.8d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$13,692.56
Net Profit/Loss:
+$3,692.56
Total Return:
+36.93%