Compendium › Lucky Strike › XLE
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
XLE
Alpaca Tradeable

Lucky Strike's Analysis

Last Year: 2025-05-06 to present • 10 trades in period

+36.55%
Last Year Return
$10,847.65
Current Value
60%
Win Rate
$7,944.33
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 5: BULL TREND
Signals generated 2026-05-06 07:31:19

Trend-following and momentum strategies active. Ride winners.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
70 neutral
20d Trend
+11.0%
5d Trend
+2.0%
EMA20 Dist
+4.4%
ATR%
2.1%
Range Pos
76%
Bounce Ratio
3.3×
Green/Red 10d
8/2
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026

12
Lifetime
Confidence: 64%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
5.9/35
Total Return
8.1/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.9/15
Consistency
3.8/10
Raw Quality 18.7/100
× Confidence 0.64 = 12.0

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (64%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Year)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
29,080
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-05-06 → 2026-05-05
Trading Days
264 days
Data Gaps
None (10 market holidays)

Market Closed (10 days)

2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Year)

Period Start Capital
$7,944.33
Current Value
$10,847.65
Period P&L
$2,903.33
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.51

Trade Statistics (Last Year)

Trades in Period
10
Winners / Losers
6 / 4
Best Trade
+22.10%
Worst Trade
-3.51%
Avg Trade Return
+3.47%
Avg Hold Time
24.7d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Year)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$175,715.39
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$2,903.33
Net P&L (after fees)
$2,903.33
Gross Return
+36.55%
Net Return (after fees)
+36.55%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 XLE Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 264 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Year - 10 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Lucky Strike had $7,944.33 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY May 2, 2025 10:00am ET $40.18 195 $7,834.13 — — —
🔴 SELL May 21, 2025 9:30am ET $41.52 195 $8,095.91 $8,135.92 +$261.79
(+3.3%) 		TRAIL_STOP
19d held
2 🟢 BUY May 22, 2025 9:30am ET $40.45 201 $8,130.95 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 23, 2025 2:00pm ET $42.97 201 $8,636.47 $8,641.44 +$505.52
(+6.2%) 		TRAIL_STOP
32.2d held
3 🟢 BUY Jun 25, 2025 9:30am ET $42.24 204 $8,615.94 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 16, 2025 10:30am ET $43.02 204 $8,775.06 $8,800.56 +$159.12
(+1.8%) 		TRAIL_STOP
21d held
4 🟢 BUY Jul 18, 2025 11:10am ET $43.15 203 $8,759.45 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 1, 2025 10:00am ET $42.80 203 $8,687.39 $8,728.49 $-72.06
(-0.8%) 		TRAIL_STOP
14d held
5 🟢 BUY Aug 18, 2025 9:30am ET $42.33 206 $8,718.95 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 5, 2025 10:40am ET $43.70 206 $9,002.20 $9,011.74 +$283.25
(+3.2%) 		TRAIL_STOP
18d held
6 🟢 BUY Sep 9, 2025 11:30am ET $44.06 204 $8,987.22 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 22, 2025 9:30am ET $43.68 204 $8,909.94 $8,934.47 $-77.28
(-0.9%) 		TRAIL_STOP
12.9d held
7 🟢 BUY Sep 29, 2025 9:30am ET $45.57 196 $8,932.21 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 9, 2025 12:50pm ET $43.97 196 $8,618.61 $8,620.87 $-313.60
(-3.5%) 		TRAIL_STOP
10.1d held
8 🟢 BUY Oct 14, 2025 9:30am ET $42.73 201 $8,588.73 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 19, 2025 9:45am ET $44.45 201 $8,933.45 $8,965.58 +$344.72
(+4.0%) 		TRAIL_STOP
36.1d held
9 🟢 BUY Nov 20, 2025 11:25am ET $45.38 197 $8,939.86 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 15, 2025 11:10am ET $44.99 197 $8,863.03 $8,888.75 $-76.83
(-0.9%) 		TRAIL_STOP
25d held
10 🟢 BUY Jan 6, 2026 9:35am ET $46.65 190 $8,863.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 6, 2026 9:30am ET $56.96 190 $10,822.40 $10,847.65 +$1,958.90
(+22.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
59d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $10,847.65
Net Profit/Loss: +$847.65
Total Return: +8.48%
Back to Lucky Strike