Compendium › Lucky Strike › XLE
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
XLE
Alpaca Tradeable

Lucky Strike's Analysis

Last Year: 2025-09-24 to present • 4 trades in period

+21.41%
Last Year Return
$10,847.65
Current Value
50%
Win Rate
$8,934.47
Period Start
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PHASE 5: BULL TREND
Signals generated 2026-09-24 23:37:17

Trend-following and momentum strategies active. Ride winners.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
70 neutral
20d Trend
+11.0%
5d Trend
+2.0%
EMA20 Dist
+4.4%
ATR%
2.1%
Range Pos
76%
Bounce Ratio
3.3×
Green/Red 10d
8/2

Strategy Score Scored Jun 6, 2026

10
Lifetime
Confidence: 55%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
5.9/35
Total Return
8.1/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.9/15
Consistency
3.8/10
Raw Quality 18.7/100
× Confidence 0.55 = 10.3

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (55%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Year)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
24,892
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-09-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
265 days
Data Gaps
None (10 market holidays)

Market Closed (10 days)

2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Year)

Period Start Capital
$8,934.47
Current Value
$10,847.65
Period P&L
$1,913.19
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.54

Trade Statistics (Last Year)

Trades in Period
4
Winners / Losers
2 / 2
Best Trade
+22.10%
Worst Trade
-3.51%
Avg Trade Return
+5.44%
Avg Hold Time
32.5d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Year)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$72,561.78
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$1,913.19
Net P&L (after fees)
$1,913.19
Gross Return
+21.41%
Net Return (after fees)
+21.41%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 XLE Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 265 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Year - 4 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Lucky Strike had $8,934.47 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Sep 29, 2025 9:30am ET $45.57 196 $8,932.21 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 9, 2025 12:50pm ET $43.97 196 $8,618.61 $8,620.87 $-313.60
(-3.5%) 		TRAIL_STOP
10.1d held
2 🟢 BUY Oct 14, 2025 9:30am ET $42.73 201 $8,588.73 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 19, 2025 9:45am ET $44.45 201 $8,933.45 $8,965.58 +$344.72
(+4.0%) 		TRAIL_STOP
36.1d held
3 🟢 BUY Nov 20, 2025 11:25am ET $45.38 197 $8,939.86 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 15, 2025 11:10am ET $44.99 197 $8,863.03 $8,888.75 $-76.83
(-0.9%) 		TRAIL_STOP
25d held
4 🟢 BUY Jan 6, 2026 9:35am ET $46.65 190 $8,863.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 6, 2026 9:30am ET $56.96 190 $10,822.40 $10,847.65 +$1,958.90
(+22.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
59d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $10,847.65
Net Profit/Loss: +$847.65
Total Return: +8.48%
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