Compendium › Lucky Strike › XLF
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
XLF
Alpaca Tradeable

Lucky Strike's Analysis

Last Year: 2025-09-25 to present • 6 trades in period

-3.88%
Last Year Return
$11,054.95
Current Value
17%
Win Rate
$11,501.31
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 0: RANGING
Signals generated 2026-09-25 04:19:49

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 2.8
Storm
⛈️ 1 storm day in 7d
RSI(14)
44.4 neutral
20d Trend
-1.7%
5d Trend
+0.1%
EMA20 Dist
-0.7%
ATR%
1.2%
Range Pos
44%
Bounce Ratio
1.3×
Green/Red 10d
5/5
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 12, 2026

13
Lifetime
Confidence: 51%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
7.4/35
Total Return
8.8/25
Win Rate
2.9/15
Profit Factor
1.4/15
Consistency
5.3/10
Raw Quality 25.8/100
× Confidence 0.51 = 13.1

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (51%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Year)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
25,662
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-09-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
265 days
Data Gaps
None (10 market holidays)

Market Closed (10 days)

2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Year)

Period Start Capital
$11,501.31
Current Value
$11,054.95
Period P&L
$-446.36
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.16

Trade Statistics (Last Year)

Trades in Period
6
Winners / Losers
1 / 5
Best Trade
+7.67%
Worst Trade
-3.23%
Avg Trade Return
-0.62%
Avg Hold Time
20.2d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Year)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$134,485.40
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-446.36
Net P&L (after fees)
$-446.36
Gross Return
-3.88%
Net Return (after fees)
-3.88%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 XLF Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 265 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Year - 6 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Lucky Strike had $11,501.31 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Sep 22, 2025 9:30am ET $53.75 214 $11,501.43 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 10, 2025 12:00pm ET $52.55 214 $11,245.70 $11,263.77 $-255.73
(-2.2%) 		TRAIL_STOP
18.1d held
2 🟢 BUY Oct 14, 2025 3:35pm ET $53.29 211 $11,244.19 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 16, 2025 2:10pm ET $51.79 211 $10,926.64 $10,946.21 $-317.56
(-2.8%) 		TRAIL_STOP
1.9d held
3 🟢 BUY Oct 22, 2025 12:30pm ET $52.32 209 $10,934.88 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 17, 2025 11:15am ET $51.95 209 $10,857.55 $10,868.88 $-77.33
(-0.7%) 		TRAIL_STOP
26d held
4 🟢 BUY Nov 20, 2025 11:55am ET $51.44 211 $10,852.79 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 5, 2026 9:30am ET $55.38 211 $11,685.18 $11,701.28 +$832.40
(+7.7%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
45.9d held
5 🟢 BUY Jan 7, 2026 9:30am ET $56.06 208 $11,659.44 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 13, 2026 12:05pm ET $54.25 208 $11,282.96 $11,324.80 $-376.48
(-3.2%) 		TRAIL_STOP
6.1d held
6 🟢 BUY Jan 20, 2026 9:30am ET $53.73 210 $11,282.25 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 12, 2026 10:45am ET $52.44 210 $11,012.40 $11,054.95 $-269.85
(-2.4%) 		TRAIL_STOP
23.1d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $11,054.95
Net Profit/Loss: +$1,054.95
Total Return: +10.55%
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