Compendium › Lucky Strike › PM
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
PM
Alpaca Tradeable

Lucky Strike's Analysis

Last 3 Months: 2026-02-06 to present • 2 trades in period

-10.79%
Last 3 Months Return
$13,333.31
Current Value
50%
Win Rate
$14,945.39
Period Start
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PHASE 5: BULL TREND
Signals generated 2026-05-06 08:30:15

Trend-following and momentum strategies active. Ride winners.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
71.8 overbought
20d Trend
+12.7%
5d Trend
+2.2%
EMA20 Dist
+5.0%
ATR%
2.4%
Range Pos
97%
Bounce Ratio
1.2×
Green/Red 10d
8/2
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026

30
Lifetime
Confidence: 64%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
23.3/35
Total Return
12.8/25
Win Rate
1.7/15
Profit Factor
2.2/15
Consistency
6.1/10
Raw Quality 46.0/100
× Confidence 0.64 = 29.7

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (64%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,803
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-02-06 → 2026-05-05
Trading Days
61 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$14,945.39
Current Value
$13,333.31
Period P&L
$-1,612.06
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.67

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
2
Winners / Losers
1 / 1
Best Trade
+1.86%
Worst Trade
-9.58%
Avg Trade Return
-3.86%
Avg Hold Time
16.4d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$56,617.62
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-1,612.06
Net P&L (after fees)
$-1,612.06
Gross Return
-10.79%
Net Return (after fees)
-10.79%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 PM Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 61 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 2 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Lucky Strike had $14,945.39 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jan 30, 2026 9:40am ET $176.55 81 $14,300.15 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 11:30am ET $179.84 81 $14,566.64 $14,729.51 +$266.49
(+1.9%) 		TRAIL_STOP
10.1d held
2 🟢 BUY Feb 11, 2026 1:55pm ET $186.84 78 $14,573.52 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 6, 2026 9:30am ET $168.94 78 $13,177.32 $13,333.31 $-1,396.20
(-9.6%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
22.8d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $13,333.31
Net Profit/Loss: +$3,333.31
Total Return: +33.33%
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