Compendium › Lucky Strike › DIA
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
DIA
Alpaca Tradeable

Lucky Strike's Analysis

Last 6 Months: 2025-11-06 to present • 4 trades in period

+1.10%
Last 6 Months Return
$13,790.65
Current Value
75%
Win Rate
$13,640.33
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 0: RANGING
Signals generated 2026-05-06 08:31:08

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
47 neutral
20d Trend
-0.8%
5d Trend
-0.1%
EMA20 Dist
-0.5%
ATR%
1.0%
Range Pos
78%
Bounce Ratio
1.0×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026

38
Lifetime
Confidence: 58%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
26.5/35
Total Return
13.2/25
Win Rate
11.3/15
Profit Factor
8.4/15
Consistency
6.9/10
Raw Quality 66.3/100
× Confidence 0.58 = 38.4

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (58%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
13,705
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-11-06 → 2026-05-05
Trading Days
136 days
Data Gaps
None (6 market holidays)

Market Closed (6 days)

2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)

Period Start Capital
$13,640.33
Current Value
$13,790.65
Period P&L
$150.31
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.39

Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)

Trades in Period
4
Winners / Losers
3 / 1
Best Trade
+3.84%
Worst Trade
-2.70%
Avg Trade Return
+0.98%
Avg Hold Time
36.3d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$108,176.69
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$150.31
Net P&L (after fees)
$150.31
Gross Return
+1.10%
Net Return (after fees)
+1.10%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 DIA Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 136 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 6 Months - 4 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Lucky Strike had $13,640.33 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Sep 22, 2025 9:30am ET $460.73 28 $12,900.44 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 6, 2025 9:30am ET $473.04 28 $13,245.12 $13,648.46 +$344.68
(+2.7%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
45d held
2 🟢 BUY Nov 7, 2025 9:30am ET $466.89 29 $13,539.81 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 17, 2025 2:10pm ET $467.32 29 $13,552.28 $13,660.93 +$12.47
(+0.1%) 		TRAIL_STOP
10.2d held
3 🟢 BUY Dec 1, 2025 9:30am ET $474.78 28 $13,293.84 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 15, 2026 9:30am ET $493.03 28 $13,804.84 $14,171.93 +$511.00
(+3.8%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
45d held
4 🟢 BUY Jan 20, 2026 9:30am ET $486.58 29 $14,110.82 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 6, 2026 9:30am ET $473.43 29 $13,729.54 $13,790.65 $-381.28
(-2.7%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
45d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $13,790.65
Net Profit/Loss: +$3,790.65
Total Return: +37.91%
Back to Lucky Strike